pawatch Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm beginning to focus in on the squall line for midweek. It'll be tough to top the other one, but still looks pretty good.That going to be a repeat of Saturday?My kind of weatherman...Hillbilly weatherman from NH. - warning profanity in his weather report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not thinking it will be as bad as Saturday, but even if it's a solid squall line if it hits in mid aftn, the traffic snarls would be way worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hm CTP going 3-4 for the Dauphin/Cumberland/York triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think the concerns about dry air *may* be unfounded. I've been watching the surfaces obs, mPING reports and snow reports and it seems as though once the dewpoint get to +2, the snow starts. There is only seems to be a 40 min lag from the time the returns get overhead to when snow reaches the ground. We aren't talking about a 35 degree dewpoint depression here, it's not terrible. Still, for us on the edge, even losing 0.1" - 0.12" liquid is big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 EURO is about 3-5 for southern PA: http://www.eurowx.com/maps.php?map=24snow&hr=132&zoom=us&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think the concerns about dry air *may* be unfounded. I've been watching the surfaces obs, mPING reports and snow reports and it seems as though once the dewpoint get to +2, the snow starts. There is only seems to be a 40 min lag from the time the returns get overhead to when snow reaches the ground. We aren't talking about a 35 degree dewpoint depression here, it's not terrible. Still, for us on the edge, even losing 0.1" - 0.12" liquid is big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think the concerns about dry air *may* be unfounded. I've been watching the surfaces obs, mPING reports and snow reports and it seems as though once the dewpoint get to +2, the snow starts. There is only seems to be a 40 min lag from the time the returns get overhead to when snow reaches the ground. We aren't talking about a 35 degree dewpoint depression here, it's not terrible. Still, for us on the edge, even losing 0.1" - 0.12" liquid is big. Also keep in mind when air temperatures are this cold, it requires less water in absolute terms to saturate the column... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 CTP continues the advisories and snow amounts. Nice consistency on their part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 CTP continues the advisories and snow amounts. Nice consistency on their part. Following the MA obs it looks like the snow is making decent progress, and that the dry air worries (as you said) are a bit overdone. They even bumped the 2-3" zone a bit north with their latest update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Following the MA obs it looks like the snow is making decent progress, and that the dry air worries (as you said) are a bit overdone. They even bumped the 2-3" zone a bit north with their latest update. Yea, now don't get me wrong there is weak cold air advection in place over PA, which means the dry air will be continuously intruding into the column, but the reports are very promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I can see the mid level clouds now streaming in from my southwest and the cirrus shield has completely blocked out the sun. 12 / -4 in New Salem...ran a medical assist call a short time ago and even in my bunker bear it was cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Off of work today and my pipes froze after a low of -3. All last winter and brutal cold they did not freeze, but last night jack pipe frost did a number for some reason on my PVC from the well pump. No damage except $200 for a nuclear space heater for the basement. Home Depot only has 3 left so I am not the only broke fool! Anyway all of this cold and lack of snow really stinks. If my propane bill will bankrupt me I might as well have some snow to show for it. I am in full weenie mode and insist on 6 inches from this storm or bust. Stuck the ruler out, marked the 6 inch line with ribbon and insist on burying the top of the ribbon! No less than 6 will do as this weenie is sick of a frigid relatively snowless landscape! BRING IT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Some MPING reports creeping into southern Westmoreland County, PA. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Off of work today and my pipes froze after a low of -3. All last winter and brutal cold they did not freeze, but last night jack pipe frost did a number for some reason on my PVC from the well pump. No damage except $200 for a nuclear space heater for the basement. Home Depot only has 3 left so I am not the only broke fool! Anyway all of this cold and lack of snow really stinks. If my propane bill will bankrupt me I might as well have some snow to show for it. I am in full weenie mode and insist on 6 inches from this storm or bust. Stuck the ruler out, marked the 6 inch line with ribbon and insist on burying the top of the ribbon! No less than 6 will do as this weenie is sick of a frigid relatively snowless landscape! BRING IT! Snow insulated the pipes last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I went through the 12z guidance (NAM, GFS, UKMET, EURO, etc.) with the exception of the HRRR which, in my opinion, is too dry and slow, everything looks on track. I do not see a last minute surprise north trend though, mainly due to the speed of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I have a friend who lives down in Greensburg Kentucky he has 10" of snow on the ground. Said he doesn't even own a snow shovel. I-83 hope you bury the ribbon! Joe thank you for the updates! You have any idea what rates were looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wanted to put a snowmap out but having an issue with the part of my software that generates the map that I still haven't been able to resolve. How familiar with ArcGIS are you Eskimo Joe? I've been having a script error pop up