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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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Yeah...

I tell ya, we're gonna be flooded with Pacific air....

That was exhausting last month and very early this month, I just gave up. Can't imagine how PB felt. And, the issue is, those posters likely will not learn, and will be back at it again next year (see Doorman). Because, guess what, it doesn't take any skills to go warm and wet, or to simply go with CPC. I mean, what??? The true skill, is being able to correctly predict negative departures and snowfall during a raging basin-wide El Nino. That was impressive work by PB AND all the other forecasters who went with the cold second half. At least that's this weenie's opinion. Kudos to Snoski, though. As soon as the pattern flipped, he took an objective look at his typical warm position, and has majorly improved his post quality as a result. 

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GFS?

When it does show any significant snow the closer to the episode the better.  Keep in mind the obvious, the GFS is just one model, so we use multiple models i.e., the European, Canadian, NAM, etc, ensemble models and Model Output Statistics (MOS) when we get within a few days of the event.

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Takes a 982 just east of the bm. Gfs really developed a powerful storm

Verbatim it's rain for a chunk of this area, it kind of has the core of the cold in the Midwest and a pesky tag along low in the Ohio valley area doesn't let the high (and cold) spread eastward. It's odd to see that setup with a 984 mb storm where it is and 850's above freezing (again, not saying this will happen, just saying what it shows verbatim)
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Verbatim it's rain for a chunk of this area, it kind of has the core of the cold in the Midwest and a pesky tag along low in the Ohio valley area doesn't let the high (and cold) spread eastward. It's odd to see that setup with a 984 mb storm where it is and 850's above freezing (again, not saying this will happen, just saying what it shows verbatim)

Yes....just a ton going on right now will take a few days to figure out.

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8 days out

Of course, just saying what it shows (with this being banter and all) but the GFS and all other models kind of break down the blocking now so it's not an impossible outcome, just one of many. Let the emotional roller coaster begin, I'm personally a much bigger fan of these stroms that pop up on the model 4-5 days out, it's easier on the old heart :)
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