Superstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I always like to be on north side of precip shield with confluence. Colder temperature and better lift mechanics produce good snowfall ratios. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UK backed off numbers a little from last night - would be solid still verbatim. Probably 2-4" here, 4-7" LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I shoveled driveway clear right after the squall moved through last night and I am glad I did it then... was still warm then compared to today.... this wind has one heck of a bite to it but the sun is nice and warm... I am watching snow melt in my yard with the temp only 10 degrees which to me is pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We might see another 25 - 40 mile bump north over the next two model runs, but this is a turnpike and points south event. No real blocking to slow this down and get the storm cranking. I guess it depends what you would consider an event, I can see this being at least an advisory event south of I-80 with a light snowfall north of that. Wouldn't take that much of a bump north to run a solid two or three tenths of QPF (in the form of higher ratio snowfall) across the central third of the state. I mean most of the guidance not named the NAM and GFS have already been suggesting this the last few runs. Obviously the turnpike corridor and south stands to potentially see a heavier event (possibly winter storm warning worthy) but I wouldn't count the rest of the area out of it. The top end potential of this storm is probably limited with lack of a strong high up north to offer up a strong easterly flow and progressive pattern will keep it moving. Regardless, it'll still deliver a sizable event for whoever's in the crosshairs of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Unrelated...is there anything about the potential at the end of the week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Good trends so far at 12z. Lots of room for a slight north trend like we've seen all year. Over the years in this type of set up, we tend to do better here when the precip shield is moving north east from Tennessee and Kentucky into WV and then in to PA. I like where we stand right now, and I think we have a chance at a 6 in. storm in the LSV. I agree an like where we currently sit! I just got back from plowing/ shoveling at work. Some spots there was nothing, then 6" spots from drifting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We might see another 25 - 40 mile bump north over the next two model runs, but this is a turnpike and points south event. No real blocking to slow this down and get the storm cranking. You're usually a little too negative for my liking, but I have to agree with you on this one. I just don't see this coming as far north as some are thinking. (hoping) Even where I'm at I'm not at all confident of getting much at this point. I also haven't given up for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 First call from Horst, 2" at the turnpike to 5" on the M/D line. 2"-3" in Lancaster City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 First call from Horst, 2" at the turnpike to 5" on the M/D line. 2"-3" in Lancaster City.Yup not a bad call I'd say. I'm going with 3-6" my self from Rt. 30 south to the line. Euro just came in with another very nice hit. 6" to LNS and THV factoring in ratios. Not bad. Incredibly cold thought the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's not totally miserable out there when the wind lightens up. A testament to the mid Feb sun angle I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yup not a bad call I'd say. I'm going with 3-6" my self from Rt. 30 south to the line. Euro just came in with another very nice hit. 6" to LNS and THV factoring in ratios. Not bad. Incredibly cold thought the entire event.Seems like a good first call. I think mby is good for 6. Hoping for another north jog or more expansion of the qpf field as we approach game time. 6 with an upside of 8 if trends continue is not a bad place to be considering how snow starved we have been down here this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The GFS is not really terrible as far as indicated amounts at this point, and I like where we sit as well, as long as slight northward adjustments continue. Personally, if I can muster a 6 inch event out of this, I'd be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm just going to take 2-4 and run...this was looking like a 0 for us yesterday so yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Seems like a good first call. I think mby is good for 6. Hoping for another north jog or more expansion of the qpf field as we approach game time. 6 with an upside of 8 if trends continue is not a bad place to be considering how snow starved we have been down here this year. Since you live on a ridge basically and are able to squeeze every bit of liquid available to you in these events, I think I'm going to have to agree with you. The one thing that makes me hesitate to go higher for the LSV is actually where the best lift will occur during the height of this system. Remember, where there is lift, there is subsistence away from the area. If there is a good deal of lift shown models down in the CMD area, there will probably be a screw zone around the area getting pounded. It's just how it works. However, this system is going to be very cold