PennMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Time for a new thread guys. Looks like some high-impact winter weather from tomorrow afternoon through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Going with 2-4" for MBY from the arctic front, then highs in the upper single digits Sunday and a low around -5 Monday morning. WCs as low as -25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hoping for a couple inches here to freshen up the crusty snowpack, but the real story looks to be the wind and cold. It's gonna be miserable out there Sunday regardless, so I'm pulling for us to stay below 0 Sunday. And the sub 0 lows forecast for Saturday night are a convenient excuse not to go out for valentines... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 IF we get 2 to 4 inches of new snow, the blowing snow will be the biggest story. Less than an inch...ehh not so much. Every model pretty much gives us .15 or more so I feel ok about 2 or more. No advisories though for North Central which with the wind and squall factors really surprises me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Is there any chance wind gusts won't be up to the 60 mph the warning we have down here implies? Power outages tomorrow night into Sunday will be devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Is there any chance wind gusts won't be up to the 60 mph the warning we have down here implies? Power outages tomorrow night into Sunday will be devastating. Looking at the latest bufkit wasn't encouraging in regards to the winds being lower. Pretty amazing that all models in the Lancaster/Harrisburg area have winds sustained 28-32 knots almost all day on Sunday with 55 knots lurking up around 925-950 mb. Wind chills will be around -5 - -25 the entire period starting midnight Sunday lasting into parts of Monday. It's going to be very dangerous to head out Sunday, so it's probably best to stay inside if you have to. I really hope there isn't any power outages on Sunday. Those that do would probably want to head somewhere with power and warmth. It'll be too dangerous to stay in a house with no heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Even in the deep cold, signs of spring - full sun and brightness at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Last night the 18z GFS played takeway...today it's bringing next week's storm right on back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GFS says no warmth anytime soon. Even for Allentown, the highest temp for the 16 days of the run is 33 degrees. Now I know it can change, but so far, all the cold has pretty much come as advertised. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kabe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looking at the latest bufkit wasn't encouraging in regards to the winds being lower. Pretty amazing that all models in the Lancaster/Harrisburg area have winds sustained 28-32 knots almost all day on Sunday with 55 knots lurking up around 925-950 mb. Wind chills will be around -5 - -25 the entire period starting midnight Sunday lasting into parts of Monday. It's going to be very dangerous to head out Sunday, so it's probably best to stay inside if you have to. I really hope there isn't any power outages on Sunday. Those that do would probably want to head somewhere with power and warmth. It'll be too dangerous to stay in a house with no heat. Not what I like to hear, but thanks I guess ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Someone nutso is using Enemy Controller on the GFS. Only reasonable explanation! (Top 18z, bottom 12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And just a reminder of where we were at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Going with 2-4" for MBY from the arctic front, then highs in the upper single digits Sunday and a low around -5 Monday morning. WCs as low as -25. From previous thread: "Like the GFS, EURO moved a good bit closer but still a ways away. Come on, don't shaft us this time..." Haha you guys make it sound like this storm was never anywhere near PA when it was inside enough to give Boston a p-type other than snow and our southern tier was flirting with the 850 line just the day before yesterday. Not worried, and not surprised that this is coming back. Just a partial link up of the northern and southern streams should be enough to get us in the game for snowfall. If no interaction (or too late) and southern wave shoots out than yea sure this is going to miss to the south... but it's quite an amplified pattern we will have with a full latitude trough. I will say that it looks quite evident that the Arctic cold is going to be exercising it's muscle with the PV setting up shop near and eventually SE of Hudson Bay. The storm could definitely be squashed or it could end up being a much colder version of the 1/23 storm, which is what I kinda consider this potential event similar to currently. I don't think this is going to come all the way back to any mixing issues anymore in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And reload the arctic express...-40 in the NE corner of the state! Won't happen but a good laugh to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 there is no supporting temps near by. either a typo or a bug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And reload the arctic express...-40 in the NE corner of the state! Won't happen but a good laugh to look at. The record for the state is -42 so you can never say never, but I digress, doubtful it would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is the most well-advertised in advance snow squall line I can ever remember. Coldest temp I've experienced in PA was minus 32 (air temp) on Christmas morning near Dimock. Am thinking that was in the late 70's or early 80's. Can't recall exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is the most well-advertised in advance snow squall line I can ever remember. Coldest temp I've experienced in PA was minus 32 (air temp) on Christmas morning near Dimock. Am thinking that was in the late 70's or early 80's. Can't recall exactly. Probably '83. I was at -3 down here that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 mid 80s I saw an outside thermometer reach -30f . this was at the top of a mountain, near plymouth in Luzerne county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 '83 sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well for tomorrow's snow storm. This is a good sign. