KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ok mets, what are your thoughts on the storm, I know that there were feedback issues on the models, but the nam and gfs trended very wet overnight...swpa is now showing a major storm. The issue seems to be warm air, but at least a front end thump of heavy snow looks good... What you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ok mets, what are your thoughts on the storm, I know that there were feedback issues on the models, but the nam and gfs trended very wet overnight...swpa is now showing a major storm. The issue seems to be warm air, but at least a front end thump of heavy snow looks good... What you guys think? NAM and especially GFS have been too warm with over running type scenarios a few times already this winter so if those rates are heavy enough the cold air certainly could hold on long enough, but I dont think those events had the western low track... the concern i guess mainly is with the western track of the low, while weak, is at what level will warmer air be pulled into region first and where will the all snow vs mixing line set up if we dont stay all snow across most of southern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Horst excited, now I am. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 THE MODELS ARE FINALLY SHOWING A FAIR DEGREE OF STABILITY WITH REGARDS TO THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO SHEAR NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY FRI AND SAT. THE 00Z MODELS OVERALL HAVE COME IN A TAD STRONGER BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND DEPTH...AND THEY ALL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A RELATIVELY FLAT SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRI AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SAT NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM IS NOW THE WEAKEST SOLUTION...WITH THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z GEM AND 00Z ECMWF ALL CLUSTERED TOGETHER PRETTY WELL ON A MODESTLY STRONGER SOLUTION. BASED ON THE TRENDS AND MODEL CLUSTERING...WILL LEAN TOWARD A NON-NAM CONSENSUS. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sizeable snow totals increase on the new 09z SREFs, at least in State College. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150220&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PSB&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=40.63662579618304&mLON=-78.02059806213379&mTYP=roadmap 21z yesterday ~ 3.5" mean 03z today ~ 5.5" mean 09z today ~ 7" mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sneaky storm tomorrow. Probably the money storm for everyone. If the 12z guidance stays cold/wet, game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sizeable snow totals increase on the new 09z SREFs, at least in State College. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150220&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PSB&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=40.63662579618304&mLON=-78.02059806213379&mTYP=roadmap 21z yesterday ~ 3.5" mean 03z today ~ 5.5" mean 09z today ~ 7" mean That is a great link that should be part of every forecaster's toolkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Windchill of -28 per the latest obs here. I don't envy my friend who had to help setup for THON this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Record was solidly broken here. Low was -6, even colder than Monday. The one degree per hour trend also continued through the 5am report. 10pm: 2 11pm: 1 12am: 0 1am: -1 2am: -2 3am: -3 4am: -4 5am: -5 6am: -5 7am: -6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM coming cold looks like a great front end dump like I said this would happen this weekend as I will be in Mexico good luck all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM coming cold looks like a great front end dump like I said this would happen this weekend as I will be in Mexico good luck all Lol...thanks for taking the trip...win-win for all as I would live to be in Mexico. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 With a low of 0, it would take a high of 34 today or higher for Harrisburg to not move into 1st for coldest February today... Pittsburgh currently at 4th coldest... Not sure about State College rank but I know it is within a degree of the record now... Harrisburg tied record low this morning, missed tying yesterday's by 1 degree but did tie lowest average temp for the 19th... record lowest average temp for the 20th is 11 so with an expected high of 15 we will break that for sure 17.8F (1979) is the coldest February mean in State College. Sitting at 18.6F through the 20th, which puts State College in 3rd place, just ahead of 1934! If CTP's forecast verifies, we will finish the month with a mean of 16.6F, handily beating the old record. If anything, CTP's forecast is biased warm over the next 10 days compared to deterministic output. It's remarkable that the first half of February we had near average temperatures. The last half will average near 10F. Another interesting stat is that the high of 8F yesterday is the latest sub-10F high on record. That's after we had the earliest sub-20F high on record back in November. Also, we may see 17 or more days in a row with sub-10F lows. That may be a record too. Of course, this record is somewhat reliant on State College's climatology being based on 12Z to 12Z. Even more remarkable is when you include January means. The 16.6F would rank as the 3rd coldest monthly mean. Only January 1977 (13.4F) and January 1918 (14.6F) were colder. That's extremely elite company. We're living through weather history! