NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Epic -NAOs often argue for suppression. I would take modest blocking any day, especially with a nice PNA spike, negative EPO and an active STJ. the EPO is going to be trending towards neutral because of the raging El NINO - as we move along this month........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 the EPO is going to be trending towards neutral because of the raging El NINO - as we move along this month........... The only raging portion of the NINO left is 3.4 and 4. That argues for D/L forcing . That should help that NEG S of AK stay pinned and not come E. 1.2 is being shredded , it's list .9 in 2 weeks and is down to 1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I want that ULL in the Lakes to phase in. That is likely what yields some of those monster solutions on the ensembles the last few days. I agree, it seems like its close enough to be a possibility at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Another concern for the pattern moving forward which many folks are not paying attention to is the MJO forecast - The Euro's have it running very fast through favorable 8 and 1 into unfavorable 2 and 3 by the third week in January - NOT a good signal and they have been consistent with this forecast ! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The only raging portion of the NINO left is 3.4 and 4. That argues for D/L forcing . That should help that NEG S of AK stay pinned and not come E. 1.2 is being shredded , it's list .9 in 2 weeks and is down to 1.6 still going to be enough to send it into a neutral phase towards the second half of the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Dateline forcing? Poof Hybrid modoki? Poof West based forcing? Poof +1.9C peak? Poof Strong -EPO all winter? Poof GOA warm pool? Poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The only raging portion of the NINO left is 3.4 and 4. That argues for D/L forcing . That should help that NEG S of AK stay pinned and not come E. 1.2 is being shredded , it's list .9 in 2 weeks and is down to 1.6 The EPS has been improving in the PAC. If anything, it bumps the GOA low west a bit late in the run(00z). Which in turn lets the PNA/EPO look a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 still going to be enough to send it into a neutral phase towards the second half of the month... There is a break on the weeklies between the 25 thru the 5 so if it were neutral it would not shock me . However we may get a hand off to the Atlantic as the high latitude blocking is getting established The break ( prob N ) especially if there is snow cover . It will probably be a welcomed one as we get cold for 15 days between the 10 th thru 25 th and then after the break the 5 th thru 25 turns colder again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Another concern for the pattern moving forward which many folks are not paying attention to is the MJO forecast - The Euro's have it running very fast through favorable 8 and 1 into unfavorable 2 and 3 by the third week in January - NOT a good signal and they have been consistent with this forecast ! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Phase 3 is a cold signal in the east during el ninos. The further into winter, the colder the signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The only raging portion of the NINO left is 3.4 and 4. That argues for D/L forcing . That should help that NEG S of AK stay pinned and not come E. 1.2 is being shredded , it's list .9 in 2 weeks and is down to 1.6 This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The EPS has been improving in the PAC. If anything, it bumps the GOA low west a bit late in the run(00z). Which in turn lets the PNA/EPO look a bit better. Yes but if we lose the higher heights in AK for a week , it heads towards N in the means but being so far W , you will never torch . The Atlantic may take over by that time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I want that ULL in the Lakes to phase in. That is likely what yields some of those monster solutions on the ensembles the last few days.Yes. This is one possible way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I want that ULL in the Lakes to phase in. That is likely what yields some of those monster solutions on the ensembles the last few days. Yep. In order to get those extreme solutions, we need the shortwave to either slow down or have the ULL to speed up to achieve a phase. We won't have this ironed out till at least Wednesday so until then expect models to be all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Dateline forcing? Poof Hybrid modoki? Poof West based forcing? Poof +1.9C peak? Poof Strong -EPO all winter? Poof GOA warm pool? D/L forcing . Verified Monthly peak prediction FROM MAY page 3 enso 1.8 to 2 was warmer than everyone from 6 months away. You were 1.5 that was a CRUSH by me . You have -EPO. Verified You have been embarrassed in here , how do you keep posting . You really look like a tool at this point You are reminding the board of the calls that verified , again I feel bad for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 This Snowbust still thinks it's 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yep. In order to get those extreme solutions, we need the shortwave to either slow down or have the ULL to speed up to achieve a phase. We won't have this ironed out till at least Wednesday so until then expect models to be all over the place. Model mayhem is the preferred mode at the moment. I won't be giving a serious attend to any output until Wednesday. Things should be better sampled by then and the models should get a clue as to which shortwave(s) to hone in on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yes but if we lose the higher heights in AK for a week , it heads towards N in the means but being so far W , you will never torch . The Atlantic may take over by that time . Agree. If we lose the higher heights in AK, it doesn't look to stay that way is all I was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Snowbust still thinks it's 1998. You FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Agree. If we lose the higher heights in AK, it doesn't look to stay that way is all I was saying.You may only head towards neutral but never lose the - .Check out where all the forcing is . Directly N bet 160 and 180 is where that NEG sits and never moves . Ventrice tweeted Euro seasonal out and much Colder than its DEC outlook. If that start warm is real , Feb will be cold and this winter will end up being one of the greatest reversals that we have ever seen . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Model mayhem is the preferred mode at the moment. I won't be giving a serious attend to any output until Wednesday. Things should be better sampled by then and the models should get a clue as to which shortwave(s) to hone in on.agreed plus we haven't seen this type of pattern in quite some time - so even the highest skilled METS can't be certain how this will all play out the second half of the winter which by the way begins next weekend - would not be surprising if we see 0 snowfall out of this pattern or 3 feet total or more anybodies guess as of this date........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 0z Euro Para is a coastal hugger. Rain for the coast and a lot of snow just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 This Elucidate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 0z Euro Para is a coastal hugger. Rain for the coast and a lot of snow just inland. Very disappointing if this verifies. For the coast, I mean. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 You're making up an argument. Red herring. I said the " epic" looking -NAO and blocking isn't looking so great anymore. I'm actually a little surprised because I was intrigued by the block but it's up and vanished like a fart in the wind. What's left is a marginal period of potential storminess and rather modest and stale cold. We need better with this El Niño. Unless you are interior or particularly elevated next weekend is a dead horse. It's just too mild/stale. We don't want a strong -NAO. That would shunt the storms to our south. You are already giving up a storm for the coast 162 + hours out? Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 You may only head towards neutral but never lose the - . Check out where all the forcing is . Directly N bet 160 and 180 is where that NEG sits and never moves . Ventrice tweeted Euro seasonal out and much Colder than its DEC outlook. If that start warm is real , Feb will be cold and this winter will end up being one of the greatest reversals that we have ever seen . Yeah, your right about the forcing. I've been keeping an eye on that for over a month. I recall discussions about basin wide ninos having the bulk of it just east of 180 in the ENSO thread. It sure seems to be where we are this year as illustrated below. This year is west of 1998 and even 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 0z Euro Para is a coastal hugger. Rain for the coast and a lot of snow just inland. How does NYC do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 How does NYC do? Rain. It's also earlier than the op run. Para starts at 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Dusting to 1 inch on the Nam for the clipper for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yeah, your right about the forcing. I've been keeping an eye on that for over a month. I recall discussions about basin wide ninos having the bulk of it just east of 180 in the ENSO thread. It sure seems to be where we are this year as illustrated below. This year is west of 1998 and even 1983. OlrChiVdiv_tp200hPa_20160108.gif 98 forced between 120 and 140 . Night and day. Even the CFS forces between 160 - 180 the rest of the way. We are in a good spot to support the Euros look at 500 the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 0z Euro Para is a coastal hugger. Rain for the coast and a lot of snow just inland. where is the position of the 50/50 low and the strength ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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