Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It blows. It's meant for tstms.did excellent with the change back to snow Sunday morning down here and south coast about 7 hrs lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 I find the HRRR useless. The RAP has done okay. Radar filling in nicely now....long as that continues to build over the next 90 minutes it's GTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 got the same here Just flicked on the flood light. Big fluffy flakes floating down OES?Nothing shows on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If this stays canal east I'll give it props. It completely sucked a big one this weekend only to give up on the cold solutions last minute. It was to the point where BOX bought it hook line and sinker only to eat their words. Personally I'm not forecasting so I only causally care. A lot of models have been struggling the last 6 weeks or so. The RGEM is really the only one that I can give major props to at this point. But as far as POPS in the enhanced short term forecast goes (within 12 hours) I have found a blend of the last 3 runs of the HRRR, on average, are pretty much unbeatable. The HRRR has a problem with sfc temps...especially with snow cover and have to be taken with a grain of salt sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Been snowing here for the last 20 minutes...got a fresh heavy dusting already. That wasn't supposed to happen here. Cars and roads are white, and still going. Nice lil surprise for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just flicked on the flood light. Big fluffy flakes floating down OES? Nothing shows on radar Same here, coated up, wasn't expecting a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 A lot of models have been struggling the last 6 weeks or so. The RGEM is really the only one that I can give major props to at this point. But as far as POPS in the enhanced short term forecast goes (within 12 hours) I have found a blend of the last 3 runs of the HRRR, on average, are pretty much unbeatable. The HRRR has a problem with sfc temps...especially with snow cover and have to be taken with a grain of salt sometimes. Well that would be a pretty big bust if it beats every other model this close in. I understand the the reasons for a positive bust like snow growth etc, but I'm still staying conservative in my area because of any shift east. That's said, HRRR is pretty much only FMH east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Well obviously it's a widespread precip shield in CT...From the Northwest to the Central and the Northeast. I wasn't expecting a flake either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Well that would be a pretty big bust if it beats every other model this close in. I understand the the reasons for a positive bust like snow growth etc, but I'm still staying conservative in my area because of any shift east. That's said, HRRR is pretty much only FMH east. The latest HRRR I have has the 0.01 qpf line from like newport RI to PYM. It'll be interesting to see how the 00z nam trends. The 21z SREF took a pretty big hop east with it's 1" snow probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The dendrites are magnificent tonight out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The dendrites are magnificent tonight out there. Under the beam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Low level moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Under the beam?Sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 The latest HRRR I have has the 0.01 qpf line from like newport RI to PYM. It'll be interesting to see how the 00z nam trends. The 21z SREF took a pretty big hop east with it's 1" snow probs. If the SREF's went that far east we're definitely going to get hit pretty hard tonight. HRRR at least over MBY hasn't gotten one right this winter. RAP has been better and seems to be adjusting positively at 0z. Radar blossoming nicely now, we will see how it plays out. 1/3 or 2/4 still seems okay here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sarcasm? If big fluffy flakes record -5 to 5 dbz on the okx radar sure LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Anyone answer? Is this OES over CT or just moisture up over the cold dome like we mentioned earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Well whatever it is, it wasn't forecasted. And nobody seems to know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Anyone answer? Is this OES over CT or just moisture up over the cold dome like we mentioned earlier?isn't that the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 isn't that the same thingHow often does CT get OES? I mean this isn't Your normal 12+ OES that Westerly gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 They are pretty good now Sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The dendrites are magnificent tonight out there. Yea...they look like Dendrites avatar, perfect little snowflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ocean Effect way inland over here? Never really thought OES gets into my area?? But? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 How often does CT get OES? I mean this isn't Your normal 12+ OES that Westerly getswhen low level winds go south over an Arctic dome, happened last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 They are pretty good nowIs it actually snowing in CT now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nice steady light snow. Everything coated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow just looked at HRRRs vs. KOKX radar... can't even initialize right let alone get the next 2-3 hours correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Light snow has started again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yes And here west of springfield Is it actually snowing in CT now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yes, has been for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Light snow, and 11F under cloudy moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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