TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks fine for a couple of inches SE of bos pvd line.... Won't take much to achieve that with decent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's been locked in the last 3 runs, Hard to toss that aside. Looks reasonable to me anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 when box paints me 3-4" and trends move west for 4 runs in a row I think every single person bought them, not "disappointed" where it effects me in life lol, but how could you not buy them , the meteorology was solid. I mean from here it looks like you just lucked out with your early call now if this trends east. I never bought it. Look back at what Messenger said earlier....always was likely nceep guidance was overtrending, then the EURO, which has demonstrated a propensity to be too amped this season, confirmed it on it's relatively meager 00z run. Anyway, never wise to count on inverted troughs. I have a lot to learn myself, and miss sometimes, but I was conident that this would not be one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It'll fall tonight. It might only be like 0.7", but since it only takes 0.1" to achieve 100" at BOS, it's not a tall task. Hopefully it's a burst that gives them 3" to make it a bit more exciting. more exciting would be a JSPIN .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 You end up getting the middle finger more then actually sitting under the middle finger in these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think you should grab at least an inch or two. Not a bad little event down that way. Verbatim it's probably 3-5" here. It'll be fluffy, and I seem to be in a very good spot for about .2" QPF. As you said this played out by the "near whiff" playbook. Euro grudges west, everything else goes too far west before correcting. Euro is a smidge better this run, GFS as too, I'd say I'm a lock here for about .18 to .25" QPF and will still need to watch banding. Nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Verbatim it's probably 3-5" here. It'll be fluffy, and I seem to be in a very good spot for about .2" QPF. As you said this played out by the "near whiff" playbook. Euro grudges west, everything else goes too far west before correcting. Euro is a smidge better this run, GFS as too, I'd say I'm a lock here for about .18 to .25" QPF and will still need to watch banding. Nice little event. Someone will get a lolli of 5"+...probably close to your area, but anywhere from the Cape up through Essex county and back SW to about Newport RI is fair game. I think the 128 belt west fo BOS is probably just going to get a fluffy inch or two...Logan airport could get a surprise for sure though as well. We'll just have to watch the trends tonight on radar, streamlines, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 You end up getting the middle finger more then actually sitting under the middle finger in these Exactly. Once in awhile they work out...but never, ever expect it. I grabbed 7" of snow from a Dec 19, 2007 inverted deal, but that is the last one I can recall cashing in on. More often than not, they are a providional solution...a mere manifestation of the models' inability to see through the fog of chaos that is the atmosphere. But when they do actuallly develop it is probably: 1) Not where they were modeled. 2) Not over you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Someone will get a lolli of 5"+...probably close to your area, but anywhere from the Cape up through Essex county and back SW to about Newport RI is fair game. I think the 128 belt west fo BOS is probably just going to get a fluffy inch or two...Logan airport could get a surprise for sure though as well. We'll just have to watch the trends tonight on radar, streamlines, etc. Yep. The trends are still solid. The Euro if anything looks a little better, even the models that came east some still have a good banding and snow growth signal. This will be another one of those systems with some high intensity bands covering a relatively small portion of the readership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Exactly. Once in awhile they work out...but never, ever expect it. I grabbed 7" of snow from a Dec 19, 2007 inverted deal, but that is the last one I can recall cashing in on. More often than not, they are a providional solution...a mere manifestation of the models' inability to see through the fog of chaos that is the atmosphere. But when they do actuallly develop it is probably: 1) Not where they were modeled. 2) Not over you. I have had a few over the years but its much more favorable for the areas to my east then here typically, And your right on where they end up, Typically not where modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I never bought it. Look back at what Messenger said earlier....always was likely nceep guidance was overtrending, then the EURO, which has demonstrated a propensity to be too amped this season, confirmed it on it's relatively meager 00z run. Anyway, never wise to count on inverted troughs. I have a lot to learn myself, and miss sometimes, but I was conident that this would not be one of those times. Well, i like when ppl stick their necks out a bit and stand by a call. Unless this ticks east again at 18z or 0z we may be looking at now cast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 FWIW the HRRR and RAP are both pretty far east in their LR, which is interesting given that they are usually NW and amped at the end of their runs. They've definitely had a spotty record at best this winter so I wouldn't take them too seriously, but worth mentioning I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Someone will get a lolli of 5"+...probably close to your area, but anywhere from the Cape up through Essex county and back SW to about Newport RI is fair game. I think the 128 belt west fo BOS is probably just going to get a fluffy inch or two...Logan airport could get a surprise for sure though as well. We'll just have to watch the trends tonight on radar, streamlines, etc. 1-2" seems good, I never spent much time on this one.. but nice refresher I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Was it supposed to snow sometime soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'd gladly take P04 on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Made a map for this mainly to play around with new formats but figured I'd throw it up since I took the time to do it. Generally thinking limited QPF, but ~18-20:1 ratios will help out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'll take, flurries better than nothing. MPM left out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This could end up giving Cape Cod 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 FWIW the HRRR and RAP are both pretty far east in their LR, which is interesting given that they are usually NW and amped at the end of their runs. They've definitely had a spotty record at best this winter so I wouldn't take them too seriously, but worth mentioning I think. The RAP has been pretty good lately. It's definitely east and ticked east last run. That said it's missing the returns extending north into the VA Capes pretty badly. It's not really doing much there yet, but still....it seems to be not grasping that north extension yet. Trend to watch though as I'd like to see the radar build a bit more than it has so far down that way. There's clearly a boundary just off the beach that could rob some moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like new NAM juiced up a bit near and east of 95. A bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like new NAM juiced up a bit near and east of 95. A bit further west. Yeah was just gonna post that. Reversed the east tick it had at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Follows the trend on the srefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I have had a few over the years but its much more favorable for the areas to my east then here typically, And your right on where they end up, Typically not where modeled I think that last Thursday morning's 4" fluff was the first time I've gotten much from that phenomenon. We did see 2" in Gardiner from the N edge of a Norlun that dumped 11" at PWM and 24" at Goose Rocks Beach in K'port. If I get an inch from this one I'll be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think that last Thursday morning's 4" fluff was the first time I've gotten much from that phenomenon. We did see 2" in Gardiner from the N edge of a Norlun that dumped 11" at PWM and 24" at Goose Rocks Beach in K'port. If I get an inch from this one I'll be pleasantly surprised. Not expecting much as the 18z Nam is a tic east here from 12z up this way, Maybe an inch or two tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Putting the over under on 3.5 here. I think the BOX map is pretty spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah was just gonna post that. Reversed the east tick it had at 12z. thursday inching North too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 thursday inching North too Eh, that's one's dead outside the Cape and maybe S RI...talking meaningful snows. There's mid-level moisture pretty far NW so we could see some flurries or brief light snow inland, but nothing that needs headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Radar returns are getting deeper over the VA Capes, and are moving NNEward up the coastline now. I think the heaviest band of precip hits CHH and ACK and HYA, as far west as Falmouth, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The precipitation over the VA Capes is further west and moving more northward than NEward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 New BOX map looks reasonable to me. The 2-3 area denotes the sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.