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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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i agree with you. If any of the mets can tell me why this storm keeps getting pushed further and further. Is that a bad sign? No doubt were going into a very favorable pattern but why is it getting pushed?

Because so many disturbances are coming off the pacific and it's going to be hard for the models to key on a potential phase for a storm in the east.

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Many people have opposing views and this is great for conversation.

What some of the people complaining about the lack of info on here don't seem to understand is that discussing model output of a day 9 threat at length is just dumb.

This a million times, and I wasn't even discussing the strom, I was just pointing out that that I'd always rather have a big storm even if it's rain as opposed to suppression.
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This a million times, and I wasn't even discussing the strom, I was just pointing out that that I'd always rather have a big storm even if it's rain as opposed to suppression.

There's nothing wrong with pointing that out in banter. At least you know where to post it which makes me :)

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ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

last image of the 12z run

PV suppressed look

if the storm is slower to arrive???

How"s that RJ...

There's a cool snowstorm in between the panels you posted. It's all moot though, at this point we're just seeing that the pattern is conductive for storms and all models have vorts galore, all we need is for the chips to fall into place for one of them and we can potentially score big (as opposed to threading the needle in a terrible pattern, where you're always even more skeptical until it actually happens)
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So instead of posting 6 hours later you posted day 10. Thanks lol.

:popcorn:

 

 

all in good fun RJ

 

doorman is a troll

 and out of control because he posts his anti-snow agenda on a daily basis    :clap:

 

I get it

If the snowshoes don"t fit then 

bash the dm's ship

 

see ya feb 1st all

 

final call

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47333-met-winter-banter/page-73#entry3825219

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There's so many vorts in the flow that the models are having a tough time keying in on exactly which one we should be looking at and how the blocking sets up, western ridge and eastern trough orientation and position, etc etc. Keep expecting relatively big changes for at least the next few days.

 

This.

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:popcorn:

all in good fun RJ

doorman is a troll

and out of control because he posts his anti-snow agenda on a daily basis :clap:

I get it

If the snowshoes don"t fit then

bash the dm's ship

see ya feb 1st all

final call

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47333-met-winter-banter/page-73#entry3825219

I don't think you're trolling but occasionally you mislead on purpose to fit into whatever agenda you might have with a particular storm.

I have no issue with you posting what you feel will happen or posting verbatim model output to crush weenies dreams.

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Cool. What would you do differently?

I gave you my suggestions a few days ago in the - "our subforum moving forward" thread and a few members replied that they thought they were good ideas....but you guys just discounted them sorry to say- if not those ideas - still think there has to be some creative changes to try and get control of the discussions and make people especially METS want to visit here.........

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I gave you my suggestions a few days ago in the - "this subforum going forward thread" and a few members replied that they though they were good ideas....but you guys just discounted them sorry to say

A mets only thread. It's a great idea if we had more then 3 mets in this subforum. The rest were chased away long before Bx and I became mods. We are always open to suggestions.

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A mets only thread. It's a great idea if we had more then 3 mets in this subforum. The rest were chased away long before Bx and I became mods. We are always open to suggestions.

How about starting a "Suggestions to improve this forum" thread might come up with some really good ideas

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I like the look of it. We've seen beautiful weather patterns produce nothing and downright ugly patterns produce anomalies. Given the option of having or not having a nice setup available, I'd always choose to have it!! It will be fun to watch the models through early next week; surely a roller coaster ride to come. 

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Plenty of meteorologists have been discussing and writing about the chances for winter wx over the next couple weeks, and all the model output you'll ever need is available for free from multiple sites. I have no sympathy for people who rely on internet forums for their "analysis".

Welllll.....some of us don't wanna take our valuable time to learn to read model outputs but we want a little more than say, WABC's 3 min "analysis" with the attractive co-anchor holding her hands over her ears and joking " no snow!".  so we can come here and read what a few hobbyists and mets have to say about the weather.....in a little more detail. Plus we get to see pie fights from time to time....I know all the serious types hate them but believe me, it's one of the endearing features of this site...

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12z GFS still wants nothing to do with the first southwest energy like the euro had at 00z. Shunts it off the Florida coast and continues to focus more on the 2nd piece of energy

 

I think that system is going to come way north, but probably not far enough to save us, but I do think there is a very good chance places like ORF/RIC/ATL/RDU may get hit with that storm.  I never like seeing models sending relatively strong lows straight across the Gulf over Florida, its very rare to see that type of track unless the PV is extremely far south ala 1989 and we don't have that all at day 5-6.  The 12Z EPS had many members north of the Op today at 130 hours.

