HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Why do we look at models now for totals? Can't we look at radar and ground reports? Yes, the radar is pretty impressive. I would favor the higher end amounts we've seen over the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think I see the Big Dipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I have 2 inches of snow on the ground. Is it possible that I see 2 inches of solid sleet? The radar looks amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I have 2 inches of snow on the ground. Is it possible that I see 2 inches of solid sleet? The radar looks amazing. I saw 3" of sleet last March, so absolutely. HKY, do you think some of those 1" QPF totals some of the modeling were spitting out might verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarvelMountain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Half hour of snow from 2 to 2:30, ten minutes of freezing rain, then nothing but sleet. 26 degrees. Hoping for the best. Of course, I'll take the sleet any day to the freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I saw 3" of sleet last March, so absolutely. HKY, do you think some of those 1" QPF totals some of the modeling were spitting out might verify? Insane. Just think how golden we would be if we didn't have that damned warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Been sleeting hard since around 4:30. Really starting to pile up now. I'm hoping it switches back to snow but I doubt it happens. Any winter weather is better than no winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I saw 3" of sleet last March, so absolutely. HKY, do you think some of those 1" QPF totals some of the modeling were spitting out might verify? I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I saw 3" of sleet last March, so absolutely. HKY, do you think some of those 1" QPF totals some of the modeling were spitting out might verify? Just depends on if you find yourself in one of the right band later tonight. I don't see why someone in central NC can't get over 1 inch qpf from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 WRAL has .10 to .25 of freezing rain for here now. Looks like mostly sleet. Wral is forecastin on the low end for ice compare to the other stations as well as the NWS. The higher amounts they have are quite south compared to the other staions/mets "south". People even commented that others were forecasting more. Most are saying .25-.50 +. The more near hwy 64. I'm in nw raleigh about 10 miles n of the 64 line. Just not buying wral with this storm. If you look at the map the NWS just put out, they have .05-.10 PER HOUR once the main system moves in. We have not entered the main one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'd like to see their reasoning for this statement... me too! Heck, at this point, I don't know how much of a warm surge I see down in MID GA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This may be one of the most bizarre things I've ever read. It's wilkesboro dude!! It has something to do with the atmosphere healing at night.... Anyway, 2.5" of snow and dumping in Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The radar is impressive..I like looking at the hi-res one from NOAA... http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php that radar is gnarly. Looks like central NC is in for a serious sleet event. Wonder if we can rival last years pingermaggedon? Thoughts James, NCWX, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Its not gonna be a instantly cutoff, it will dwindle slowly. not trying to discredit the system. Ahhh no http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states-regional/nc/charlotte/animated?MR=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Precip will rapidly taper off now that the sun is down. This storm isn't being fueled by instability from the heat of the day. Come on, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 My gosh, even this weather can't stop the trolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yea, I have a davis station right on the shores of lake Hartwell which i would consider the middle of the "Lakelands", and it's 29.1 there right now with no signs of rising.... http://www.weatherlink.com/user/musserfarm/index.php?view=summary&headers=1 Yea, and the HRRR guidance simply doesn't support their reasoning as northeasterly flow remains entrenched over the upstate. In fact its still below freezing pretty much everywhere in the upstate at 1200 UTC tomorrow with most locations receiving between .75 to 1.25" QPF during the next 15 hours. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_2d_flt.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 the coldest high in Charlotte history is 14. The high predicted by the 18z GFS on Thursday is 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 From what I've read on the forum lately it sounds like the HRRR and RAP are pretty bad with temperatures. If so, then why haven't they been upgraded to address these issues? I mean, if they can't get the temperatures right it seems like their usefulness during a winter storm would be pretty limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 RAH says more precip on the way after this lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 From what I've read on the forum lately it sounds like the HRRR and RAP are pretty bad with temperatures. If so, then why haven't they been upgraded to address these issues? I mean, if they can't get the temperatures right it seems like their usefulness during a winter storm would be pretty limited. I think the HRRR has been the only model to correctly handle the temperature profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 RAH says more precip on the way after this lull.so does the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Latest GSP disco. Says it all: AS OF 7 PM...THE ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO COOPERATE WITH THE FCST. IN SPITE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY...SFC TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. DEWPTS CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD...BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH. WET BULB EFFECTS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW 32F FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA WHILE THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL. THAT MEANS ICE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE...MORE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WILL UPGRADE THE OLD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WARNING. WILL NOT GO ICE STORM WARNING BECAUSE THE PRECIP KEEPS CHANGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. WILL ALSO EXPAND THIS WARNING TO MOST OF THE REST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA BASED ON TEMPS AND RADAR TRENDS...AND TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING WARNING. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE LAKELANDS WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT. BY THEN... TEMPS SHOULD START RISING FROM THE S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 1006 slp central Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 That low is not going to plow into that wedge either, funny how the warm air advection is a lot less than models were saying it was going to be. hence, why I was worried about North East Georgia getting more ice than forecasted. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Latest GSP disco. Says it all: AS OF 7 PM...THE ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO COOPERATE WITH THE FCST. IN SPITE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY...SFC TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. DEWPTS CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD...BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH. WET BULB EFFECTS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW 32F FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA WHILE THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL. THAT MEANS ICE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE...MORE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WILL UPGRADE THE OLD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WARNING. WILL NOT GO ICE STORM WARNING BECAUSE THE PRECIP KEEPS CHANGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. WILL ALSO EXPAND THIS WARNING TO MOST OF THE REST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA BASED ON TEMPS AND RADAR TRENDS...AND TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING WARNING. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE LAKELANDS WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT. BY THEN... TEMPS SHOULD START RISING FROM THE S. And the updated map. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Latest GSP disco. Says it all: AS OF 7 PM...THE ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO COOPERATE WITH THE FCST. IN SPITE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY...SFC TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. DEWPTS CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD...BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH. WET BULB EFFECTS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW 32F FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA WHILE THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL. THAT MEANS ICE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE...MORE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WILL UPGRADE THE OLD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WARNING. WILL NOT GO ICE STORM WARNING BECAUSE THE PRECIP KEEPS CHANGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. WILL ALSO EXPAND THIS WARNING TO MOST OF THE REST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA BASED ON TEMPS AND RADAR TRENDS...AND TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING WARNING. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE LAKELANDS WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT. BY THEN... TEMPS SHOULD START RISING FROM THE S. Well the HRRR has been handling this well in the near term so again not sure what they were looking at that suggested otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I think I see the Big Dipper. lol Probably not. It would be to your north - where all the precip is. Could be Orion thogh, thats to your south and east and up high. Its all going to fill in soon though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 And the updated map. Ouch. that is a huge jump up from the previous map totals, more than double or even tripled in some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 lol Probably not. It would be to your north - where all the precip is. Could be Orion thogh, thats to your south and east and up high. Its all going to fill in soon though! ] Lol Just checked outside again. Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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