Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Well guys and gals. Pay attention to the dewpoints in the Carolina's. Most locales in SC are single digits to single digits below zero. KCHS at noon has dropped to 1 with 37 current temp. I'm telling you diabatic processes are going to wreck model temp outputs substantially and force more adjustments on low placement. wpc's graph about 3 this am was quite interesting even for the Carolina's on Wednesday as well. I know that will change again and so will modeling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ukmet is a very good model, esp at h5. However it's not as hi res as the euro or para, even nam. So it misses the microclimate factors dealing with toppgraphy, wedges, downs loping etc. Feel free to correct me. But like the globals they all get you to the game, but you have to start getting on the cam and hi res models at some point tonight in order to work out the back yard details.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

More on the video soon, but here is my thoughts on paper

2z4xqwm.jpg

 

Thanks for posting Chris.  I think this is an extremely logical map.  The eastern sections of the I-20 corridor are sitting in the low 30s right now with dewpoints below 0.  It will be hard pressed to move that cold air out of the way quickly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well guys and gals. Pay attention to the dewpoints in the Carolina's. Most locales in SC are single digits to single digits below zero. KCHS at noon has dropped to 1 with 37 current temp. I'm telling you diabatic processes are going to wreck model temp outputs substantially and force more adjustments on low placement. wpc's graph about 3 this am was quite interesting even for the Carolina's on Wednesday as well. I know that will change again and so will modeling.

I agree with the bolded...mby sits at 33 with a dp of -5 with full sun. Impressive   :sun:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well guys and gals. Pay attention to the dewpoints in the Carolina's. Most locales in SC are single digits to single digits below zero. KCHS at noon has dropped to 1 with 37 current temp. I'm telling you diabatic processes are going to wreck model temp outputs substantially and force more adjustments on low placement. wpc's graph about 3 this am was quite interesting even for the Carolina's on Wednesday as well. I know that will change again and so will modeling.

 

Your right, the DP is 1 at Hatteras with a temp in the mid 20's that's pretty insane, the DP at Wilmington is -5......and its not rebounding at all if anything its holding strong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well guys and gals. Pay attention to the dewpoints in the Carolina's. Most locales in SC are single digits to single digits below zero. KCHS at noon has dropped to 1 with 37 current temp. I'm telling you diabatic processes are going to wreck model temp outputs substantially and force more adjustments on low placement. wpc's graph about 3 this am was quite interesting even for the Carolina's on Wednesday as well. I know that will change again and so will modeling.

I was wondering about that. FAY at 1 p.m. is 30 with DP of -9. I anticipate things changing as we get closer. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well guys and gals. Pay attention to the dewpoints in the Carolina's. Most locales in SC are single digits to single digits below zero. KCHS at noon has dropped to 1 with 37 current temp. I'm telling you diabatic processes are going to wreck model temp outputs substantially and force more adjustments on low placement. wpc's graph about 3 this am was quite interesting even for the Carolina's on Wednesday as well. I know that will change again and so will modeling.

You think the models can't handle dynamic processes and evaporative cooling?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Courtesy of Brad Panovich:

2ahhc37.png

Based on the latest Euro, GFS, and NAM, the bigger amounts might need to shift further north again, well into Virginia. South of I-40 in NC is a dusting to an inch. North of I-40, 1-3". The best snows will be across KY, VA, and WV.

Bigger story that's unfolding is a damaging ice storm for most of NC.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Isn't it more about how cold the air is....so it would force the low further south?...and it would be harder to breakdown the cold air.

Yeah you're definitely right. I was thinking about it more from a wet bulb standpoint. Wet bulbs won't be in the teens down toward Fayetteville when the precip starts, will they? That seems extreme.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can anyone provide a little more euro information with regards to precip amounts, track of the low, and temperatures? It would be great if you could compare this run to the 0z and also to the other 12z modeling. I'm on model overload!

 

Honestly, it's probably time to be looking more at the NAM/RGEM and then to the RAP tonight to see how everything is unfolding. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_central+/24h/

 

There is a second low that has formed west of the pacific/baja low.

 

What does a non amateur or amateur with good access to and understanding of models think?  :) 

 

my very vague amateur thoughts:

There are some chances it could change the speed or direction of the system or vice versa that if it does not keep sinking south, follow behind or otherwise create a similar setup if it strengthens much more. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...