Wmsptwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gotta say I'm not a fan of the precip hole that keeps showing up for true central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No advisory for us here in the SE corner of the CTP world Guess their thinking is we might get too warm? Or perhaps waiting until all the 12 pm guidance comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No advisory for us here in the SE corner of the CTP world Guess their thinking is we might get too warm? Or perhaps waiting until all the 12 pm guidance comes through. CTP is ALWAYS last to the dance. Not bashing...just stating facts. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Horst excited, now I am. Sent from my iPhone I would agree that if Horst is saying something is coming, then pretty good chance there is. A very level headed MET as all the others on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No advisory for us here in the SE corner of the CTP world Guess their thinking is we might get too warm? Or perhaps waiting until all the 12 pm guidance comes through. Will be soon. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Will be soon. Sent from my iPhone Not sure about that. The 10:20am update for 17501 shows 1-3" of snow tomorrow before mixing. Mentions possible light accums tomorrow night, but sound like they are hugging the warmer solutions for the LSV. in a word.....UGH. Issued 10:20am EST -- Fri, Feb 20, 2015 Rest of today Sunny. Continued cold with highs around 15. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Wind chill values as low as 15 below. Tonight Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Cold with lows around 5 above. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming south after midnight. Saturday A chance of snow in the morning, then snow, rain and freezing rain in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Not as cold with highs in the upper 20s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Wind chill values as low as 9 below in the morning. Saturday night Rain, freezing rain and snow, mainly in the evening. Additional light snow accumulation. Not as cool. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 WSWs in northern part of baltimore and dc counties. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm bored at work -- have code running -- so I took a look to see how February 2015 is doing in terms of mean temperature here in State College. Currently, the monthly mean temperature is 18.6 F. If we assume that the NWS point forecast for University Park verifies (and use 0z GFS MOS for the 28 Feb high and low) and take account of the fact that CO-OP observations are done at 12z (thus, some double-counting, so to speak, of cold nights), the 'final' mean temperature should be 16.8 F, which is a full degree below that of the coldest February on record here, 1979, which had a mean temperature of 17.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Got down to -10 lastnight. What a brutal week. Sitting at 7 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm officially sick of cold lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Got down to -10 lastnight. What a brutal week. Sitting at 7 now. Clearfield airport temperature sensor looks to be broken or something isn't right because it has been running much warmer than surroundings since the jump from -3 F to +5 F from 8 to 9pm last night... For those looking for warmth... apparently it is currently 63 degrees in Beaver Falls PA thanks to the missing negative flag for C temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 11:30 in the morning and its 4 degrees...unbelievable. ...and more snow and cold on its way. Anyone think this is worse than last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Clearfield airport temperature sensor looks to be broken or something isn't right because it has been running much warmer than surroundings since the jump from -3 F to +5 F from 8 to 9pm last night... For those looking for warmth... apparently it is currently 63 degrees in Beaver Falls PA thanks to the missing negative flag for C temp. I noticed that as well. The airport is usually a degree or so colder than i am.They have a little elevation on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 11:30 in the morning and its 4 degrees...unbelievable. ...and more snow and cold on its way. Anyone think this is worse than last winter? This stretch is but the persistence of last winter was damn impressive. We've had a few weeks only, last year it was two or more months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 11:30 in the morning and its 4 degrees...unbelievable. ...and more snow and cold on its way. Anyone think this is worse than last winter? Last winter i had continuous, solid snowcover from the first days of February until mid March. Unprecedented for my area. 33" of snow in February and brutal cold. This winter would be talked about for years...except that it's following last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 WSW's posted for a swath through central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gotta say I'm not a fan of the precip hole that keeps showing up for true central pa. Agreed. With most of the lower atmosphere having westerly to southwesterly flow, I'm wondering if downsloping is going to be a problem for those of us with higher terrain immediately to the west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This stretch is but the persistence of last winter was damn impressive. We've had a few weeks only, last year it was two or more months. I don't know. It's been persistently below normal since the second week of January now. Let's tally it up at the end of March. But for now, looking at just JFM, and conveniently ignoring December (cooler last year than this year, but both above normal), and using the 120 year means: For State College: 2014 Jan: -6.95 Feb: -4.03 Mar: -6.11 2015: Jan: -4.04 Feb: -11.18 (projected) Mar: ??? Clearly, 2015 is winning for JF. March will decide things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This stretch is but the persistence of last winter was damn impressive. We've had a few weeks only, last year it was two or more months. I think the few warmer days that we had mixed in with the cold last January and into Feb helped make this year seem a little colder. There were 4 days total last Jan/Feb that had highs below 20F at MDT... we have had 4 just this week... the reason we are chasing records is temps have been near or below normal for almost 2 months straight now... after the snow event Jan 6th (I think that's the right date) we have only hit the 40 degree mark 4 times with 42 being warmest of that... that helps to keep average temps down and allows for near record cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yea mallow that's all I could think of too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Agreed. With most of the lower atmosphere having westerly to southwesterly flow, I'm wondering if downsloping is going to be a problem for those of us with higher terrain immediately to the west... I agree... if you look at the 850 mb flow when there appears to be a hole in central PA's precip (hour 36 on the 12Z runs), there's very strong southwesterly winds off the Laurel Highlands. Also, I think dry surface air is causing problems. This cold air with its ridiculously low dew points doesn't want to budge and the high theta air simply glides overtop. The whole situation is quite unusual... It has the appearance of a cold air dam, but I'm not sure if it really is. I don't see a high. Snow on southerly winds, who woulda thunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't know. It's been persistently below normal since the second week of January now. Let's tally it up at the end of March. But for now, looking at just JFM, and conveniently ignoring December (cooler last year than this year, but both above normal), and using the 120 year means: For State College: 2014 Jan: -6.95 Feb: -4.03 Mar: -6.11 2015: Jan: -4.04 Feb: -11.18 (projected) Mar: ??? Clearly, 2015 is winning for JF. March will decide things. Wow. Putting it in numbers .. that's hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z Euro looks to keep 850mb 0C line south of Mason-Dixon whole event... wonder if that is true at all levels... to me GFS is warm outlier still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow. Putting it in numbers .. that's hard to believe. Yeah, it's mind-blowing really. I remember thinking to myself last year that this may be a once-in-a-generation winter with respect to cold. I thought the same thing about the Great Lakes ice cover as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z Euro looks to keep 850mb 0C line south of Mason-Dixon whole event... wonder if that is true at all levels... to me GFS is warm outlier still... Good..,EURO catching on.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Did Eric Horst put out his map at noon? I didn't see on his Twitter feed or the MU pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What's euro showing precip wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Did Eric Horst put out his map at noon? I didn't see on his Twitter feed or the MU pages. No map yet. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No map yet. Sent from my iPhone I work with him for PennDot. I have his map for it and the excel file with the broken down details, but I'm not allowed to post or share them. I'll tell you he likes this possibly the biggest event so far snow wise before a flip. Haven't talked to him today yet to see if his ideas have changed with latest guidance. Edit: This is his PennDot map I'm talking about. This is isn't his public map just to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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