Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I don't think accumulating snow will make it north of the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looking at the radar movement, I'm wondering if the northern edge doesn't make it north of US-22/I-78. I don't think accumulating snow will make it north of the turnpike. Like I said earlier. It just looks to me like the northern edge doesn't get past US-22 and then I-78 in the eastern part of the state. If we see anything up this far north, it could just be flurries to a dusting. Hopefully I'm wrong, but even that band (now in Ohio) that was discussed earlier, if it holds together looks like it stays south along I-70 and then perhaps the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Like I said earlier. It just looks to me like the northern edge doesn't get past US-22 and then I-78 in the eastern part of the state. If we see anything up this far north, it could just be flurries to a dusting. Hopefully I'm wrong, but even that band (now in Ohio) that was discussed earlier, if it holds together looks like it stays south along I-70 and then perhaps the turnpike. Most models showed the precip building northward throughout the state between now and 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Dusting of pixie dust. Steady snow now falling since around 7:50 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Most models showed the precip building northward throughout the state between now and 1am. At this point it time, radar trends are as much, if not more, important than what the models were showing. In other words, the old cliche of "it's nowcast time". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Snow still falling, picked up a coating so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 At this point it time, radar trends are as much, if not more, important than what the models were showing. In other words, the old cliche of "it's nowcast time". And my point is, things are going as planned if not better. The band in western PA is expanding northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I don't think accumulating snow will make it north of the turnpike. I dunno about that, it seems the best band is starting to set up and build at and NORTH of the turnpike (or I-70 in western PA since 76 curves above Pitt) to about US 22 or so in the western half of PA. Also some semblance of smaller banded stuff lifting up into far SW PA. Getting some better looking flakes falling with the somewhat heavier stuff trying to move in, looks like some dendrites in there. I'd watch for a swath within that band that ends up with a fluff bomb.. wouldn't take much mesoscale enhancement to double up the general 2-3 forecast given near ideal snow growth potential in the temp department in the lower troposphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I dunno about that, it seems the best band is starting to set up and build at and NORTH of the turnpike (or I-70 in western PA since 76 curves above Pitt) to about US 22 or so in the western half of PA. Also some semblance of smaller banded stuff lifting up into far SW PA. Getting some better looking flakes falling with the somewhat heavier stuff trying to move in, looks like some dendrites in there. I'd watch for a swath within that band that ends up with a fluff bomb.. wouldn't take much mesoscale enhancement to double up the general 2-3 forecast given near ideal snow growth potential in the temp department in the lower troposphere. 2015-02-16_2030.png This was posted in Philly section... Very noticable that precip is expanding northward. Definitely north of the turnpike... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Major Virga here nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 And my point is, things are going as planned if not better. The band in western PA is expanding northward. This was posted in Philly section... Very noticable that precip is expanding northward. Definitely north of the turnpike... I'll believe it when I see it, but if you and some others are right and I'm wrong, I'll gladly partake of more crow since I already ate some Saturday night with the snow squall I thought was falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The Debbie Downer in me is watching that dry slot with dread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Light snow just beginning here. Loving the radar which shows me going from 10dbz to 20dbz returns within the next 15 minutes. So I'm expecting a pretty quick ramp up here shorly. At the moment the western pa echoes all seem to be heading eastward at just about my latitude. I don't know if this is unrealistic or not but I'm really hoping to pull off 4" with this one. I've had way too many 2" events this winter. Current Ob: 12.7 / +1.3. I really do love cold snow events. This will be the coldest one of the winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Light snow commenced here just before 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'll believe it when I see it, but if you and some others are right and I'm wrong, I'll gladly partake of more crow since I already ate some Saturday night with the snow squall I thought was falling apart. We'll see how it plays out. I'm not wishcasting a few inches or anything, but I think it's just a bit too early to make statements about where the northern edge will set up until closer to midnight - 1am... Still critical that the precip continues to strengthen and expand further north from now until then and hopefully not be virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like slightly better returns associated (maybe?) with that band Mallow mentioned are pushing into western PA. Ya, it looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 steady light snow here and 13 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 nice steady snow falling here right now. Everything is covered and the roads are a little touchy, especially stopping quick and turns. Joe Murgo at wtaj called 3-5" for our area and 5-9" for Laurel Highlands and down into Beford and Somerset counties. Hes very conservative with his calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 my forecast is no snow for us. tomorrow it will be sunny and 80. just not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'm kinda looking forward to severe season, miss tracking day 2 MOD and Day 1 High Risks. Fun stuff, even if vicariously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I imagine if I strained my eyes at the streetlight for long enough I'd see some pixie dust falling by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 nice steady snow falling here right now. Everything is covered and the roads are a little touchy, especially stopping quick and turns. Joe Murgo at wtaj called 3-5" for our area and 5-9" for Laurel Highlands and down into Beford and Somerset counties. Hes very conservative with his calls. Same here, a nice light to moderate rate of large very fluffy flakes. Didn't look like it when I looked, but a measurement yielded about 0.4" so far.. this is the type of stuff that could pile up in a big hurry with heavy rates (potentially 20:1 or greater). That's a really bullish call by him, that 5-9 along the MD border is likely not going to happen... but this band settling in the south central counties could be capable of a swath of 3-5" and the extra enhancement in the Laurels could deliver some 6 or more amounts in the higher areas in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Snowing on radar for MBY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Same here, a nice light to moderate rate of large very fluffy flakes. Didn't look like it when I looked, but a measurement yielded about 0.4" so far.. this is the type of stuff that could pile up in a big hurry with heavy rates (potentially 20:1 or greater). That's a really bullish call by him, that 5-9 along the MD border is likely not going to happen... but this band settling in the south central counties could be capable of a swath of 3-5" and the extra enhancement in the Laurels could deliver some 6 or more amounts in the higher areas in that region. Its really picking up now. Check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Already have a solid coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Already have a solid coating. its accumulating quicker on top of areas already snow covered than those bare... strange to go outside with a nice snowfall and have more than 1/8 mile visibility :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Down to 11.2 / 6.9 now and the fat flakes continue to fall. It's weird because I don't even know if this could be called moderate, but it's accumulating like it's heavy. I probably have almost 1" now, but the board surface is full of peaks and valleys rather than evenly distributed. I've been in 20 dbz's for nearly an hour now with a little more likely coming. Those that said no accumulations north of 22 are wrong! The 25 dbz's are concentrating just north of me up in Perry County and moving into Dauphin. I just wonder if this is going to keep on going all night long. I was just mentioning to my wife that this is the 3rd coldest snow event I've ever seen. The coldest was January 1996 where it started snowing at 8 degrees, and February 2003 where it was 10 degrees. We just don't see snow events with temps in the low teens around these parts very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Steady calm light snow radar looks good for the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Steady light to moderate snow in Marysville with good sized fluffy flakes. Radar looks good with snow back into OH and WV steaming toward the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Starting to pick up here in YNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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