Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I saw 3" of sleet last March, so absolutely.

 

HKY, do you think some of those 1" QPF totals some of the modeling were spitting out might verify?

Just depends on if you find yourself in one of the right band later tonight. I don't see why someone in central NC can't get over 1 inch qpf from this. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WRAL has .10 to .25 of freezing rain for here now. Looks like mostly sleet.

Wral is forecastin on the low end for ice compare to the other stations as well as the NWS. The higher amounts they have are quite south compared to the other staions/mets "south". People even commented that others were forecasting more. Most are saying .25-.50 +. The more near hwy 64. I'm in nw raleigh about 10 miles n of the 64 line.

Just not buying wral with this storm. If you look at the map the NWS just put out, they have .05-.10 PER HOUR once the main system moves in. We have not entered the main one yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea, I have a davis station right on the shores of lake Hartwell which i would consider the middle of the "Lakelands", and it's 29.1 there right now with no signs of rising....

 

 

http://www.weatherlink.com/user/musserfarm/index.php?view=summary&headers=1

 

Yea, and the HRRR guidance simply doesn't support their reasoning as northeasterly flow remains entrenched over the upstate. In fact its still below freezing pretty much everywhere in the upstate at 1200 UTC tomorrow with most locations receiving between .75 to 1.25" QPF during the next 15 hours. 

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_2d_flt.php

 

4vxHNFl.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From what I've read on the forum lately it sounds like the HRRR and RAP are pretty bad with temperatures. If so, then why haven't they been upgraded to address these issues? I mean, if they can't get the temperatures right it seems like their usefulness during a winter storm would be pretty limited.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From what I've read on the forum lately it sounds like the HRRR and RAP are pretty bad with temperatures. If so, then why haven't they been upgraded to address these issues? I mean, if they can't get the temperatures right it seems like their usefulness during a winter storm would be pretty limited.

I think the HRRR has been the only model to correctly handle the temperature profiles

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest GSP disco. Says it all:

 

AS OF 7 PM...THE ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO COOPERATE WITH THE FCST. IN  
SPITE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY...SFC TEMPS REMAIN BELOW  
FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. DEWPTS CONTINUE TO CREEP  
UPWARD...BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH. WET BULB EFFECTS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR  
BELOW 32F FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE  
GEORGIA WHILE THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL. THAT MEANS ICE WILL  
CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE...MORE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WILL UPGRADE  
THE OLD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WARNING. WILL NOT GO ICE STORM  
WARNING BECAUSE THE PRECIP KEEPS CHANGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN  
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. WILL ALSO EXPAND THIS WARNING TO MOST OF  
THE REST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA BASED ON TEMPS AND RADAR TRENDS...AND  
TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING WARNING. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR  
THE REST OF THE LAKELANDS WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT. BY  
THEN... TEMPS SHOULD START RISING FROM THE S.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest GSP disco. Says it all:

 

AS OF 7 PM...THE ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO COOPERATE WITH THE FCST. IN  

SPITE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY...SFC TEMPS REMAIN BELOW  

FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. DEWPTS CONTINUE TO CREEP  

UPWARD...BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH. WET BULB EFFECTS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR  

BELOW 32F FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE  

GEORGIA WHILE THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL. THAT MEANS ICE WILL  

CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE...MORE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WILL UPGRADE  

THE OLD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WARNING. WILL NOT GO ICE STORM  

WARNING BECAUSE THE PRECIP KEEPS CHANGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN  

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. WILL ALSO EXPAND THIS WARNING TO MOST OF  

THE REST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA BASED ON TEMPS AND RADAR TRENDS...AND  

TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING WARNING. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR  

THE REST OF THE LAKELANDS WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT. BY  

THEN... TEMPS SHOULD START RISING FROM THE S.  

And the updated map. Ouch.

 

QISU84Ng.1424134109.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest GSP disco. Says it all:

 

AS OF 7 PM...THE ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO COOPERATE WITH THE FCST. IN  

SPITE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY...SFC TEMPS REMAIN BELOW  

FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. DEWPTS CONTINUE TO CREEP  

UPWARD...BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH. WET BULB EFFECTS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR  

BELOW 32F FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE  

GEORGIA WHILE THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL. THAT MEANS ICE WILL  

CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE...MORE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WILL UPGRADE  

THE OLD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WARNING. WILL NOT GO ICE STORM  

WARNING BECAUSE THE PRECIP KEEPS CHANGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN  

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. WILL ALSO EXPAND THIS WARNING TO MOST OF  

THE REST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA BASED ON TEMPS AND RADAR TRENDS...AND  

TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING WARNING. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR  

THE REST OF THE LAKELANDS WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT. BY  

THEN... TEMPS SHOULD START RISING FROM THE S.  

 

Well the HRRR has been handling this well in the near term so again not sure what they were looking at that suggested otherwise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...