every time I run certain spatial analyst tools, including the interpolation one I use for the map. Any rate, I think CTP's advisory placement and map looks pretty good. I thought we were pretty well set to get a solid advisory event for most under I-80 but models since yesterday had backed off slightly and widespread 3+ will likely stay relegated to the 22 corridor and below as Joe had been thinking. Can't help but notice how the HRRR and RAP has been advertising a decided weakness in precip east of the mountains in northern MD and the Sus Valley that was really hurting the DC areas accums until the latest 18z run was a bit better. Since this storm is progressing more than getting to amplify and turn the bend, have to wonder if they end up somewhat correct as the precip weakens on the other side of the mountains (esp past WV's mountains) and there's a weak spot in totals between that and further south and then east as the precip shield strengthens with the low hitting the coast. Do think that like the storm that blitzed Chicago a few weeks ago, this things going to peak in the Ohio Valley/Midwest...except this thing's further south obviously and the whole state of Kentucky is the one getting blitzed. Expect that widespread 8-10+ ends up there and up to the Apps.. with more of a 5-8 max on east. We'll have to keep an eye on radar trends as this thing progresses into our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wanted to put a snowmap out but having an issue with the part of my software that generates the map that I still haven't been able to resolve. How familiar with ArcGIS are you Eskimo Joe? I've been having a script error pop up every time I run certain spatial analyst tools, including the interpolation one I use for the map. Any rate, I think CTP's advisory placement and map looks pretty good. I thought we were pretty well set to get a solid advisory event for most under I-80 but models since yesterday had backed off slightly and widespread 3+ will likely stay relegated to the 22 corridor and below as Joe had been thinking. Can't help but notice how the HRRR and RAP has been advertising a decided weakness in precip east of the mountains in northern MD and the Sus Valley that was really hurting the DC areas accums until the latest 18z run was a bit better. Since this storm is progressing more than getting to amplify and turn the bend, have to wonder if they end up somewhat correct as the precip weakens on the other side of the mountains (esp past WV's mountains) and there's a weak spot in totals between that and further south and then east as the precip shield strengthens with the low hitting the coast. Do think that like the storm that blitzed Chicago a few weeks ago, this things going to peak in the Ohio Valley/Midwest...except this thing's further south obviously and the whole state of Kentucky is the one getting blitzed. Expect that widespread 8-10+ ends up there and up to the Apps.. with more of a 5-8 max on east. We'll have to keep an eye on radar trends as this thing progresses into our region. I work with it every day. Post a screen cap of the error and tell me what version you are using. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I work with it every day. Post a screen cap of the error and tell me what version you are using. Thanks. Running 10.2.2, I started having this problem sometime after I had a bit of a adware/malware issue and downloaded some stuff to get rid of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That band just south of Indianapolis is persistent. And all the models keep underdoing it. Wonder if that'll make any difference up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 LWX bumped amounts for bordering counties CTP has a forecast low of -5 to -10 thurs night for Adams County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Running 10.2.2, I started having this problem sometime after I had a bit of a adware/malware issue and downloaded some stuff to get rid of it. Error_Window.png Oh jeeze, that one. It's a known bug in Arcgis 10.x Only two things that worked for me were : 1.) Uninstall Avast and install AVG anti-virus (if you have Avast) 2.) Reinstall ArcGIS 10.x and Right click -> Run As Administrator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Late to the party, but I just got home from work. The low here in Tamaqua was -5 this morning. Not the coldest ever here, but it is the coldest since I bought my weather station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It might be going as planned but the way this is going I wonder if snow will get up to the PA/MD border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It might be going as planned but the way this is going I wonder if snow will get up to the PA/MD border? Snow is now being reported in the Laurels, cloud deck down to 8,000 feet in SW Adams County. Don't hold your hopes too high for big snow north of the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This should be at 5:00pm edit:12:00pm http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snow is now being reported in the Laurels, cloud deck down to 8,000 feet in SW Adams County. Don't hold your hopes too high for big snow north of the turnpike. Thanks, yep - I am not - I am very close to the turnpike. Hoping for 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 PAWatch, is that image a simulated radar from something? It definitely is not matching current conditions in Baltimore / DC Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah it's snowing in DC now. I expect about 1.5" here in midtown hbg. I'm 10 or so miles east of the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Couple of things: 1.) I use WGAL live radar during storms like this, it's much better placed than CCX. Link: http://www.wgal.com/weather/live-radar 2.) Camp David (KRSP) in NW Frederick County, MD is now reporting a steady SN- wit 1.75 SM visibility. 3.) When you see the snow start, report it using your mPING app if you can. It helps with the ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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