NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The GFS right now is nowhere close to what other models are showing precip wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I wonder when BGM will pull the trigger on a warning or advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The GFS right now is nowhere close to what other models are showing precip wise.What does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I was working and wondering if anyone could answer my questions. 1. How much snow is Cambria County looking to get? 2. Is Cambria County in the QPF hole I have read about in this forum. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 What does it show? Almost the entire region <0.50 QPF...scatterings of <0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ehhh at this point we just have to hope WAA works out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Not that it matters too much, but the forecast low is a bust here as well. Was 6, we are currently at 4.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 MDT went from 2 to 7 in about 35 mins I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Almost the entire region <0.50 QPF...scatterings of <0.25Ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I was working and wondering if anyone could answer my questions. 1. How much snow is Cambria County looking to get? 2. Is Cambria County in the QPF hole I have read about in this forum. Thanks The QPF hole that has been discussed about has generally been modeled just east of the Laurels. I still don't particularly agree on such a pronounced downsloping look and associated lower totals in the central counties in this setup. At any rate, the Laurels region is perhaps the best positioned to see some of the highest QPF and potential totals from this system. CTP's updated warning statement mentions mostly 4-7" with possibly up to 9" in the Laurels, which I think is reasonable. The high ground of that region is obviously going to squeeze a bit more QPF, but I think precip will be more uniform across the rest of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The QPF hole that has been discussed about has generally been modeled just east of the Laurels. I still don't particularly agree on such a pronounced downsloping look and associated lower totals in the central counties in this setup. At any rate, the Laurels region is perhaps the best positioned to see some of the highest QPF and potential totals from this system. CTP's updated warning statement mentions mostly 4-7" with possibly up to 9" in the Laurels, which I think is reasonable. The high ground of that region is obviously going to squeeze a bit more QPF, but I think precip will be more uniform across the rest of the state. Thanks. I have to work tomorrow also, which should be fun. It's -2 here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Meanwhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Not that it matters too much, but the forecast low is a bust here as well. Was 6, we are currently at 4.4. Busted by 8 (so far) here. Forecast was +1 and we are (in MY backyard) -6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Currently 7 in my home for the weekend in Dillsburg. Not looking forward to the ride back here from the farm show tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Some pretty cold numbers around my area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Okay, so the low passes to our west and we get 6-8" from a frontal passage? Weird. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service State College PA 442 am EST Sat Feb 21 2015 We have a very vexing system to contend with over the next 12-24 hours. Most 00z guidance has downplayed quantitative precipitation forecast potential for what essentially is a cold frontal passage. Confidence is high in: - snow arriving this morning over most of Montana forecast area. - Southern PA most likely seeing the highest amounts. - Some sort of wintry mix eventually getting involved over southeastern areas. - A fairly widespread plowable snow. Confidence is low in: - higher end amounts being much above warning threshold numbers. - Model qpf's in general...though the lower trend seems to make sense. Widespread light snow is breaking out over Ohio in an area of strong warm advection well out ahead of the surface low that is still over northern Texas/southern Oklahoma at this time. Short range guidance in good agreement tracking the system west of PA overnight and pushing a cold front through the region by Sunday morning. Past experience has taught it's hard/rare to get widespread warning snowfall with cold fronts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I just went over to the NYC forum, and guess what??? They are STILL bickering back and forth. I am so glad that: a. I don't live over there and have to rely on them for information and analysis... b. that we have a great bunch of folks here, who, even when we disagree or complain, keep it mostly civil and polite... It's a classic case of more not equalling better. There are few intelligent posters over there, but you have to really weed through the BS to find them...and their posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I guess if you get that worked up over a difference in 4 or 6 inches of snow maybe they have deeper issues lol. The only way I'd even get bummed anymore is to miss out on a high impact storm, otherwise take what you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I just went over to the NYC forum, and guess what??? They are STILL bickering back and forth. I am so glad that: a. I don't live over there and have to rely on them for information and analysis... b. that we have a great bunch of folks here, who, even when we disagree or complain, keep it mostly civil and polite... It's a classic case of more not equalling better. There are few intelligent posters over there, but you have to really weed through the BS to find them...and their posts. Only about 5 posters there and their egos make it almost unbearable. That's my new local forum. I miss this happy place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Only about 5 posters there and their egos make it almost unbearable. That's my new local forum. I miss this happy place. Jim, you are welcome here any time. Don't be a stranger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 This has been quite the cold spell here in Tamaqua. One I haven't seen the likes of in quite some time. Ten consecutive days of low temps below 10 degrees, with six of them being sub-zero. 2/12... +7 2/13... +1 2/14... +1 2/15... -2 2/16... -5 2/17... +3 2/18... -4 2/19... -1 2/20... -6 2/21... -7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Moving in fast. Pittsburgh, Meadville, and Latrobe already reporting light snow at 7:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Allweather believes in the snow! Just woke up during his broadcast and he said their map might need edged upwards again. Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Allweather believes in the snow! Just woke up during his broadcast and he said their map might need edged upwards again. Yes please Well the radar is quite impressive so far this morning. If it holds together through the mountains, and maintains it's current trajectory, we all should (hopefully) do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Allweather believes in the snow! Just woke up during his broadcast and he said their map might need edged upwards again. Yes please Both the HRRR/RAP (shown below) have an area of enhancement along the M-D Line. Radar trends seem to support this a bit. I could be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 What Voager said- a lot of moisture heading our way. I got down to 2 degrees last night currently 11 degrees. Radar - http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php AllWeather HRR looks pretty good. Have a good day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Point and click says 3-5", sounds pretty reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Both the HRRR/RAP (shown below) have an area of enhancement along the M-D Line. Radar trends seem to support this a bit. I could be wrong... Capture.PNG Snow map has def increased from last night. Local climo argues the 7-9" range to extend east to cover south mountain. Upslope plus better ratios enhance totals this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 HRRR doesnt like Susq Valley from IPT to MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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