mahantango#1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Any chance of Thunder tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wonder why BGM hasn't raised WWAs for the area. The potential for up to 5-6" of snow in some areas plus the wind I think would prompt a headline beyond wind chills... EDIT: Never mind! Just saw it. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY952 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-150300-/O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0009.150214T1200Z-150215T0600Z//O.CON.KBGM.WC.A.0003.150215T0600Z-150216T1500Z/NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...PENN YAN...SENECA FALLS...AUBURN...SYRACUSE...CORNING...HORNELL...WATKINS GLEN...ELMIRA...ITHACA...ONEIDA...UTICA...ROME...CORTLAND...NORWICH...ONEONTA...COOPERSTOWN...OWEGO...BINGHAMTON...WALTON...DELHI...MONTICELLO...TOWANDA...SAYRE...MONTROSE...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...MILFORD...HONESDALE952 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AMEST SUNDAY......WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHTTHROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.* HAZARDS...SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...3 TO 5 INCHES IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THEN HEAVIER SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING INCLUDING POSSIBLE WHITEOUTS. SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY...THEN NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.* WIND CHILLS...20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S SATURDAY...5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW BY SUNDAY...AND AS LOW AS TEENS BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS ROADS FROM SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND LOW VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MAY RESULT IN FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN...OR HYPOTHERMIA MAY OCCUR.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT BECAUSE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FORDANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. THE WIND CHILL COULD BECOME COLDENOUGH TO CAUSE FROSTBITE IN ABOUT 15 MINUTES OR LESS. IF YOU AREPLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS IN THE WATCH AREA...LISTEN FOR LATERFORECASTS AND STATEMENTS.A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWINGSNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERYROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-888-603-1402...OR BY EMAIL [email protected].&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS has 10m wind gusts of up to 54 knots Sunday morning in York and Lancaster counties. Pretty absurd. Going to be one wild weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS has 10m wind gusts of up to 54 knots Sunday morning in York and Lancaster counties. Pretty absurd. Going to be one wild weekendSeems like winds ramp up after sunrise, am I seeing that correctly?Edit: nm actually looks to mix 65 down all the way for 12 hours at MDT I think. Holy sh1t. I'm officially scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 for those who said Tuesday won't come north...... go look at the 0z GFS. On that note...a great way to go to bed. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS remains NW for next week. 0.25+ QPF for all, some in southern tier might have 0.50+. The precip lines edged NW from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Winds are looking crazy for tomorrow aftn to Sunday. If we get 2 inches with the wind it'll be my fav. event no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 -Paging Voyager for a county overlay- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GEFS boom.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The snow has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 EURO says buzz off, you'll get nothing and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Really surprised Euro didn't come in west with the GEFS being so much further west and GFS trending... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Really surprised Euro didn't come in west with the GEFS being so much further west and GFS trending... Euro has a known bias of keeping cutoff energy in the southwest US for too long. Perhaps that's coming into play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro has a known bias of keeping cutoff energy in the southwest US for too long. Perhaps that's coming into play here.I was actually thinking the same thing tonight Mallow when I saw that. That bias has reared its ugly head many times over the past years at this range. As long as the other globals are showing that energy getting absorbed, I'd like where we stand. I've been concentrating on tomorrow and Sunday so much. I don't want people to over look what's coming. It's going to be a doozy IMO. The cold and wind looks ferocious and the threat of snow squalls is the highest I've seen in a long while. Beautiful lapse rates from surface to 850 and the -50 to -70 VV's at 700 aren't bad either Edit: Those were from NAM output for the LSV just to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hey guys, with all this talk about the crazy variations from run to run with the models, I figure I'd let you in on a project I'm working on. While the site is not anywhere near fully operational, it does have some products. And you'll quickly realize that the