ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Time to ditch tight pants wearing D bags and go with all American Wranglers? Lol..I definitely don't feel comfortable forecasting like 5-8" of snow with the maps the way they look. But higher end has some confidence shakers too...it's not an easy storm. My gut still says it will end up better than some of the lower output is showing. It's underneath the deformed divergence and deepening MLL/ULLs where you get big busts in the positive direction...dryslots punching in from the SW is where you get negative busts...we have the former in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 nice analysis http://ryanhanrahan.com/2015/02/13/friday-update/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah you need the good inflow which requires the mid levels closing off and intensifying quick. It's going to take a bit more work with a cold atmosphere to get moisture transport wrapped around significantly. The GFS does this, but there is also strong lower level convergence as the low wraps back in. I am out and can't see euro, but my guess is that it does not do the same. On the other hand, it will not take much moisture to throw snow down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lol..I definitely don't feel comfortable forecasting like 5-8" of snow with the maps the way they look. But higher end has some confidence shakers too...it's not an easy storm. My gut still says it will end up better than some of the lower output is showing. It's underneath the deformed divergence and deepening MLL/ULLs where you get big busts in the positive direction...dryslots punching in from the SW is where you get negative busts...we have the former in this setup. I agree, but I'll have to take a look to see why it's sort of meh as you guys describe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I guess it comes down to real meteorology knowledge here. Models aren't holding our hands on this one. I think sometimes you have to take a risk. The set-up in this storm is impossible to ignore, (from what I have read). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yea, I said "relatively" dissapointing. Not a disaster at all. Good event. Euro pretty much puts us on the edge of some good banding. We'll take it. Especially since there seems to be a majority consensus that it is underdone. Good backside fronto signal I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 whats funny is if the Euro showed 2" of qpf, some people would be buying it hook, line, and sinker. The gfs is basically on its own showing big totals over a decent area.... tough to buy a model pretty much on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Smh 70" in like 3 weeks, and people are complaining ? Either way I think this has far more potential but as Zeus stated there isn't much time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Youre better than this Jerry. Come on. Look at the setup. If you didnt see qpf you'd be balls out But I do see qpf from our most reliable guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is going to be a nowcast storm if I've ever seen one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 one thing about this winter is that everything has outperformed guidance mostly, so hopefully this one follows that trend, dynamic system for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 But I do see qpf from our most reliable guidance. Can't really ignore it. I really want to see one of the hires models like the RGEM or NAM go gangbusters with some of this mesoscale banding in SNE - but there's not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Could someone comment on how Maine did on the Euro? I heard Downeast get's destroyed. I know Southern New England isn't super happy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'll ask one more time then I'll give up. Can anyone give me some qpf for areas north of Mass? Where does .50" line run? East of NH? With this new wrench and not being able to see the Euro have no idea what it shows up this way. THANKS so much in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just looking at this setup, we'd be thinking this is a mixed good to great (but not terrific) setup for something big. If this thing overperforms, looking back the surprise won't be that this setup gave us another nice storm, it will be that the models were mainly underdoing it, which won't be that much of a surprise at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 one thing about this winter is that everything has outperformed guidance mostly, so hopefully this one follows that trend, dynamic system for sure. That is what I've been thinking about, but this is a tough, tough call. Things have trended better, but things have also bumped ne a lot, too....NYC remembers more than we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I guess it comes down to real meteorology knowledge here. Models aren't holding our hands on this one. I think sometimes you have to take a risk. The set-up in this storm is impossible to ignore, (from what I have read). I was thinking the same thing. This has all the ingredients and in the right positions to be a really impressive storm. One model is showing just that. The others aren't. What does your MET knowledge tell you when you see the mid levels where they are, with the power that this has? A tough call for sure. The anomalous set up may be giving the Non GFS models fits right now? Could the GFS be seeing this for what it is....a very powerful ULL, that is positioned perfectly for SNE, and develops like it should, and thus it shows the results that it should? Might be. If the GFS holds it's ground at 18z, and doesn't cave at all, that would be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That is what I've been thinking about, but this is a tough, tough call. Things have trended better, but things have also bumped ne a lot, too....NYC remembers more than we do. Dual low structure will make me wary from now into the future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'll ask one more time then I'll give up. Can anyone give me some qpf for areas north of Mass? Where does .50" line run? East of NH? With this new wrench and not being able to see the Euro have no idea what it shows up this way. THANKS so much in advance. Maine gets demolished but you don't get much. .5 line is 30 miles west of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Too many red flags to go higher than 4-8 across Connecticut, and even that may be a little aggressive. 2-5 or 3-6 totals cannot be completely discounted unless we see the storm become more organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thinkin about 2-5" for central/west CT with 3-7" in their far eastern counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gene I looked again and I think you are tickling the 0.5. Old phone and viewer so don't hold me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Maue tosses @RyanMaue: @ChrisDeVitoWX @ryanhanrahan time to move to the mesoscale models anyway -- i'm not expecting EC to nail banding (or GFS either) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Maue tosses @RyanMaue: @ChrisDeVitoWX @ryanhanrahan time to move to the mesoscale models anyway -- i'm not expecting EC to nail banding (or GFS either) Great. How do the NAM and RGEM look in your backyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gene I looked again and I think you are tickling the 0.5. Old phone and viewer so don't hold me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Great. How do the NAM and RGEM look in your backyard? Track wise they both look great. I'm expecting more than 6 inches and possibly as much as 12 if banding is nearby..Could care less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Great. How do the NAM and RGEM look in your backyard? Ryan, what would your call be for ne MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Can't really ignore it. I really want to see one of the hires models like the RGEM or NAM go gangbusters with some of this mesoscale banding in SNE - but there's not much. banding should start to show up in the next set of meso models right? It seems to start showing up about 24/36 hrs.. at least lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ryan, what would your call be for ne MA? 8-12 for NE Mass? Something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This was our first call from last night, think it's pretty good as of right now although we may have to tick down parts of the 4-8 to 3-6 in the morning depending on what the 18z and 0z runs look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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