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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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Josh just posted on twitter: "Main question: what's strongest building in Perula & La Fortuna? We're in unknown territory." Aye, yai, yai

probably the jail, time to go get arrested.

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Josh just posted on twitter: "Main question: what's strongest building in Perula & La Fortuna? We're in unknown territory." Aye, yai, yai

 

I understand he's a pro at this type of thing but I've always been afraid for his safety during these really intense ones..especially in areas that aren't as well developed or have less than high building codes. And I'd be lying if i said i wasn't worried about it this time if he manages to be at ground zero. It's bad enough it has 200mph sustained winds but it has gusts up to 215 knots..that's 250mph. There aren't many structures that could survive that anywhere. Wherever he's at, i hope it has a basement but far enough away to not be hit by the storm surge. Not sure of the topography  down that way and how prone it is to a storm surge but regardless the surge and wave action is  going to be a much bigger deal than usual. 

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Yikes.

My sister has a house in Puerto Vallarta.

I once saw Puerto Vallarta in a episode of Love Boat. Crazy.

In this case the correct choice by Chaser Josh is to abort mission and head north west as fast as possible. Any video or tweets in the midst of this unprecedented beast are not worth the relative risk. Being in the zone of catastrophic destruction will do no good, assuming one survives.

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I understand he's a pro at this type of thing but I've always been afraid for his safety during these really intense ones..especially in areas that aren't as well developed or have less than high building codes. And I'd be lying if i said i wasn't worried about it this time if he manages to be at ground zero. It's bad enough it has 200mph sustained winds but it has gusts up to 215 knots..that's 250mph. There aren't many structures that could survive that anywhere. Wherever he's at, i hope it has a basement but far enough away to not be hit by the storm surge. Not sure of the topography down that way and how prone it is to a storm surge but regardless the surge and wave action is going to be a much bigger deal than usual.

@ExtremeStorms: @iCyclone if nothing changed it would put you about 2 miles from center point #Patrica https://t.co/A3c0skObbd

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Worthy of the record-breaking intensity e6b877e7232280b80b07c3705f6a4fc7.jpg

Sent from my SM-G925V

 

Can you send me the link for image source?

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On land I am not sure anyone is going to see 200 mph sustained, but I agree it should be an abort regardless as you are talking about EF-4 to EF-5 type of damage essentially.

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Looking at the NHC's hurricane strength wind field, I would guess this thing was a cat 2, if I didn't know any better. That's some good news at least, especially since the more heavily populated areas are likely getting a glancing blow.

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Looking at the NHC's hurricane strength wind field, I would guess this thing was a cat 2, if I didn't know any better. That's some good news at least, especially since the more heavily populated areas are likely getting a glancing blow.

Could weaken and expand a bit in the event of an ERC attempt, which may actually be a worst case...

Thanks for that imagery, btw....

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Amazing, looks like the pressure kept falling even after I went to sleep. Te intensity has probably matched WIlma and the Labor day Hurricane now,  everyone is a weather weenie today.

 

Also, I think 200mph is an exaggeration, none of the dropsondes were close to that.

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Looking at the NHC's hurricane strength wind field, I would guess this thing was a cat 2, if I didn't know any better. That's some good news at least, especially since the more heavily populated areas are likely getting a glancing blow.

What does wind field have anything to do with intensity, though?

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Looks like it is making a sharp turn east on the last few frames, hopefully that is a temporary wobble.

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Amazing, looks like the pressure kept falling even after I went to sleep. Te intensity has probably matched WIlma and the Labor day Hurricane now,  everyone is a weather weenie today.

 

Also, I think 200mph is an exaggeration, none of the dropsondes were close to that.

 

I have to disagree. 880 mb with that small of an eye? Those winds are probably insane.

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If you look at google maps and street view of Perula....I hope Josh can find something there to be safe if it comes in just north....there does not seem to be anything I would trust...

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I have to disagree. 880 mb with that small of an eye? Those winds are probably insane.

 

Peak winds may only be within 5 miles of the eye, but a direct hit at those velocities would be like an EF-5 lasting 30 minutes rather than 30 seconds.  Incredible!

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My original expectations for weakening to 130-135 kt before landfall look to go down the drain. Because the cyclone is heading parallel to the shear vectors and is south of the jet entrance region, any increase in vertical shear should not impact the core very much before landfall this afternoon. If anything, the storm may be stronger now than it's ever been, at least in terms of central pressure. The only things that may preclude landfall at 175+ kt are likely the possibility of an ERC and/or frictional effects from land, but the former looks less likely to get much underway before landfall. Plus, given satellite indicators that the movement is just east of due north, this looks to make landfall earlier, as has been mentioned previously. I can't see any reason as to why this won't make landfall as a formidable Category 5 (I'm thinking 150-155 kt, but this could be a bit conservative in the end).

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Perula is a no go.

 

They are checking another town further inland.

The thing is, will it matter? I looked at the local topography and the problem is elevation increases pretty quick...even though they will be further inland..it means they get into the higher winds right above the surface so it's a wash probably..especially considering how fast this thing is moving. Pretty solid east jog on satellite though so maybe it goes south of where they are?

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