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I think that system is going to come way north, but probably not far enough to save us, but I do think there is a very good chance places like ORF/RIC/ATL/RDU may get hit with that storm. I never like seeing models sending relatively strong lows straight across the Gulf over Florida, its very rare to see that type of track unless the PV is extremely far south ala 1989 and we don't have that all at day 5-6. The 12Z EPS had many members north of the Op today at 130 hours.

I can see that...PV has a ton of confluence in our area for that storm so I think it can only get so far north...we have a better shot on the second sw. A ton of moving parts so all the players can change

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So instead of posting 6 hours later you posted day 10. Thanks lol.

I'll actually defend him on this one. Freebie ECMWF maps such as Tropical Tidbits are only available in 24 hour increments, and I know he would never pay for a subscription to the inferior European ncep-wannabie model access when all one needs to make an accurate forecast is a handwritten surface analysis and gefs spaghetti plots. I think you know as much though, just had a brain fart?
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FWIW I want to say either DT or JB or both say the Euro control is better than the operational and its eventually going to be taking over for the current Euro.  Or perhaps I am confusing models.

I believe the parallel will become the new OP and the new 46 day ensembles will replace the weeklies.

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I heard it will also run 4 times a day

 

It will be great news for the new Euro if it gets rid of the the deep lows it sometimes like to 

spin up days 6-10 that don't have the support of the EPS mean. I think the parallel

Euro is still set to go operational in March.

 

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Detailed+information+of+implementation+of+IFS+cycle+41r2

 

 

ECMWF plans to upgrade the horizontal resolution of its analyses and forecasts.The upgrade will have a horizontal resolution that translates to about 9 km for HRES and the data assimilation (the outer loop of the 4D-Var) and to about 18 km for the ENS up to day 15. The resolution of the ENS extended (day 16 up to day 46) will be about 36 km.

A new cycle of the IFS will be introduced to implement the horizontal resolution upgrade. This cycle is labelled 41r2, and includes a number of enhancements to the model and data assimilation listed herein. The detailed specification of the resolution upgrades included in IFS cycle 41r2 are:

  • Introduction of a new form of the reduced Gaussian grid, the octahedral grid, for HRES, ENS and ENS Extended;
  • Horizontal resolution of the HRES increased from TL1279 / N640 to TCO1279 / O1280, where subscript C stands for cubic and O for octahedral;
  • Horizontal resolution of the ENS increased from TL639 / N320 to TCO639 / O640 for ENS (Days 0 - 15) and from TL319 / N160 to TCO319 / O320  for ENS Extended (Days 16 - 46);
  • For the medium-range ENS there will no longer be a decrease of resolution at day 10: the ENS Days 11 - 15 will be run at the same TCO639 / O640 resolution as ENS Days 0 - 10;
  • Increase of the HRES-WAM resolution from 0.25 to 0.125 degrees and the ENS-WAM from  0.5 to 0.25 degrees;
  • Horizontal resolution of the EDA outer loop is increased from TL399 to TCO639 with its two inner loops increased from TL159 / TL159 to TL191 / TL191, respectively;
  • Horizontal resolution of the three 4DVar inner loops is increased from TL255 / TL255 / TL255 to TL255 / TL319 / TL399, respectively.

These upgrades

  • do not include any increase in the vertical resolution;
  • do not apply to the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system;
  • do not apply to the standalone wave model (HRES-SAW);
  • do apply to products from the Boundary Condition Optional Programme.

During the Release Candidate test phase forecast data will be made available close to real time via

 

The page will be updated as required. It was last changed on 8 December 2015.

For a record of changes made to this page please refer to Document versions.

Further information and advice regarding the upgrade can be obtained from User Support.

 

 

 

Timetable for implementation

The planned timetable for the implementation of IFS cycle 41r2 is as follows:

Date
Event
4 Nov 2015 Initial announcement to Member States and other forecast users 8 Dec 2015 Availability of test data in dissemination mid Mar 2016

Expected date of implementation

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Well the euro ens makes me look like a fool   :axe:

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_10.png

That doesn't negate you not posting an image of LP at hour 216 before.

You jumped over a snowstorm on the OP that's what you were taken to task over.

Not what happens on the ensembles 2 hours later. People have to trust when you analyze , if you miss a panel it's OK .

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