djr5001 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 So far models look like a classic snow to mixed garbage event for the weekend. What the models are doing at 500mb vs surface for Sunday just doesn't seem right to me... anyone else notice something strange or is it just me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Anyone have an update from 12Z Euro? Sounded like 0Z was much more favorable for snow vs the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Anyone have an update from 12Z Euro? Sounded like 0Z was much more favorable for snow vs the GFS. 12z Euro looks a lot like the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z Euro looks a lot like the 12z GFS. and the 12z gfs looks like rain for the weekend. How on the earth do we go from those cold temps to the mid 30's in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 and the 12z gfs looks like rain for the weekend. How on the earth do we go from those cold temps to the mid 30's in a couple hours. There was a storm back in the late '80s where I was at 3 degrees at 6am and 34 and rain before noon. It happens more often and more quickly than people think. I think Eric Horst said once that warm air waits for nothing. (or something like that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 There was a storm back in the late '80s where I was at 3 degrees at 6am and 34 and rain before noon. It happens more often and more quickly than people think. I think Eric Horst said once that warm air waits for nothing. (or something like that) I know, but i don't like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Ground doesn't always respond so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 1996 flood was a bad time up here. 6 people lost their life's. About 100 rescued by helicopter and water rescue boats. Big ice jam let loose on Lycoming Creek and sent a 20 foot wall of water down the creek. The the day after zero temps and everything froze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Sun angle for the loss. 3" of snow this morning, now have bare spots in any sunny area despite a high of 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 January 1996 almost ended in disaster here...remember one of my parents telling me the Susky came within 18" of topping the levee. while I don't remember the details, I thought the crest was around 35-36 feet in WB. we saw a lot of damage from creeks jumping the banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Here is the video of Harrisburg's Walnut Street Bridge being taken out by ice in 1996. It's incredible. I think about that moment just about every time I'm on City Island watching the Sens. I still get a weird feeling walking across from downtown on the remaining east span of the bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 NAM Sim radar for tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 My wife's grandmother passed away 30 or so mins ago. Plz keep my wife and her family in your thoughts all. Tomorrow will be a day of a lot of traveling, Can anyone at all tell me timing of these potential squalls? We'll be driving to/from Harrisburg, Baltimore, Carlisle and Philadelphia all at some point tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 My wife's grandmother passed away 30 or so mins ago. Plz keep my wife and her family in your thoughts all. Tomorrow will be a day of a lot of traveling, Can anyone at all tell me timing of these potential squalls? We'll be driving to/from Harrisburg, Baltimore, Carlisle and Philadelphia all at some point tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Sorry to hear about that, I would think later in the afternoon into the early evening is when the Sus Valley and eastern Penn will deal with snow showers and a potential squall line. Models seem to be timing the potential squall line in that region between 4-7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 That's awful to hear canderson...thoughts go out to you and yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 CTP short term and snow map regarding tomorrow. After it not looking like this would quite reach the levels of Saturday, it's suddenly looking like it might give it a try after all. That'd be nuts to have two thunder snow squalls in 4 days. .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK A BIT MOREINTERESTING THAN JUST ANOTHER RUN OF THE MILL ARCTIC FRONTALPASSAGE. LATEST OPERATIONAL SUITES SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TAKINGON A SLIGHT NEG TILT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH WITH RAPIDLY ERODINGSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT ENTERING THE REGION. ALL THEMODELS HINT THAT SOME SORT OF WAVE WILL WANT TO FORM ALONG THEFRONT AND SLIDE UP THROUGH THE STATE...LOOKING KIND OF ANAFRONT-ISH AND POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL SNOW JUST ASTEMPERATURES START TO TAKE YET ANOTHER PLUNGE LATER IN THEAFTERNOON.VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ATLEAST 6-8C/KM...TOTAL TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND EVEN ASMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. POTENT FORCING ANDIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR MID FEBRUARY WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE ITNOT A BIG SURPRISE IF WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER SNOW AT THEHEIGHT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT SWINGS THROUGH.HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S WILL BE SOME 15-25 DEG BELOWNORMAL...AND WITH A GUSTY WIND DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY...WINDCHILLS WILL BECOME A FACTOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Sorry to hear about that, I would think later in the afternoon into the early evening is when the Sus Valley and eastern Penn will deal with snow showers and a potential squall line. Models seem to be timing the potential squall line in that region between 4-7pm. OK, thanks. My father in law is flying into Baltimore in the late afternoon so this'll be fun times I can already tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Sorry to hear Canderson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 and the 12z gfs looks like rain for the weekend. How on the earth do we go from those cold temps to the mid 30's in a couple hours. And then back to sub zero/single digits early next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 My wife's grandmother passed away 30 or so mins ago. Plz keep my wife and her family in your thoughts all. Tomorrow will be a day of a lot of traveling, Can anyone at all tell me timing of these potential squalls? We'll be driving to/from Harrisburg, Baltimore, Carlisle and Philadelphia all at some point tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Sorry for your loss, if i remember, she hasn't been doing well recently, take comfort she is in a better place. Pass along my condolences to your wife. Safe travels to you tomorrow my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Sorry for your loss canderson thoughts are with you. Anyone have timing on squalls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Sorry for your loss canderson thoughts are with you. Anyone have timing on squalls? Sorry for your loss canderson thoughts are with you. Anyone have timing on squalls? Looks like pm rush hour to start ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Canderson prayers for your family. Sorry for your loss. Voyager I hear you on the temp swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Considering all we had was a coating overnight and the Saturday arctic front underperformed...it would really suck if all we had to show for this period of brutal cold was 1-2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I think we will all be pleasantly surprised tmrw!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Sorry for the loss Canderson. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 My wife's grandmother passed away 30 or so mins ago. Plz keep my wife and her family in your thoughts all. Tomorrow will be a day of a lot of traveling, Can anyone at all tell me timing of these potential squalls? We'll be driving to/from Harrisburg, Baltimore, Carlisle and Philadelphia all at some point tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Sorry for your loss. It appears that conditions will deteriorate in mid-late afternoon (as MAG said I believe). My grandfather passed away several years ago in Pittsburgh during the winter, and we were fortunate to have enough warning to get to the area in time (as bad weather was setting in). I hope you all make it there safely, and rest in peace to her grandmother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Thanks everyone, much appreciated. This subforum really is an extended family in winter. Tomorrow should be interesting travel-wise. Unfortunately the funeral will be 6 or so weeks away due to the Arlington backlog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 My wife's grandmother passed away 30 or so mins ago. Plz keep my wife and her family in your thoughts all. Tomorrow will be a day of a lot of traveling, Can anyone at all tell me timing of these potential squalls? We'll be driving to/from Harrisburg, Baltimore, Carlisle and Philadelphia all at some point tomorrow and tomorrow evening. I am sorry for you loss. Words are insufficient for events like this. I will offer a prayer for your family. we had a death and funeral during a storm a few years ago. my wifes uncle passed and his widow fell and broke her hip in an ice storm the day of the funeral. we had an ice storm during the funeral and driving was a mess. I wish you well in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Tomorrow's squall looks like it's going to be slower-moving than the last one. Could last for 30 minutes to an hour over a given location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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