Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 People that think they are getting 5 could get 15..People thinking they are getting 12 could get 6..The one danger is don't base a forecast off of qpf. We have never seen an ULL this strong take this path..surprises galore are going to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I could see Newburyport grabbing 18"-22" Not sure I would forecast that but it is reasonableme too. That area is gonna do really well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Should the Ensembles be used still? The 12z GEFS are like giving a good probability of over 0.5" qpf west of 91 and even over 50% for 0.75"+ qpf. This has increased since 0z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 People that think they are getting 5 could get 15..People thinking they are getting 12 could get 6..The one danger is don't base a forecast off of qpf. We have never seen an ULL this strong take this path..surprises galore are going to occur lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 People that think they are getting 5 could get 15..People thinking they are getting 12 could get 6..The one danger is don't base a forecast off of qpf. We have never seen an ULL this strong take this path..surprises galore are going to occur Lower heights don't equal strength exactly. Just like you can have more impacts from a 985 low vs 972 or something like that. It's all relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 WBZ still honking 12"+ for BOS hmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 lol "This has never happened before, so anything is on the table, including things I want despite them not being depicted by any of the guidance." Science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 WBZ still honking 12"+ for BOS hmmmmmmm Well, consider the current set of curcumstances in Boston...would you rathe rbust high, or low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 12z GEFS even increased the strength of the H5 low compared to the Op run. The Op run is one of the weakest in terms of closed H5 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
photovision Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How will this storm influence the potential of the storm for the middle of next week? (if at all) And would it depend on how strong or weak the Sat/Sun storm pans out to be? Thanks from a rookie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z BTV WRF likes Salisbury Beach to Portland Maine area. Doesn't look that impressive on Mid coast Maine on BTV WRF with the caveat that I can't see more than 100 miles ENE of Portland. Has nice CF for 3-4 hours extreme NE mass/ SE NH/ SW corner of Maine for a few hours 8-11pm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well, consider the current set of curcumstances in Boston...would you rathe rbust high, or low? I don't think there's realistic public backlash for either at this point... the uninformed consumer of local media weather forecasts is just going to say "Oh great. More snow." because in his or her mind, it's beyond the point of measurements being relevant. No where to put it means it doesn't matter terribly much just what falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well, consider the current set of curcumstances in Boston...would you rathe rbust high, or low? Tru dat. "Sorry folks, snow's cancelled...the moose out front should have told you" I would rather they show what the thinking is, and not try to make people feel warm and tingly. But maybe that is what they are thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think there's realistic public backlash for either at this point... the uninformed consumer of local media weather forecasts is just going to say "Oh great. More snow." because in his or her mind, it's beyond the point of measurements being relevant. No where to put it means it doesn't matter terribly much just what falls. Touche. Unless it really went bonkers, agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 People that think they are getting 5 could get 15..People thinking they are getting 12 could get 6..The one danger is don't base a forecast off of qpf. We have never seen an ULL this strong take this path..surprises galore are going to occur As you said yesterday, and to which I agree, "we are going to see things [this weekend] that we have NEVER seen before." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I like Box's map. Given qpf isn't much, but ratios should be great. I like GYX's better. P/C says 4-8 out here. ZFP offers periods of 1-3/additional moderate/additional light. Sounds like 4-8 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Harv, still has 12+ east of 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 As you said yesterday, and to which I agree, "we are going to see things [this weekend] that we have NEVER seen before." Kev we'll eventually acknowledge objective guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I would be pretty impressed if the GFS somehow took this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nomar likes 12"+ sees no reason not to go with that for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 I like GYX's better. P/C says 4-8 out here. ZFP offers periods of 1-3/additional moderate/additional light. Sounds like 4-8 to me. That is how I woulld play it. Worst case scanario is .6" qpf, and event that is probably going to bring about 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I set up a forecast contest for this event. The last one was a lot of fun and the folks who played seemed to enjoy it, so hopefully we get more to join in on the fun! It'll only take you a couple of minutes, and you've got until 1201 PM on Saturday to submit. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45715-forecast-contest-214-152015-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This will be one of those storms where the snow will just fill up the driveways since there is 4-5' of snow on either side lol. Just blows right in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Touche. Unless it really went bonkers, agreed. Exactly; they would have to be all-in on thundersnow and 16"+ amounts to sound the severe rally cry, and yeah, if the Euro and at least two other models seemed in lockstep for 12-18 hours of apocalyptic Hoth, they might step up the wolf cry. But as things currently stand, dynamics looks neat, actual surface depictions look wonky, there's considerable disagreement on what sets up where despite a tight timeframe... take the general idea of the QPF, run your ratios through it and shoot for the middle with as low risk of it biting you in the ass as possible. I get the approach. If Boston doesn't get under a band and gets 5" that's pushed every which way in the existing snow canyons from the storms that came before it, it'll look like a lot of nothing happened. But it'll still come off as "oh great more snow" to a lot of folks who never really bother with the measuring stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I would be pretty impressed if the GFS somehow took this. How do you decide what to go with at this point? I guess it makes sense to wait until 0z Not sure about a 50/50 blend here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If I could get 6 inches of snow and 40-50mph gusts, I would sign up right now. This is going to be something to just sit back and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And has been mentioned a bunch of times, 6" could feel like 12" with the drifting and blowing and cold. Won't make a huge difference for sensible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How do you decide what to go with at this point? I guess it makes sense to wait until 0z Not sure about a 50/50 blend here Gut. Obviously there is time, but snowfall ranges FTW too. They are made for times like these. Just have to convey uncertainty. I honestly have no idea what would happen if we got another foot. My wife is already losing it after the commute nightmare that has been the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 8-12 still seem like a good call for BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gut. Obviously there is time, but snowfall ranges FTW too. They are made for times like these. Just have to convey uncertainty. I honestly have no idea what would happen if we got another foot. My wife is already losing it after the commute nightmare that has been the last few days. This is a storm where you pull out the ol' 8-16" range from the 1990s...and don't apologize for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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