I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam is out of range but it did move north ever so slightly. About a 25 mile jog. Any north jog on any model however slight is a great sign in my book at this range. We are not far from a huge hit so every little jog helps exponentially at this point in the game. The trend is our friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 As of right now I'm going to go with 2-4" for the northern half of the forum and 4-7" south. Just in time for the arctic air to reinforce itself Thursday-Friday, either way. Might check up to the river on Monday or Tuesday...it was already significantly iced over when I looked a few days back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hi Res NAM not bad: very quick event. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039ℑ=data%2Fnam-hires%2F18%2Fnam-hires_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+18+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 As of right now I'm going to go with 2-4" for the northern half of the forum and 4-7" south. Just in time for the arctic air to reinforce itself Thursday-Friday, either way. Might check up to the river on Monday or Tuesday...it was already significantly iced over when I looked a few days back. I can see the river from work, last week it was about 90% covered at the courthouse in WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This afternoon's WPC probs for reference: 4+ 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I can see the river from work, last week it was about 90% covered at the courthouse in WB. The Susquehanna has good ice coverage all the way down to Harrisburg (I-83 crossing) and even decent to good coverage as far south as the US-30 crossing in Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I always enjoy when SC/southern VA/northern GA/Nashvile get big snows. Go them, whatever we get - cool - but they deserve a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The Susquehanna has good ice coverage all the way down to Harrisburg (I-83 crossing) and even decent to good coverage as far south as the US-30 crossing in Columbia.The Susky down Her has been iced over since before Christmas, second straight year of multi-month ice cover. Some dudes actually walked across her two weeks ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For the southeast portion of the sub-forum, it looks like the main forcing for ascent will be associated with the left exit region of the 200 mb jet streak. Enhanced values of 600 mb frontogenesis near and to the northwest of this region will provide lift in the dendritic growth zone which, as others have mentioned, will lead to pretty good aggregate production and higher-than-average SWE ratios. Farther northwest near UNV still looks like a light snow event, though there should be some periods of excellent snow growth. We will likely have some weaker forcing up near 500 mb and perhaps some lower-level convergence around 800 mb associated with the weakening inverted trough. Efficient dendritic growth will be favored given temperatures (based on the 12z GFS) between -12 and -18C from the surface to 600 mb. Just catching up after doing some school work. Very well said heavy. Thanks as always. I like where I sit here in the LSV. The only place I'd want to trade spots with on this subforum might be 83Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The Susky down Her has been iced over since before Christmas, second straight year of multi-month ice cover. Some dudes actually walked across her two weeks ago! Very tough to freeze past colimbia Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS still drops 3" up to Allentown and has close to 6" down near the PA line. Of course, that's verbatim from the model, so take it with a grain of salt. Throw in mesoscale characteristics and it looks like someone near the PA line will jackpot with 6-8" most likely and areas all the way up to the I80 corridor will have a shot at 3-4" and wouldn't surprise me to hear someone walk with 5" up there. I've been in this state now for 3 years. I'm starting to notice a pattern for these setups and who gets what. You learn a lot from collecting snow data for PennDot for hours at a time. Oy ve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Very tough to freeze past colimbiaSent from my iPhone Tjat surprises me; it isn't much distance as the crow flies. Does the dam cause it to not freeze up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 IT'S TOO DAMN COLD!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Some snow drift action over at my grandparents before the sun set. Already down to around 3ºF and wind is settling down pretty decently.. gonna be a cold one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 5 on the outdoor them.3.8 on the station across the street. winds @11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We are snow cover free down here except for some small shades patches. A cold dry 5 degrees out. Hopefully we cash in with the upcoming storm down here to transform the landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 KAVP: Monday record: -5 7pm temp: +2 7 degrees to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Anyone know the MDT record low for Monday? We'd/Thir looks just as cold, if not colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Anyone know the MDT record low for Monday? We'd/Thir looks just as cold, if not colder. Here you go per the CTP disco, as well as the other major stations. Most of those are probably getting busted tonight. Altoona is probably going to be past the -2ºF record well before midnight even gets here. .CLIMATE...SOME RECORD LOWS FOR MONDAY MORNING AROUND THE REGION. RECORD LOW/YEAR HARRISBURG.............0/1905 WILLIAMSPORT........ -5/1905 STATE COLLEGE.........-8/1904 YORK....................... -7/1963 ALTOONA...................-2/2004 BRADFORD...............-23/1943 CLEARFIELD...............-6/1930 JOHNSTOWN.............-10/1943 LANCASTER...............+2/1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll be pissed of md can't break the 110 year record with this airmass, ha. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Those records are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Those records are screwed. Yea haha, I think the only ones that might be safe are York and Bradford's... York's is pretty low and I think they'll come up short because of the lack of a deep snowpack there. However, if it gets calm and decouples up in Bradford overnight that one could easily get busted too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Holy God! Scheisskopf & Scheisskopf aren't calling for a foot plus?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I like our call for now. Here's Dr. John Scala's map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I like Dr. Scala's better. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I like our call for now. Here's Dr. John Scala's map: I'm thinking along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I am amazed how quick the temps have dropped here. I just hit 0 and the school across the street is -1 with gusts up to 34mph and 12 sustained. brutal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 KAVP: Monday record: -5 9pm temp: -1 4 degrees to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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