Itunis Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 HRRR doesnt like Susq Valley from IPT to MDT. Looks like both of those short range models also have a snow minimum over lewistown area. I can guess that maybe it's the lower elevations helping to downslope the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Point and click says 3-5", sounds pretty reasonable. You have the link for the point & click? Or is it a weather app? Wmsptwx whatever we get we will be adding to our totals. So far CPT map hasn't changed which I thought it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 You have the link for the point & click? Or is it a weather app? Wmsptwx whatever we get we will be adding to our totals. So far CPT map hasn't changed which I thought it would. It's just the point and click at weather.gov/CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 BGM's taken mention of non-snow precip out of the forecast entirely and only gets us to 34 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 For what it's worth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Going to be interesting to see how this plays out. It never really felt like there was broad consensus among models. Tough forecast. Good luck to all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 From Eric Horst: "Heavy snow falling over parts of southern OH and central WV. Columbus, OH picked up 4" in the past 3 hours!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 From Eric Horst: "Heavy snow falling over parts of southern OH and central WV. Columbus, OH picked up 4" in the past 3 hours!" a lot of obs with 1/2 or 1/4sm visibility too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Seeing first flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Seeing first flakes guess there is no concerns with the dry air we had the past two days eating up much of the precip with how quickly reports of flakes reaching surface are occurring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 guess there is no concerns with the dry air we had the past two days eating up much of the precip with how quickly reports of flakes reaching surface are occurring Definitely. Have been watching the radar and lack of any virga is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Definitely. Have been watching the radar and lack of any virga is encouraging. Looks like some solid stuff over Altoona coming our way. We need MAG here for the upstream obs haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 If you believe the multiple short range models then nearly all of Cumberland county is a snow hole. Looks like about 3" max for me. I know the question has been asked already, but what would cause such a unique drop off of precip in such a relatively small geographic area? It looks like the precip echoes are coming in from the southwest and not due west. That should mean the precip parallels Blue Mountain which I would think would negate downslope. Disheartening news (for my area) to say the least. Looks like it also affects you, djr, and Sauss and Canderson. (I know it's not just Cumberland county but I'm focusing on my local region as I comment). Perhaps it will be more uniformly distributed? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Unless our precip is notably lighter in main bands I'm disregarding weird trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 If the HRRR verifies I quit winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 snowing pretty good - 13 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Does that map update every hour with what it expects for the entire event? It looks like it shifted the heavier stuff from Adams/York/Lancaster back south into northern Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Coming down nicely now even though returns seem to be weakening a bit as they get over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Pretty much the first to report the dreaded V word lol, virga with good returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAM looks solud Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snowing in Carroll County - New Windsor. Snow began about 5 minutes after the returns were overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snowing in Carroll County - New Windsor. Snow began about 5 minutes after the returns were overhead. Excellent news! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snowing decently with very fine flakes. . Wind has picked up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAM has nearly .75 QPF for the LSV, with slightly more toward the MasOn-Dixon line. I think we in great shape for our best event of the year here, which by most accounts has been 3 to 4 inches. I think today we should be near 6 inches of snow near MDT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We went from pixie dust SN- to moderate snow within 20 minutes in New Windsor. That front band is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow started about 10 min ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 My wind is still coming out of the East 12mph. It's cold out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Steady light snow here. It looks like there may be an area of subsidence later this evening between the developing front over eastern PA and the md-level frontogenesis/upslope precipitation over the Allegheny plateau. Also, 925 mb winds look to be mainly south-southeasterly which may produce some downsloping effects in the valleys. There still should be some decent WAA/isentropic lift to force ascent this afternoon over a more broad region of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I love how the high res models and the NAM show that some of the highest snow totals (warning criteria) will fall in southern York and Lancaster counties near the line, but yet State College refuses to put out a winter storm warning. They are going to get burned big time if the NAM is right... Update: Hahaha and as soon as I posted that, they did it! Finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Penndot just kicked me in the nuts. Driving on 30, west York and the digital sign said winter storm warning. Very hopeful, I got to sheetz, pulled up nws, and nope. Dangit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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