Blizz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 CMC huge hit for SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If you want snow for Saturday and Saturday night, the models made great trends tonight. The LP out to the west coming in less amped helps. 850mb winds from the south coming in hot at 50-60kts with great lift ahead of the approaching warm front from the south heading into an arctic airmass will create a nice swath of moderate to heavy precip in the cold air in place. A good example of a WCB gone right if the models tonight are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Down to 0 at the zero hour.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 European looks to be a moderate to significant hit to most of the Commonwealth. Hour 42 - 0.1-0.25" western half of PA, 0.25-0.50" western PA west of a roughly a Cumberland, MD to Clearfield line, 0.5 - 0.75" far SW corner of PA. Hour 48 - Broad 0.25-0.50 in most of PA except 0.1-0.25" in NW and SE corners Hour 54 - 0.1-0.25" in Laurels/SW PA as well as LSV and NE PA and 0.25-0.5" in Philly region and all of NJ. 850s look generally safe for snow in PA throughout the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 European looks to be a moderate to significant hit to most of the Commonwealth. Hour 42 - 0.1-0.25" western half of PA, 0.25-0.50" western PA west of a roughly a Cumberland, MD to Clearfield line, 0.5 - 0.75" far SW corner of PA. Hour 48 - Broad 0.25-0.50 in most of PA except 0.1-0.25" in NW and SE corners Hour 54 - 0.1-0.25" in Laurels/SW PA as well as LSV and NE PA and 0.25-0.5" in Philly region and all of NJ. 850s look generally safe for snow in PA throughout the event. 850s don't seem to be the issue, the problem is below that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 850s don't seem to be the issue, the problem is below that... Yea i was kinda surprised that the Eurowx map didn't have much in SE PA. Only going off an MSLP/precip/850 map for the initial look. I'll have the full suite to look at here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 -2 here at this ungodly hour. 3 degrees colder than Monday at this same tiime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We've got a tie for the record. -2 at the 2am check. Temp has been consistently dropping one degree at every hour since 10pm at the airport: 10pm: 2 11pm: 1 12am: 0 1am: -1 2am: -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro is an absolute weenie run. 2 Nor Easters follow this weekends threat verbatim. Entire northeast burried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 -5ºF here. Winds have settled and it's pretty clear so might really be able to bottom out. The one Smethport mesowest station is reporting -22ºF and thats the coldest one I see in the CTP area currently. Station in Mercer just to the east of Hermitage in western PA is reporting -23ºF. Honorable mention to Erie International (KERI) reporting -15ºF currently. You know the lake's froze solid when you get that kind of a reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Currently -6 here and -7/-17 at the airport—looks like the record of -8 might just fall. BTW - Have looked at just about every weather app out there over the years, and Weather Underground's apps have consistently remained among my favorites. They've just released a new one called "Storm" and it's a real gem on the iPad. Definitely my current favorite of all–by far. It's a nice culmination of all their prior experience in mobile device interface design and includes some great features. It's a real winner, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 -2 here. Fell short of my goal of -4. Regardless, it was a brisk walk into the office this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 6z NAM would be beautiful... yes please! waiting to see what temps end up at 7am... pretty much only Philly above 0 in PA right now which is pretty impressive on Feb 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 -3 here this morning. Our record was -8 so it's still enact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Have tied the record low of -8 here. Windchill of -29. The warning was justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 -2 here. Fell short of my goal of -4. Regardless, it was a brisk walk into the office this morning. i had -1 6z NAM would be beautiful... yes please! waiting to see what temps end up at 7am... pretty much only Philly above 0 in PA right now which is pretty impressive on Feb 20 looks like almost 10" doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Still no snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 i had -1 looks like almost 10" doesn't it? wish we could trust the models at this range lol... MDT still at 0 at 7am with a peak 6 hour low of 0... so of course we don't go under 0 when we expect to once again... I am at -3... winds just never died down enough for temps to crash like northwest PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Still no snow... Is that because the graphic only applies to the next 24 hours? Was created at 6:31 this morning. Don't think we're supposed to get anything accumulating until after sunrise or later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Is that because the graphic only applies to the next 24 hours? Was created at 6:31 this morning. Don't think we're supposed to get anything accumulating until after sunrise or later tomorrow.A lot of times they do their maps for 48hrs.Edit: last night they put a snow map out that was good for 3 hours. That's a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The afd by state college is rather meh. Don't seem impressed at all. Mt holly has a 4-6 inch snowfall map that looks like would cover much of the LSV if extended. 4-6 inch snowfall would be significant and in some places the biggest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 wish we could trust the models at this range lol... MDT still at 0 at 7am with a peak 6 hour low of 0... so of course we don't go under 0 when we expect to once again... I am at -3... winds just never died down enough for temps to crash like northwest PA When i got up this morning at 5 i looked at MDT and saw they still had the goose egg and i said to my wife we didn't get a record. I figured those winds would hurt us, i was hoping they would have died down overnight and like you said they never did. They were still whipping when i came into work too. I'd like to lock this baby down for Saturday, see if you can work on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 They have snow forecasts for Mt Holley, Sterling, State College is the only one without a snow map. http://www.weather.gov/phi/StormTotalSnowFcst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarks green snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 -10 at 7AM. BITTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Had -1 overnight. Now 0. CTP zone forecast gives MDT 4-8l tomorrow fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This morning's AFD for our area seems to indicate past experience is influencing the forecast more than the models: "Short term /Saturday/... precipitation will overspread the area Saturday in response to a broad area of MDT-strong warm advection. A strong southwesterly low level jet...1-3 South Dakota above normal...is forecast to surge into the region during the day. We start off very cold so a good chunk of whatever falls will be snow...but the model qpf's are very dubious...especially the operational European model (ecmwf) which would result in most of my western zones seeing 6-10 inches of snow...which I can't ever remember happening with a parent low that should move up to our north and west." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 With a low of 0, it would take a high of 34 today or higher for Harrisburg to not move into 1st for coldest February today... Pittsburgh currently at 4th coldest... Not sure about State College rank but I know it is within a degree of the record now... Harrisburg tied record low this morning, missed tying yesterday's by 1 degree but did tie lowest average temp for the 19th... record lowest average temp for the 20th is 11 so with an expected high of 15 we will break that for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Had -1 overnight. Now 0. CTP zone forecast gives MDT 4-8l tomorrow fwiw. So why no wsw? Thousands of people are traveling tomorrow to Harrisburg for this big show. I'm leaving tonjght not going to risk it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So why no wsw? Thousands of people are traveling tomorrow to Harrisburg for this big show. I'm leaving tonjght not going to risk it. Probably low confidence. I'm sure they will pull the trigger near or after the 12Z models run if things hold or trend colder/wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.