Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 EC, it's just a 500mb height isobar. Ewall adds special colors to 528, 552, and 576. It's a bit arbitrary for our purposes. Thicknesses are different. When you see a 540 thickness line on a plot it generally means snow profile unless the surface sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Euro weeklies for the 1st week of December are not bad. +PNA/-EPO with split flow. Doesn't look like much cold air in Canada though. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46257-winter-of-15-16/?p=3745508 Didn't someone say the weeklies are jumping around a lot recently though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Euro weeklies for the 1st week of December are not bad. +PNA/-EPO with split flow. Doesn't look like much cold air in Canada though. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46257-winter-of-15-16/?p=3745508 Didn't someone say the weeklies are jumping around a lot recently though? 09/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 09/10 BOOM goes the dynamite. I'm telling you...JB's on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Euro weeklies for the 1st week of December are not bad. +PNA/-EPO with split flow. Doesn't look like much cold air in Canada though. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46257-winter-of-15-16/?p=3745508 Didn't someone say the weeklies are jumping around a lot recently though? The end of the Euro ensembles show this subtle shift to a -EPO as well...that would be around 11/20...not buying it yet, but it's a change that has started to show up in the past 2-3 runs, and it got stronger last night. If the ensembles are correct, but just happen to be rushing the pattern change, then it would bode well for a colder pattern in early December. But you'd like to see several more cycles of ensemble runs showing that pattern...and then eventually somewhere down the line get that pattern inside of 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 The end of the Euro ensembles show this subtle shift to a -EPO as well...that would be around 11/20...not buying it yet, but it's a change that has started to show up in the past 2-3 runs, and it got stronger last night. If the ensembles are correct, but just happen to be rushing the pattern change, then it would bode well for a colder pattern in early December. But you'd like to see several more cycles of ensemble runs showing that pattern...and then eventually somewhere down the line get that pattern inside of 10 days. Great patterns are wasted on us before December 10th-15th anyway. So, I'd be perfectly content if we slowly evolve the pattern between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Great patterns are wasted on us before December 10th-15th anyway. So, I'd be perfectly content if we slowly evolve the pattern between now and then. Agreed but we definitely want the evolution sooner rather than later. Even if it means "wasting a pattern". As ORH so aptly put it....we don't want a small galaxy parked over AK or the GOA to have any staying power. All systems go for that to happen for at least a time mid month. The faster that breaks down the better. We certainly don't want to have any persistence to that type of look as we head towards Dec. Transient ugliness during Nov is just fine though. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Let me go ahead and express my apologies to all of you now. I bought a snow-blower this weekend, and a pretty heavy duty one at that. There is no chance it snows this winter or next. Possibly we will see it snow here again one day, but not before the warranty expires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Doug released their winter forecast from channel 4, and shows 20-25 for DC, 15 S & E with of course 30-50" around FDK, HGR, and OKV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Doug released their winter forecast from channel 4, and shows 20-25 for DC, 15 S & E with of course 30-50" around FDK, HGR, and OKV Very bullish for the second half of winter http://wtop.com/weather/2015/11/winter-forecast-winter-will-snowier-last/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 HELP US.png Where has Wes been this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Doug is good, he was with NBC in Philly with Hurricane who tends to be conservative so that's a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Where has Wes been this year? He's popped in a couple times recently, but he normally doesn't post much until late in the year. Too much golf and fishing to do to bother with the likes of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Can't say I'm a fan of waiting for patterns to produce, but I'm bullish too on a backloaded winter. Historically Feb is the time we see our best storms, and with an active stj and a good period of pattern we open the door for a couple of events that put us over the top. I think we get enough of an everything but that magical NAO to have another good run. Temps could be AN, but it really doesn't matter all that much to me if we're +1 or 2 on the month--what matters is getting the moisture in place and a well timed dip in the AO/NAO. I wouldn't be surprised if we sneak in a few inches in December (especially fall line-west), but my gut says it'll be about a four- to five-week period in late-January into February (maybe something like 1/25 to 2/25) that will be our bread and butter, with another chance for a snowstorm in March. I know...really going out on a limb with that! But it could be a month to remember...or a miserable washout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Anyone who has lived in this area for any length of time, (I'm going on my 53rd year here in Rockville.) Knows that "real winter" doesn't start until mid Jan. Anything before that is rare & few & far between. Basically we have 6-8 week window to cash in. Just my observation from living here so many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Very bullish for the second half of winter http://wtop.com/weather/2015/11/winter-forecast-winter-will-snowier-last/ Kammerer thinks Southern Maryland will also get more snow than usual, but probably between 10 to 15 inches total. Not to be nitpicky but this comment doesn't make a whole lot of sense, considering southern MD averages between 10-19 inches of snow a year (about 10" at the southern tip of St. Mary's, about 17" in my area, for example). Anyway, are we doing a snowfall contest this year? Figured one would be popping up by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 HELP US.png Ha! Pretty funny. One small addition, if I may...that's no moon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 November JAMSTEC out. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Choose temp or precip on the drop down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 November JAMSTEC out. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Choose temp or precip on the drop down. Acceptable... Would take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Is there a site where previous El Nino events are listed as being west-based, east-based, or basin wide? I've been trying to find this info online but come up empty-handed. (I'm not making a forecast- this is just to research for myself) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Outlook Very thorough outlook which I appreciate since it gives me the opportunity to continue learning. I agree with your overall outlook as I think this will be a backloaded winter. Thanks for posting, I'll be following your blog throughout winter. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Was curious to see where we were on temps so far for the month DCA: +6.0 BWI: +6.9 IAD: +6.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Was curious to see where we were on temps so far for the month DCA: +6.0 BWI: +6.9 IAD: +6.1 Love those temps for November. Love those kinds of departures a lot more in November than in June... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Was curious to see where we were on temps so far for the month DCA: +6.0 BWI: +6.9 IAD: +6.1 complete opposite of Nov. 97.....so....there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Is there a site where previous El Nino events are listed as being west-based, east-based, or basin wide? I've been trying to find this info online but come up empty-handed. (I'm not making a forecast- this is just to research for myself) There is a graphic that was posted in the NYC winter thread. I used it in my outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 There is a graphic that was posted in the NYC winter thread. I used it in my outlook. I just found it- thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 complete opposite of Nov. 97.....so....there's that. I assume '97 was BN for November before becoming an epic failure the rest of the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I assume '97 was BN for November before becoming an epic failure the rest of the winter? December was decent up here, anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.