Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion

[AvantHiatus]

The biggest issue with a '57-'58 analog (that Zwyts keeps poking fun at) is that it would support a pretty bad vortex position in the N PAC. That season had some exceptionally good blocking on the Atlantic side. Esp in the second half of winter.

I don't think I'd be going for a big -NAO this year given the stubborn situation in the North Atlantic.

Run that against 1980-2010 normals and the picture is different. I somehow find some of these posts disingenuous. We need the -NAO back to replace what appears to be a lost -EPO regime. All said and known thus far tho, nickle and dime cancel, week long arctic outbreak cancel.

[Fozz]

Run that against 1980-2010 normals and the picture is different. I somehow find some of these posts disingenuous. We need the -NAO back to replace what appears to be a lost -EPO regime. All said and known thus far tho, nickle and dime cancel, week long arctic outbreak cancel.

 

He just went into great detail explaining the Pacific pattern and other teleconnections including what would need to happen with the NAO.

[AvantHiatus]

He just went into great detail explaining the Pacific pattern and other teleconnections including what would need to happen with the NAO.

I just think the -EPO influence is understated, we crushed some cold records during a record warm regime globally in JFM 2015. A neutral NAO with a +PNA is not going to get the job done for most especially if the EPO goes full on+. A reversion to the mean of sorts.

[Deck Pic]

I think it certainly can't hurt....but yeah, I'm definitely a bit cautious regarding the big N PAC SST/EPO connection this winter.

 

The good news for the Mid-Atlantic is that I do not think it will require last year's PAC pattern to get a decent winter. A couple to three weeks of a solid +PNA with enough cross polar flow to make the airmasses real (i.e. basically a neutral EPO or better) and that is a pattern you can feast off of in short time with the type of STJ we are likely to see this winter. That's such a huge factor for DCA snow...the big STJ.

 

It would be nice if we can get some real blocking on the Atlantic side, but even something like an Iceland/UK block would be adequate...ala Feb 2003. Classic month with a couple weeks of real good PAC and a raging STJ.

 

 

But yeah, I don't think we're going to be seeing a bunch of -6 months this winter.

 

yeah...even in 97-98, the +PDO gave us a +PNA and I think helped neutralize the EPO....not to get too weenie-ish, but I do think we got a bit unlucky in 97-98 given how much precip we got down here...It seemed like the pattern just never synced up....when the EPO was negative, the PNA was negative...when the PNA was positive, the EPO was gross (end of December).....Even here, there is a 6 week period where we can manage with fairly fetid air masses..Part of me says, let's get the Nino as stupid as possible and see what happens...

[mitchnick]

For all the gnashing of teeth wrt the raging NINO, things sure look a whole lot better all over the PAC in the last month imho. Top map is from 9/30 and bottom one from today (actually dated 10/26).

[Bob Chill]

I don't think I'd be going for a big -NAO this year given the stubborn situation in the North Atlantic.

 

The whys are obviously over my head but it's pretty easy to pick out multi year periods where the NAO in DJF is biased one way or another. The intense blocking of 09-10 through 10-11 seems like a distant memory and that things should be prone to flip but you don't have to look too far back to find a much longer stretch than were in now. The late 70's through mid 80's overall were pretty friendly overall. Then came the 87-88 through 94-95 stretch which was pretty wretched. 8 consecutive years with virtually no help from the NAO. 

 

Obviously that doesn't mean we can't produce down here anyways but I'm not so sure that can be the case during a strong nino. As you said in another post, the pac shouldn't look like the last 2 years because of nino climo. I certainly don't expect it to. And past history shows that the current stretch of +nao winters is far from out of the ordinary and can easily continue. But as you and Matt already said, we can still do ok in the heart of winter relying on a simple +pna and some luck. 

 

When I looked back at bigger storms here many of them came on phase changes of the NAO so rooting for a big - # isn't really the best way to go. I really don't care what the monthly means are for the NAO this winter as long is it's not just stuck + with immobile neg pressure anoms where we don't want them. Transient blocks work just fine around here. 

[midatlanticweather]

For all the gnashing of teeth wrt the raging NINO, things sure look a whole lot better all over the PAC in the last month imho. Top map is from 9/30 and bottom one from today (actually dated 10/26).

This is starting to look better! Hope it continues!

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just looked at my totals from last year...no events in Dec. I never record a trace, but I don't even remember having flurries.

 

Not a single flake here during the entire month of Dec.  I remember posting in that thread that it was the worst Dec.in my lifetime.  It was beyond pitiful.  If detailed records existed for this area, I imagine it would be difficult to find a Dec.in the record books out here for which there wasn't even a T recorded.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I think I remember that....seems like that was all east of here.

I really hope the Dec predictions are a bust. I really like a Dec/Jan winter.

 

11/26 gave us about 3" here.  Gave us a White T-day.

[eurojosh]

I'm aware of sites like this

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html

 

and this

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/us/

 

But are there any sites that show average snowcover by date?  e.g. you can enter "January 15th" and it shows you the average snowcover across the CONUS for that date.

[Bob Chill]

This is the best site I know of for climo and anomaly plots back to 1999

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2015&ui_day=299&ui_set=0

[eurojosh]

This is the best site I know of for climo and anomaly plots back to 1999

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2015&ui_day=299&ui_set=0

 

Thanks!  It's a bit Atari-esque in the graphics dept, but better than what I was looking at.