format is straight from the e-wall ( I do not have much CSS/style experience and just wanted functionality early on)... For now, it only uses 0.25 degree GFS data (and only 18z minus 12z runs, but that will change soon). My ultimate goal is the ability to compare any variable across any model run and model source. Even things like upper-air profiles which will prove useful in winter storm tracking. Anyway, feel free to check it out and provide questions/comments/insight! www.joshmagerman.info/apcpsfc/18z-12z.html Screen Shot 2015-02-13 at 8.58.54 PM.png pretty cool idea. I suspect you would see trends in the models with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 -Paging Voyager for a county overlay- I was in bed. Getting up for work at 2:00am makes one tired by 10:00pm. I'll do one, but as of this post, the 6z is running. As for future maps, I can do them for most of the runs over the weekend, but Monday-Friday, I'll be working. I usually do a 12 hour shift from 4:00am to 4:00pm. 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6z is NASO good for most of PA. Cuts snowfall totals considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hey guys, with all this talk about the crazy variations from run to run with the models, I figure I'd let you in on a project I'm working on. While the site is not anywhere near fully operational, it does have some products. And you'll quickly realize that the format is straight from the e-wall ( I do not have much CSS/style experience and just wanted functionality early on)... For now, it only uses 0.25 degree GFS data (and only 18z minus 12z runs, but that will change soon). My ultimate goal is the ability to compare any variable across any model run and model source. Even things like upper-air profiles which will prove useful in winter storm tracking. Anyway, feel free to check it out and provide questions/comments/insight! www.joshmagerman.info/apcpsfc/18z-12z.html Screen Shot 2015-02-13 at 8.58.54 PM.png Nice project Jmister!Woke to a dusting of snow this morning. Waiting for the snow to arrive this afternoon. Doesn't look like I will be doing much outside activity tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Some of the models are suggesting there will be a small (~50-100 J kg^-1) amount of CAPE in the environment ahead of the front today. For example, here is the 06z NAM for 22z. You can see temperature decreases slightly faster with height than the parcel moist adiabat (yellow). It's interesting to note that the profile is also roughly ice saturated from the surface to at least 650 mb. That suggests the presence of a MAUL (moist absolutely unstable layer), which can be sustained only if lifting is strong enough to continuously increase lapse rates, as the atmosphere mixes this instability out. I would not be surprised if some across central PA heard some thunder today, especially within the more-intense cells. Should be interesting to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is quite a fascinating weather event for sure. Thanks to you (and Mag as well) for your contributions and insights on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 very interestng Heavy. Thanks for sharing. Now i just need to reread it......about 9 more times to "injest data". Still learning. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6z is NASO good for most of PA. Cuts snowfall totals considerably. 6z GFS.jpg Wonderful, a trend toward the EURO. sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Heavy, thanks for the headsup on the thundersnow. What Linux you running? Edit: Good Morning Allweather...thanks for your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wonderful, a trend toward the EURO. sigh... Guidance is notorious for not handling southern stream cut off vort maxes very well, especially when they interact with the northern stream like is expected with this one. Expect some pretty sudden changes in the evolution of the track between model runs in the coming days. For better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wonderful, a trend toward the EURO. sigh... 6z.... nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 11z HRRR at 6pm. Not bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Heavy, thanks for the headsup on the thundersnow. What Linux you running? Edit: Good Morning Allweather...thanks for your thoughts. Ubuntu 14.04. It didn't use to be this way, but the BUFKIT developers have made the program (originally for windows machines) pretty much 100% compatible with wine. Still a decent amount of time for the potential mid-week system to be resolved. The southern stream energy is still over the Pacific while the northern stream disturbance is currently located near the north pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm anticipating power outages later, our area is notorious for them. Hell we lose power if someone on the mountain farts wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm anticipating power outages later, our area is notorious for them. Hell we lose power if someone on the mountain farts wrong. yeah...this afternoon has me a little nervous. my daughter is up at Wilkes Univ. to see her boyfriend, and I've already texted her to get on the road asap. and I'm not usually one to worry. 81 is no fun in snowsqualls or high wind.....OR BOTH. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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