in general, so the starting ratios for the event should be 12-13:1 just because of how cold the column will be and it's not so cold where the flakes are more of the needle variety. Any area of good omega around 800-600mb with column temps around -12 to -15 will make the flakes fluffier and more of the dendrite variety, and that's when you can maximize your snow ratios. Once the soundings come out a little later for the Euro, I want to take a look and see what is going on throughout the column. GFS and NAM look okay for the region, but not the best it could be. That area is located a little further south into MD. Still, good enough for an easy 3-6". I'll take that and anything higher is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 "F.Y.I folks...soundings look beautiful. As in...a DEEP moist layer of -10 to -15C, with lift maximizing around -12C to -15C isotherm. That's ideal for dendritic growth, which would explain why I'm seeing quite a bit of SLR's in the 15-20 to 1 range (though realistically, 15-17 to 1 is probably as good as it gets around here). .50 inch QPF with a 16-1 SLR = 8". Care should be taken when viewing some of those implicit ECMWF maps -- I believe they use a 10-1 SLR exclusively. " Quote from a Met over on the MA forum. I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We actually made it up to 12 here in Millersville. So much for the record. Wow Still got the daily record shattered at least. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Winds trying to calm a bit, but that drive on 81 late this morning was interesting with the wind blowing across the open areas south of 114. It's 11 and roads are melted clear to just water. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Unrelated...is there anything about the potential at the end of the week? The 12 z Euro has the storm for next weekend. It looks really juiced and verbatim it is probably not all snow. QPF looks to be over 1 to 1.5 in. According to Weatherbell map, but snow amounts look to be 6 to 8 inches. For example, it gives MDT a Total of 10 inches total of snow between the early week and next weekend events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Boston is 12" from setting a seasonal snowfall record. IIRC they had like 4" total up to MLK day.m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Was outside for like 20 min gotta say not too bad, mid Feb. sun angle ftw!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 $20 says CTP goes watch for Mason-Dixon counties tonight if the 18z/00z suite nudges north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I like the trends today. I still think we are in for some solid banding etc. South of route 30 could be in for a 6 to 10 inch event. I expect 6 but would not be surprised to see things trend wetter down here as we get closer to game time. Very cold storm, fantastic snow growth, banding potential, and trends have me jumping for joy from a pure weenie perspective. This year has been a snow desert so a decent event would be that much sweeter in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z Euro and UKMET gives the LSV .3 to .4 QPF. If we can manage a 15 to 1 average ratio, that would give us 4 to 6 inches of snow. At this point, I'll take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z Euro and UKMET gives the LSV .3 to .4 QPF. If we can manage a 15 to 1 average ratio, that would give us 4 to 6 inches of snow. At this point, I'll take it and run. There will be WSW up tomorrow morning.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM didn't chug north. Looks like a VA type storm. Those darn sharp cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Still not bad. Much rather have to deal with fighting a cold high pressure, verses hoping for a storm to come South. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yes. At least it won't be a cold rain. I'd rather it be cold and be snowing very, very lightly in February than it be cold and raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Still not bad. Much rather have to deal with fighting a cold high pressure, verses hoping for a storm to come South. Sent from my iPhone agreed. Was just hoping for more of a north component to the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM didn't chug north. Looks like a VA type storm. Those darn sharp cutoffs. ♫ ...one way...or another...I'm gonna screw ya...I'm gonna shaft ya, shaft ya, shaft ya, shaft ya...one way...maybe next storm... ♫ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For the southeast portion of the sub-forum, it looks like the main forcing for ascent will be associated with the left exit region of the 200 mb jet streak. Enhanced values of 600 mb frontogenesis near and to the northwest of this region will provide lift in the dendritic growth zone which, as others have mentioned, will lead to pretty good aggregate production and higher-than-average SWE ratios. Farther northwest near UNV still looks like a light snow event, though there should be some periods of excellent snow growth. We will likely have some weaker forcing up near 500 mb and perhaps some lower-level convergence around 800 mb associated with the weakening inverted trough. Efficient dendritic growth will be favored given temperatures (based on the 12z GFS) between -12 and -18C from the surface to 600 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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