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is the most well-advertised in advance snow squall line I can ever remember. Coldest temp I've experienced in PA was minus 32 (air temp) on Christmas morning near Dimock. Am thinking that was in the late 70's or early 80's. Can't recall exactly. January 1985 is what I think of when people talk cold snaps. "Only" -19 here, but it was more pronounced in the south it seems. -8 in Atlanta with below zero lows nearly into Florida is hard to imagine. Wasn't alive for it (thankfully) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If it's snowing 6" in Lancaster, and it's 5 degrees in Philly, what time will schools close in the Poconos? And how much bread should I get? This was a post by a guy taking a jab at the stupid questions that people ask on a Facebook weather page. Classic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 January 1985 is what I think of when people talk cold snaps. "Only" -19 here, but it was more pronounced in the south it seems. -8 in Atlanta with below zero lows nearly into Florida is hard to imagine. Wasn't alive for it (thankfully) 1994 was the benchmark for cold in this area. Reached -22...no other year in my recollection comes close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is the most well-advertised in advance snow squall line I can ever remember. Coldest temp I've experienced in PA was minus 32 (air temp) on Christmas morning near Dimock. Am thinking that was in the late 70's or early 80's. Can't recall exactly. Maybe djr can verify this but I believe it was Christmas day 1980. I was living in north Jersey. The temp that morning was around 3 below zero with incredible sustained winds. When they gusted up into the 30's the wind chill on my weather station (Heathkit 4001) read -56 degrees! Of course, that was using the original wind chill data, not the current data. But the high temperature only reached +4F which was the coldest daily high temp I ever recorded at my station. Seeing what is coming on Sunday made me think back to that Christmas day 34 years ago. I think the winds this time are going to be stronger, but maybe the temps will be just a tad warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hey guys, with all this talk about the crazy variations from run to run with the models, I figure I'd let you in on a project I'm working on. While the site is not anywhere near fully operational, it does have some products. And you'll quickly realize that the format is straight from the e-wall ( I do not have much CSS/style experience and just wanted functionality early on)... For now, it only uses 0.25 degree GFS data (and only 18z minus 12z runs, but that will change soon). My ultimate goal is the ability to compare any variable across any model run and model source. Even things like upper-air profiles which will prove useful in winter storm tracking. Anyway, feel free to check it out and provide questions/comments/insight! www.joshmagerman.info/apcpsfc/18z-12z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Maybe djr can verify this but I believe it was Christmas day 1980. I was living in north Jersey. The temp that morning was around 3 below zero with incredible sustained winds. When they gusted up into the 30's the wind chill on my weather station (Heathkit 4001) read -56 degrees! Of course, that was using the original wind chill data, not the current data. But the high temperature only reached +4F which was the coldest daily high temp I ever recorded at my station. Seeing what is coming on Sunday made me think back to that Christmas day 34 years ago. I think the winds this time are going to be stronger, but maybe the temps will be just a tad warmer. Christmas '83 was colder in Harrisburg than in 1980. In '83 the high was 7 with a low of -2. 1980 saw a high of 13 with a low of 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Cannot wait for the squalls tomorrow should be pretty epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just curious. Which is the better forecast to use from the NWS? The point and click or the county zone forecast? There is a bit of a discrepancy between the two for my location. Here is the point and click: Saturday A chance of snow before 10am, then snow likely between 10am and 4pm, then snow with areas of blowing snow after 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Wind chill values as low as zero. South wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow showers before 7pm, then snow showers likely with areas of blowing snow between 7pm and 10pm, then areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow showers after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 0. Wind chill values as low as -23. Windy, with a northwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 23 to 28 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Now here is the zone: Saturday Snow...mainly in the afternoon. Areas of blowing snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the mid 20s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Wind chill values as low as 2 below. Saturday Night Cloudy. A chance of snow showers along with locally heavier snow squalls in the evening...then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Areas of blowing snow. Snow may be heavy at times in the evening. Windy and cold with lows around zero. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. Wind chill values as low as 25 below. The point and click adds up to a cumulative range of 3-7 while the zone is just 1-3. The WWA is for 2-4. Just to add to the confusion, the 0z NAM map does show a possible 6+ inches for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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