downeastnc Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Hard to dislike the GFS run. While there is no major fantasy snow, you have to be happy with a bunch of short waves showing up in texas with a negatively tilted through (throughout the run). yeah we hardly get above freezing the last 5 days of the 00Z run in a lot of NC/SC, that's a big time change from where we are at right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Teleconnections look better this morning for the 06z GEFS, the mean dips negative for AO/NAO, and of course the PNA is positive. Possibly headed towards -AO/-NAO for the 2nd half of Jan, earliest the 2nd week. 06z GFS has several threats including a Miller A after truncation...The storms to watch are: @168 (cold chasing moisture) @216 (low pops off coast, brings a small snow to NC...no real stout cold source) @372 (lol at the hour, but...Miller A) Starting the new year with a split flow & stout STJ with a ++PNA that shows no signs of breaking down on the models.... it's game time the first week of Jan. I suspect the -AO/-NAO to work out if not the 2nd week of Jan, in late Jan after a SSWE that's pretty much guaranteed this winter. Congrats guys, we made it through the hell of Dec 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Teleconnections look better this morning for the 06z GEFS, the mean dips negative for AO/NAO, and of course the PNA is positive. Possibly headed towards -AO/-NAO for the 2nd half of Jan, earliest the 2nd week. 06z GFS has several threats including a Miller A after truncation...The storms to watch are: @168 (cold chasing moisture) @216 (low pops off coast, brings a small snow to NC...no real stout cold source) @372 (lol at the hour, but...Miller A) Starting the new year with a split flow & stout STJ with a ++PNA that shows no signs of breaking down on the models.... it's game time the first week of Jan. I suspect the -AO/-NAO to work out if not the 2nd week of Jan, in late Jan after a SSWE that's pretty much guaranteed this winter. Congrats guys, we made it through the hell of Dec 2015. I agree Jon it does look promising. It makes taking this torch Christmas a little more bearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 6z GFS snow amounts for the "small" event on day 8/9: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=12&model_dd=24&model_init_hh=06&fhour=216¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Not really focused on the details of this system, but more towards the change of the pattern that could even have snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 0z Euro with a stout +PNA/split flow pattern come January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 By the way, Allan has just added the GFS Parallel model at the Model Center! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 10mb heights at the 6z GFS end of run. Major strat warming over AK & pushing into the pole, potentially splitting the PV. This is going to keep a cold air supply over the NE no doubt & continue to encourage a split flow. I think we may get out flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Beat me to it Wow. Euro and GFS both look much better. 00z GFS lines up well with the Euro which is a good thing. If this setup comes to fruition, someone will cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yeah guys Euro looked pretty dang good at the end of its run if you extrapolate it Here is flip of the NCSNOW index (PNA) on Euro Ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yeah guys Euro looked pretty dang good at the end of its run if you extrapolate it Here is flip of the NCSNOW index on Euro Ensemble I leave mid Jan. so I might be doing an extra bit of wishcasting over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Beat me to it Wow. Euro and GFS both look much better. 00z GFS lines up well with the Euro which is a good thing. If this setup comes to fruition, someone will cash in. The Euro looks really good at the end of the run. Plenty of mid-level cold air already in place with a strong HP across the northern tier with the STJ loaded up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I think the 7-9th period is probably where we're going to be looking at a potential big dog occuring. Someone's going to get it good in those first 10 days of January. Too much cold air and energy flying everywhere for there to not be at least one significant or even major winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I think the 7-9th period is probably where we're going to be looking at a potential big dog occuring. Someone's going to get it good in those first 10 days of January. Too much cold air and energy flying everywhere for there to not be at least one significant or even major winter storm. I'm watching the 10-15th timeframe for something to occur, potential is there for something anytime the first week of January also with the cold setting up and plenty of juice from the STJ. Euro and GFS are classic. GFS continues to reload the cold pattern all the way through D16 and the Ensembles show similar results. Question: If I remember correctly the GEFS ensembles were upgraded just recently. As a result would they be more accurate/better than the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm watching the 10-15th timeframe for something to occur, potential is there for something anytime the first week of January also with the cold setting up and plenty of juice from the STJ. Euro and GFS are classic. GFS continues to reload the cold pattern all the way through D16 and the Ensembles show similar results. Question: If I remember correctly the GEFS ensembles were upgraded just recently. As a result would they be more accurate/better than the Euro ensembles? Higher resolution, yes. More accurate? Remains to be seen. It was just a resolution upgrade to my knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 For medium / long range... GFS: meh GFS Ensemble: better Euro / Euro Ensemble / UKMet: best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 By the way, Allan has just added the GFS Parallel model at the Model Center! It runs 3-4 hours behind normal cycle time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 For medium / long range... GFS: meh GFS Ensemble: better Euro / Euro Ensemble / UKMet: best Are there any verification scores for the GFS Ensemble vs Euro Ensemble? I can't seem to find any but would be interested in the results. The Ensembles show a little different solution in the extended range. GFS ensembles keep the cold locked in while the Euro ensembles relax the cold and slide the Canadian ridge into central Canada. Question is which one is correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Are there any verification scores for the GFS Ensemble vs Euro Ensemble? I can't seem to find any but would be interested in the results. The Ensembles show a little different solution in the extended range. GFS ensembles keep the cold locked in while the Euro ensembles relax the cold and slide the Canadian ridge into central Canada. Question is which one is correct? Eps has a better verification score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yeah guys Euro looked pretty dang good at the end of its run if you extrapolate it Here is flip of the NCSNOW index (PNA) on Euro Ensemble Bingo. That's all it will take if it can just stay spiked up for atleast a couple weeks well have several shots with the split flow. Been herding cows where the river has flooded a friends entire pasture, unreal how wet it is. So much for taking advantage of the 70 degree weather to golf before the artic hounds show up this time next week. Golf course is even flooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Eps has a better verification score Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Link? Don't have one . I'm sure someone on here can point you in the right direction. It's pretty much a know fact Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Are there any verification scores for the GFS Ensemble vs Euro Ensemble? I can't seem to find any but would be interested in the results. The Ensembles show a little different solution in the extended range. GFS ensembles keep the cold locked in while the Euro ensembles relax the cold and slide the Canadian ridge into central Canada. Question is which one is correct? Here are some sea level pressure numbers (they don't have 500mb on this site) - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pmsl_verif/index.html Other links: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml#medmin http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I would be cautious as to what will happen down the road. The sentiment earlier this week is that we just cool down to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Great to see the pattern change coming and the potential setups for storms to follow. Going to make the warm December worth it. Things flip like a switch and the rubber band snaps back in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On the 00Z GFS temps for most of us only get above 40 once from Jan 1 to Jan 9th and that's on Jan 1st after that its all highs in the mid to upper 30's for the period.....that's following 7 days of highs in the 70's, if it happens that way its gonna be rough since no one is acclimated to that kind of cold really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Changes from 12z yesterday against today are impressive, deeper trough in the east, strong ridging into AK and super ridge over Barents/Kara seas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 ^ Nice STJ signal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 On the 00Z GFS temps for most of us only get above 40 once from Jan 1 to Jan 9th and that's on Jan 1st after that its all highs in the mid to upper 30's for the period.....that's following 7 days of highs in the 70's, if it happens that way its gonna be rough since no one is acclimated to that kind of cold really. Not for mby At least I'll be able to wear something other than tank tops and flip flops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Ridge bridge is almost there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Ridge bridge is almost there! Its there...impressive, even if it's day 15 fantasy land... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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