Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Track wise they both look great. I'm expecting more than 6 inches and possibly as much as 12 if banding is nearby..Could care less qpf At some point you have to take QPF output seriously. Only a couple are tossing out robust amounts and even those are pretty much relegated to eastern areas, 4-8" would be my ballpark in the hills there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Great. How do the NAM and RGEM look in your backyard? lol I love when Blizz starts tossing all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I agree, but I'll have to take a look to see why it's sort of meh as you guys describe. Looking at it myself, the H5 low doesn't deepen as much as we'd want despite a track that digs further south off the M.A. coast...so it kind of lets all that crap out to the east rot and move more north rather than ripping the whole thing back west. But its a fine line obviously. Powderkeg setup doesn't sit easy with me to forecast mundane...but OTOH, maybe this thing really does take a track E of ACY and fails to deliver...maybe the dual low out to the east is right. I've never seen a 5H track like this NOT deliever pretty big, but we've seen a lot of stuff this winter that we don't usually see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 for the queens...half inch of QPF from about ORH eastward including most of RI. 0.75" from the outer Cape to Cape Ann/PSM area. there are qpf queens in nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At some point you have to take QPF output seriously. Only a couple are tossing out robust amounts and even those are pretty much relegated to eastern areas, 4-8" would be my ballpark in the hills there. 4-8 or 5-10 is probably fine for most in eastern MA. That's all I'm expecting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Could someone comment on how Maine did on the Euro? I heard Downeast get's destroyed. I know Southern New England isn't super happy... LEW: 0.91" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LEW: 0.91" Thanks Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LEW: 0.91" Thank you sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 4-8 or 5-10 is probably fine for most in eastern MA. That's all I'm expecting here. North shore over south shore in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Tempering expectations to 4-8 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Only 48 hrs left, and maybe I'm being a , but I feel like it's pretty clear that the possibility of this trending/verifying better, given the setup, is far higher than the possibility of this trending more ots or weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Only 48 hrs left, and maybe I'm being a , but I feel like it's pretty clear that the possibility of this trending/verifying better, given the setup, is far higher than the possibility of this trending more ots or weaker Pretty clear because the setup/elements involved, I trust... because so far today -- outside of one model -- it's looked worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 it's hard to go higher than 4 - 6" max out this way. nice refresher either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Given most guidance at 12z today I'd go with 8-12 NE mass.... 5-9 orh east down through RI anand Se mass and extreme eastern CT with 3-5 west of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Given most guidance at 12z today I'd go with 8-12 NE mass.... 5-9 orh east down through RI anand Se mass and extreme eastern CT with 3-5 west of that You are Not feeling this ha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Given most guidance at 12z today I'd go with 8-12 NE mass.... 5-9 orh east down through RI anand Se mass and extreme eastern CT with 3-5 west of that Include ORH in the 8-12" just because... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I may be way off with this but from what is being described with that ULL moving off of ACY it reminds me of April, 1982. If so, I guess this is just too progressive to be a repeat of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I may be way off with this but from what is being described with that ULL moving off of ACY it reminds me of April, 1982. If so, I guess this is just too progressive to be a repeat of that? History tends to repeat itself, and history is absolutely littered with disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think you are off one contour...it barely misses 0.75 at BOS That's 30" at 40:1. Thinkin about 2-5" for central/west CT with 3-7" in their far eastern counties I'm guessing that's about right. it's hard to go higher than 4 - 6" max out this way. nice refresher either way. Yup. Probably achieve advisory levels, though even falling short of that they'd likely be necessary with the breeze. 9.2/-11, I I wonder if I might eek out a sub 10. Not likel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here's my map, revision 2. We'll see how it goes. I still have a feeling (that some of you also share) that someone in SNE is going to get surprised by this storm with a few extra inches than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I may be way off with this but from what is being described with that ULL moving off of ACY it reminds me of April, 1982. If so, I guess this is just too progressive to be a repeat of that? April 6th/7th, 1982 was a totally different setup. not even relevant with the one we have for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I like Box's map. Given qpf isn't much, but ratios should be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You are Not feeling this ha? I wouldn't say that. I'm not feeling huge totals, at least not down this way. I think expectations are generally inflated after what we have seen in the past 3 weeks. In a normal winter people would vs very excited about this storm. I'm excited to enjoy this storm over the long weekend. Warning snows..... With cold temps in wind. Doesn't have to be 12+ to be a good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I wouldn't say that. I'm not feeling huge totals, at least not down this way. I think expectations are generally inflated after what we have seen in the past 3 weeks. In a normal winter people would vs very excited about this storm. I'm excited to enjoy this storm over the long weekend. Warning snows..... With cold temps in wind. Doesn't have to be 12+ to be a good storm Amen. Should be fun just to see how much wind howls. I think this has more wind potential than the first blizzard. We might see widespread blizzard conditions verify despite the lower snow totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Amen. Should be fun just to see how much wind howls. I think this has more wind potential than the first blizzard. We might see widespread blizzard conditions verify despite the lower snow totals... Ya but the wind potential won't be realized in SNE (during) the storm unless this cranks and gets tucked in tight. I think best winds outside the Cape will be as storm pulls away in Cold Air Advection when everyone begins to howl out of the NW. 50 gusts seem the minimum limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I wouldn't say that. I'm not feeling huge totals, at least not down this way. I think expectations are generally inflated after what we have seen in the past 3 weeks. In a normal winter people would vs very excited about this storm. I'm excited to enjoy this storm over the long weekend. Warning snows..... With cold temps in wind. Doesn't have to be 12+ to be a good storm 6" is the new dusting now. This storm will likely have some tricks up its sleeve anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know people wish for monster snow totals, but this was never really meant for that in SNE Bitter cold Howling winds Blowing snow Enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I like where I sit for this one. I just hope to catch one of those mega bands on the backside, coming out of the GOM. The GFS has a 6 hour pocket where I'd get blasted up here in Newburyport. It looks pretty safe for me to expect 8-10" and anything above that would be gravy. I'll take a wind whipped fresh blast. Even driving around today along 1A through Essex the open fields are causing some drifting on road with existing snow. It looks like the arctic circle out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I like where I sit for this one. I just hope to catch one of those mega bands on the backside, coming out of the GOM. The GFS has a 6 hour pocket where I'd get blasted up here in Newburyport. It looks pretty safe for me to expect 8-10" and anything above that would be gravy. I'll take a wind whipped fresh blast. Even driving around today along 1A through Essex the open fields are causing some drifting on road with existing snow. It looks like the arctic circle out there! I'd be somewhat surprised if you didn't get 10" up in Essex county. There's definitely some higher potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I could see Newburyport grabbing 18"-22" Not sure I would forecast that but it is reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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