40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think miller a events are more easily modeled at long leads. Miller b events have been know to emerge into existence out of nowhere at the 11th hour. Last year being a prime example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Nice! Thanks. I'll try to avoid getting my hopes up for anything more than 96 hours out. Jackpot maps 10 days out are nice to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Everyone ready for the 18z gofus mega Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yeah, Miller B's seem to have so many more variables...and clock you folks in New England more than NYC. I keep my hopes in check with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Everyone ready for the 18z gofus mega Storm It's why I live. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yeah, Miller B's seem to have so many more variables...and clock you folks in New England more than NYC. I keep my hopes in check with these storms. Yea, but with the intensity of this el nino, we should have an immense STJ presence, so miller a events should rule the season. This is why I really like you guys down into Baltimore and DC this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Before we head towards the unexpected, we have a huge quick warmup with some heavy rains possible. More records will be broken before the pattern completely changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Dont forget, the GFS did an outstanding job with PD2 14 days in advance! Still have the maps somewhere on a disk. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Somehow I don't recall that. I do remember 48 hours out it was showing next to nothing for New York city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Somehow I don't recall that. I do remember 48 hours out it was showing next to nothing for New York cityIt showed in the GFS' long long range for a few days actually, then completely lost it as you noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Before we head towards the unexpected, we have a huge quick warmup with some heavy rains possible. More records will be broken before the pattern completely changes. At least the weather in general is more interesting this month. Last month was like watching paint dry or grass grow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Gfs shows 63 middle New Jersey for Sunday.pretty insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Gfs shows 6 middle New Jersey for Sunday.pretty insane Translation please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think he meant 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Translation please Lol middle 60s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Continues to be much drier this Sunday than the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Gfs still shows snows for Wednesday,but I'm only loaded to panel hour 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 At least the weather in general is more interesting this month. Last month was like watching paint dry or grass grow You'd think a landscaping guy would enjoy watching grass grow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 63, sorry didn't see my error! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 18z GFS looking improved for the 16th threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Before we head towards the unexpected, we have a huge quick warmup with some heavy rains possible. More records will be broken before the pattern completely changes. This is so stupid. The pattern changed on Jan 1 . A storm cutting to the lakes with a 3 day warm up is not an extention of Dec . You guys have to stop with this stupidity. We may get cold/wintry after the 10th , but that doesn't preclude any single storm from cutting , but the fact that you swing the trough right back through means that's the pattern you are in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The GFS is significantly more amplified on Friday. Should be a nice run. Everything looks much less suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Massive ridge out West, stretching all the way up into far NW Canada. Block over SE Canada and a strong Southern stream S/W. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looks like this run will be a near miss. 996mb about 100 miles East of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Massive ridge out West, stretching all the way up into far NW Canada. Block over SE Canada and a strong Southern stream S/W. Fun times ahead.i know you are only reporting what your seeing on the model but why is it that the 18z GFS is the only model showing potential, and the euro and 6z 12z GFS show less appealing outcomes? Why is it just the 18z day in and day out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 i know you are only reporting what your seeing on the model but why is it that the 18z GFS is the only model showing potential, and the euro and 6z 12z GFS show less appealing outcomes? Why is it just the 18z day in and day out I've seen this storm on cmc and navgem as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 i know you are only reporting what your seeing on the model but why is it that the 18z GFS is the only model showing potential, and the euro and 6z 12z GFS show less appealing outcomes? Why is it just the 18z day in and day out There are so many lobes of energy crashing into the backside of energy swinging through on the STJ that the models will not catch the one of two that will turn N outside 5 days . This is not your run of the mill pattern setting up . Actually it`s an anomalous one . OP runs 5 days out are going to make your head spin . You may see a different snowstorm pop up every day outside day 5 - 7 - 9 -11 etc before the models can grab the real one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 i know you are only reporting what your seeing on the model but why is it that the 18z GFS is the only model showing potential, and the euro and 6z 12z GFS show less appealing outcomes? Why is it just the 18z day in and day out Everg model shows potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Everg model shows potentialwhat I mean why is it only the 18z with the monster storms like yesterday afternoon I know the potential is there But it seems only the 18z gives us the true weekie Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 what I mean why is it only the 18z with the monster storms like yesterday afternoon I know the potential is there But it seems only the 18z gives us the true weekie Storm I think its just a coincidence. It had the storm on other runs as well, just less favorable outcomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yep, loads of potential in this pattern. Merely timing issues at this point and models having a tough time with speed and determining which pieces of energy interact. There will be OTS solutions, suppressed solutions, and SECS/MECS solutions coming over the next several days. Cutter solution wouldnt make much sense based on strength/position of -nao unless something changes drastically with the blocking. Fun times ahead! Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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