SouthCoastMA Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Heck, why not 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Because I clearly mentioned how we can get 12-15" and I am being mocked for showing the evidence that could get us to that number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 24"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 24"?You're not factoring in ratios though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Haha that's very funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 No, that moisture over the VA Cape is what hits us tonight into tomorrow morning. It is just much further west than modeled initially and moving Northward.look at pwats james. There is no extension north of higher pwats north of that developing low down there. Plus we are still in very dry air to start. That moisture has nothing to due with the inv trough late late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 look at pwats james. There is no extension north of higher pwats north of that developing low down there. Plus we are still in very dry air to start. That moisture has nothing to due with the inv trough late late tonight. Max did I win the temp contest? You haven't updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nice squall like snow here atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 No, that moisture over the VA Cape is what hits us tonight into tomorrow morning. It is just much further west than modeled initially and moving Northward. I guess my point is that it's not like we have a surface low with a defined CCB currently over VA that will translate north to hit us.... in fact, the stronger that main low is, we may be robbed of moisture in our litte mesolow that develops and only 6+ hours laters becomes the dominant low. I could be wrong, but it's a complex setup and just want to be careful over-interpreting the further west precipitation over VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 look at pwats james. There is no extension north of higher pwats north of that developing low down there. Plus we are still in very dry air to start. That moisture has nothing to due with the inv trough late late tonight. I really want to see the ocean off Atlantic city light up soon and start streaming north. Next few hours tell the story, maybe the short term mesos are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Short term mesos suck. Tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Max did I win the temp contest? You haven't updated.Yea I just dont know how to post spreadsheets from excel on here. Also just ask in the actual thread. If a mod can move these posts please. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 No model gave me snow right now so I'm fully expecting this to bomb and stall just south of LI giving shelton and only shelton, ct.... 1-2ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I really want to see the ocean off Atlantic city light up soon and start streaming north. Next few hours tell the story, maybe the short term mesos are rightI did a lot of research on moisture plumes mainly from TCs that are forced poleward from certain synoptic setups. Basically PREs. And this setup doesnt have any force from the trough to pull the moisture from this pseudo sub trop low poleward. The trough goes negative way too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Short term mesos suck. Tossed. by that you mean rap/HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Radar still looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I don't find the HRRR very useful at all really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 I don't know, I just don't see this looking like the wetter 18z models. It looks like it's slow to develop and oriented more Sw to ne than up off acy. Very narrow band that although it's gaining some north isn't exactly filling the radar. Will take a veritable explosion of returns to make this much of a deal IMBY and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I don't find the HRRR very useful at all really It blows. It's meant for tstms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It blows. It's meant for tstms.Just like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It blows. It's meant for tstms. I have looked at it numerous times on events as some get wood looking at them on here and take it as gospel but i find from run to run its horrible and never pans out as far as snow accumulations go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z NAM brings about .555" of QPF to CHH. All snow and about -20 microbars/second are within the Dendrite Snow Growth Zone, so about 20-1 ratios should yield 10" of snow from CHH to HYA and given that the models are all likely too far east with the heaviest snow bands, a crack at 12-15" is possible. James, I really love the enthusiasm...but you are only hurting your own credibility when you throw our statements like this. You are basing snowfall ratios on temperatures as they stand RIGHT NOW while basing QPF on the 18z 6-10 hours out. Why are you purposely choosing to accept the QPF for the 18z NAM as truth, yet not acknowledging the fact that it has temperatures above 30 degrees? The further "west" the precip moves, the higher temps will be on the Cape, and you'll be lucky to get ratios in excess of 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I have looked at it numerous times on events as some get wood looking at them on here and take it as gospel but i find from run to run its horrible and never pans out as far as snow accumulations go. Hi res bull ****. I don't care if it's right or wrong, they still suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 . Hi res bull ****. I don't care if it's right or wrong, they still suck. Lol, tell us how you really feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Light snow here about a dusting. From I84 to 34 to 15 steady snow and roads getting covered in most places. Didn't see an obs thread for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 While I believe the NAM on QPF, I also look at the GFS which is close to the NAM in regards to QPF. So they are similar which lends credence to the NAM. Plus I look at the precip near DE I see it further west, which translates towards the main mega bands hitting CHH and HYA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Lol, tell us how you really feel. Just haven't been a fan. Maybe it nails it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just haven't been a fan. Maybe it nails it tonight. I've have found good use for the hrrr has long as it strings several very consistent runs together. While the latest run is still probably too far east, I may have to cut pops back in places like PSM. May end up bring dry there overnight. Essex county mass advisory not looking too good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just flicked on the flood light. Big fluffy flakes floating down OES? Nothing shows on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I've have found good use for the hrrr has long as it strings several very consistent runs together. While the latest run is still probably too far east, I may have to cut pops back in places like PSM. May end up bring dry there overnight. Essex county mass advisory not looking too good right now. If this stays canal east I'll give it props. It completely sucked a big one this weekend only to give up on the cold solutions last minute. It was to the point where BOX bought it hook line and sinker only to eat their words. Personally I'm not forecasting so I only causally care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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