[Ian]

I wonder if we will really see a torch nov or just a really warm start that makes it hard to get back to normal. If storm frequency ramps up as it tends to do in nov in strong nino might end up just being fleeting true torch. Euro weeklies sort of show that type of progression with main 500 anomalies in the coming stretch then breaking down.

[mitchnick]

I wonder if we will really see a torch nov or just a really warm start that makes it hard to get back to normal. If storm frequency ramps up as it tends to do in nov in strong nino might end up just being fleeting true torch. Euro weeklies sort of show that type of progression with main 500 anomalies in the coming stretch then breaking down.

End of November warm breaking down into a colder regime by 12/10 sounds familiar and good. Just let it happen!

[Ian]

End of November warm breaking down into a colder regime by 12/10 sounds familiar and good. Just let it happen!

The forecast Pac is almost opposite Nov2009. At least for the coming torch.. Hard to say the month ends up looking like thaf.

[mitchnick]

The forecast Pac is almost opposite Nov2009. At least for the coming torch.. Hard to say the month ends up looking like thaf.

I just want the torch and see where we go from there.

I have to admit that I am left with a sour taste after typing that.

[AnthonyDabbundo]

Even though I live near Philly, I spend most of my time here because the NY forum is unbearable and  the Philly forum is often very quiet. Appreciate the quality discussions in here. I remain thinking that we can get to clime despite a winter that may not be perfectly aligned. Anyone screaming 2010 is ridiculous, but I also think this will not be a 1997-1998 either. We'll get a few mod-big storms but snowpack won't last long once we torch a few times 

[Amped]

AUG-OCT 2015 had very few rainy days compared to most other years, however we did get the biggest rainstorm I've ever seen on 9/29.  Anyone else get the idea winter snowfall is also mostly luck?

[AnthonyDabbundo]

AUG-OCT 2015 had very few rainy days compared to most other years, however we did get the biggest rainstorm I've ever seen on 9/29.  Anyone else get the idea winter snowfall is also mostly luck?

it's very much luck... until march last year I had below average temps and above average precip... and below average snowfall. It just never aligned. Then, March gave me 15 inches and turned things around.

[mattie g]

In case folks are interested. Good read IMO.

 

 

Semi-educated guess is that it is more of a very warm start that trends cooler toward normal or maybe a hair below as we close out the month. Euro and GFS ens kinda show that progression too.

 

DIrect link to the forecast for those of us who'd prefer not to have to go to Twatter first:

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Winter1415/Winter201516Forecast.pdf

[wxdude64]

11/26 gave us about 3" here.  Gave us a White T-day.

Yep, same here, 3.6 for a white Thanksgiving, then a whopping 0.7 on 12-9 and a few days with flurries. Dec was nasty last year.

[WinterWxLuvr]

DIrect link to the forecast for those of us who'd prefer not to have to go to Twatter first:

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Winter1415/Winter201516Forecast.pdf

Uh?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yep, same here, 3.6 for a white Thanksgiving, then a whopping 0.7 on 12-9 and a few days with flurries. Dec was nasty last year.

We were talking about December.

[famartin]

Uh?

 

Well, they say only twits use Twitter, so...

[WinterWxLuvr]

Well, they say only twits use Twitter, so...

So who uses..

 

Never mind 

[midatlanticweather]

Snow day! Nike commercial - fun -

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have an issue with the persistence argument for a positive NAO, then out of the other side of the mouth, reiterating that the EPO can not be negative again.

[Deck Pic]

I have an issue with the persistence argument for a positive NAO, then out of the other side of the mouth, reiterating that the EPO can not be negative again.

 

why?  The persistence argument makes a lot more sense when talking about the AO/NAO...mod/strong Ninos have a pretty strong correlation with a + or neutral EPO...Plus why would anyone expect a repeat of such an outlier?  Perhaps, the insane +PDO (which has a minor correlation with -EPO) might help keep the nastiness at bay, but with the strength of the Nino it is hard to make a compelling case that the EPO will average negative, especially markedly so...

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

why?  The persistence argument makes a lot more sense when talking about the AO/NAO...mod/strong Ninos have a pretty strong correlation with a + or neutral EPO...Plus why would anyone expect a repeat of such an outlier?  Perhaps, the insane +PDO (which has a minor correlation with -EPO) might help keep the nastiness at bay, but with the strength of the Nino it is hard to make a compelling case that the EPO will average negative, especially markedly so...

 

 

epo+.png

I think he's saying that if that's true about the EPO, why wouldn't the same logic hold for the NAO/AO?  I can't remember where, but just the other day I saw mention of the NAO being in a long term positive phase.  Seems like a legit point that he's making.  

 

Or is there more to it?

[Deck Pic]

I think he's saying that if that's true about the EPO, why wouldn't the same logic hold for the NAO/AO?  I can't remember where, but just the other day I saw mention of the NAO being in a long term positive phase.  Seems like a legit point that he's making.  

 

Or is there more to it?

 

I know what Ray is saying...I am countering that there is at least one basis for persistence not working for the EPO, and it isn't necessarily a matter of hypocrisy or agenda or doublespeak..