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Lol...thanks for taking the trip...win-win for all as I would live to be in Mexico.Sent from my iPhone Thanks I said it a while back when we were frustrated with missing out. I am happy for all of you hope this is the biggest storm for the LSV and it looks like statewide so all wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 17.8F (1979) is the coldest February mean in State College. Sitting at 18.6F through the 20th, which puts State College in 3rd place, just ahead of 1934! If CTP's forecast verifies, we will finish the month with a mean of 16.6F, handily beating the old record. If anything, CTP's forecast is biased warm over the next 10 days compared to deterministic output. It's remarkable that the first half of February we had near average temperatures. The last half will average near 10F. Another interesting stat is that the high of 8F yesterday is the latest sub-10F high on record. That's after we had the earliest sub-20F high on record back in November. Also, we may see 17 or more days in a row with sub-10F lows. That may be a record too. Of course, this record is somewhat reliant on State College's climatology being based on 12Z to 12Z. Even more remarkable is when you include January means. The 16.6F would rank as the 3rd coldest monthly mean. Only January 1977 (13.4F) and January 1918 (14.6F) were colder. That's extremely elite company. We're living through weather history! Certainly an impressive cold stretch. I would rather be in Mexico though than experience any more sub-10F highs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I imagine should the rest of the 12z suite come in looking decent CTP will get the ball rolling with warnings/advisories. Given the uncertainty and the fact that this will be coming in on the weekend I can see why they might wait longer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I imagine should the rest of the 12z suite come in looking decent CTP will get the ball rolling with warnings/advisories. Given the uncertainty and the fact that this will be coming in on the weekend I can see why they might wait longer than normal. Agreed. If this was a weekday event they may have issued WSWatches. Also, they may not have wanted to distract the public from the dangerous temperatures. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM's also brutal on Monday again with northern areas back below 0; -10s even showing up NW of UNV-IPT. Also shows the LSV falling through the single digits Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Agreed. If this was a weekday event they may have issued WSWatches. Also, they may not have wanted to distract the public from the dangerous temperatures.Sent from my iPhone Good point on the dangerous temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 A week or two ago NWS had a bulletin and said "WHEN CAN WE EXPECT A WARM UP? THINK JUNE" They were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sizeable snow totals increase on the new 09z SREFs, at least in State College. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150220&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PSB&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=40.63662579618304&mLON=-78.02059806213379&mTYP=roadmap 21z yesterday ~ 3.5" mean 03z today ~ 5.5" mean 09z today ~ 7" mean Ran the plumes for AVP too. A 6.4" mean after removing an outlier - one member had almost 12". Solid clustering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Do you mind doing that for MDT? It's blocking me here at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Do you mind doing that for MDT? It's blocking me here at work. Closest site available is "HAR": Full run - Without outliers - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015022000/I_nw_r1_EST_2015022000_044.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Thanks! My biggest snowfall to date this season is iirc 3.25" - I'll take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 winter storm watch just posted for Cumberland county 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Thanks! My biggest snowfall to date this season is iirc 3.25" - I'll take it and run. Chris...I didn't know your biggest was only 3.25". Now I don't feel so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 CTPs got a snow map up. 4-6" here would be great, and it looks like almost all of the area gets an advisory level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 winter storm watch just posted for Cumberland county 5-8" Wow -- what a drastic change from CTP. They were a tad late to the party, however. But better late than never. If I can even manage to get to 5" I don't care about 8". (Well, maybe that's not completely true). If we get this much, we will have a great base to work with for low temps early next week. I'm still holding out for cracking -1. Was -0.3 degrees this morning and was -0.6 degrees Wednesday morning. What is it with this Zero barrier down here? The crazy thing is that I'm one of the best radiators in my area. If the winds went calm I easily would have seen -5 or lower this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Chris...I didn't know your biggest was only 3.25". Now I don't feel so bad. I would bet his 3.25" is on 1-24-15. he measured his and though i'm just across the mighty susky, i measured 4", which is the biggest for me to date! Wow -- what a drastic change from CTP. They were a tad late to the party, however. But better late than never. If I can even manage to get to 5" I don't care about 8". (Well, maybe that's not completely true). If we get this much, we will have a great base to work with for low temps early next week. I'm still holding out for cracking -1. Was -0.3 degrees this morning and was -0.6 degrees Wednesday morning. What is it with this Zero barrier down here? The crazy thing is that I'm one of the best radiators in my area. If the winds went calm I easily would have seen -5 or lower this morning. Yep, the winds last night into this morning killed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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