Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not for this thread, but Sunday seems like it will be modeled better on this run. Does that threat have it's own thread yet? What should we name this one? Sunday Snowy Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 joe cioffi does some nice analysis. I read his fb page. he was saying yesterday that he though Thursday would back off a bit and Sunday might get bigger. That would seem to fit what has been happening lately. The GFS perhaps is following that script? Sunday no guarantee but there is time to see it develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Does that threat have it's own thread yet? What should we name this one? Sunday Snowy Sunday? Lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Lame. Your mother wears combat boots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I just want one of these last two to work out. I think most do, so I'm mot sure why I'm singled out. lol I kid, one of the 3 in the next two weeks will hit just not this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 oh wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Thread kicked off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah keep this thread about 2/12-13...discuss the Sunday threat in the other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45675-super-snow-sunday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 As long as no one expects more from this then a refresher its fine last i checked a low moving NE over 40/66 is not good for a moderate snow fall anywhere speak for yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well that was fun while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We'll see how rest of suite looks, but if the trends are the same.. I'll lower to 2-4 regionwide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We'll see how rest of suite looks, but if the trends are the same.. I'll lower to 2-4 regionwide Phew...you still owe me from yesterday, I got 4". A Bucket of friend chicken will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 I don't really see this system having a tremendous amount of influence on the weekend potential. I think that potential is more aligned with how the PAC ridge continues to develop in the short-term between the end of the week moving into the weekend and that will ultimately affect the heights down stream and determine where exactly the trough axis is located. I guess this system could screw with the heights over the western Atlantic, however, there is plenty of time between this departure and the weekend potential for the pattern across the western Atlantic to "re-configure" with the PAC ridge playing a dominant factor in the overall pattern I tend to agree with this statement (bold) above... These impulses are monsters... They are so powerful, they really can overcome some of the typical limitations due to deconstructive wave interference/spacing contentions. In an exotic sense, think of them like LP supercells ... as opposed to rain-wrappers (HPs).. There will be two important storms over the next 7 to 8 days... That's about as close to definite as we can get. The questions are, for whom and what will those impacts be? Firstly, should we miss the first event, folks should be aware not to confuse that with impugning the efforts of monitoring, or even forecasting. This pattern, a historic one and for the most part a 'climate event', is already in the books; the two next systems in the series are merely just additional chapters in that story ... as yet to be written in truth. In other words, there's no take away if you don't get additional snow -- Just my two -pennies on the philosophy of things ... That said, the last few cycles of the NAM are clawing and scraping at least excuse imaginable to pull this/edge it east. And, I still think that looks odd relative to the whole of the synoptic evolution across North America. The flow is too stretched.. The ridge in the west remains anchored during the troughs greatest nadir; swinging it E boldly into the Atlantic is anomalous. Not impossible .. just seems less likely. I would still be vigil from mid LI to eastern Ma/RI and the Cape on this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I don't really see this system having a tremendous amount of influence on the weekend potential. I think that potential is more aligned with how the PAC ridge continues to develop in the short-term between the end of the week moving into the weekend and that will ultimately affect the heights down stream and determine where exactly the trough axis is located. I guess this system could screw with the heights over the western Atlantic, however, there is plenty of time between this departure and the weekend potential for the pattern across the western Atlantic to "re-configure" with the PAC ridge playing a dominant factor in the overall pattern pretty much I posted last nite how at 0z sat to 12z Saturday the top of the ridge is really flattened and that is hurting our chances for Sunday more so than any spacing concerns...unless that changes I see wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS says NO to both storms. Not good. Our run is probably over and it would be ok as I'm currently writing and article on how this is in the Top 5 Greatest Winter Stretches along with 1920, 1948, 1969, and 1978. When you get talked about with those BAD Bad Boys, no complaining is allowed. Just the fact that we Could have gone for #1. You only get this chance twice in a lifetime or so so that's the very sad part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well, one is better than none I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Our run is probably over That would make sense, if it wasn't consistently keying in on Tuesday/Wednesday as the next significant snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Figure we will not see a hit here in Central Mass on Thursday (C-2?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Figure we will not see a hit here in Central Mass on Thursday (C-2?) Doesn't seem likely to be more than C-2 at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Total qpf for the queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 MAV snow number for BOS is 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Actually will go with a coating to 2" down here. Wide range but under an inch seems most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 These near misses are more typically misses but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Near misses, those are hits for me, Cape Cod gets 3-6" both storms, so keep the Out to Sea or misses talk to yourselves and continue to talk about the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Near misses, those are hits for me, Cape Cod gets 3-6" both storms, so keep the Out to Sea or misses talk to yourselves and continue to talk about the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Near misses, those are hits for me, Cape Cod gets 3-6" both storms, so keep the Out to Sea or misses talk to yourselves and continue to talk about the storm. You still want both of those storms to come a lot closer, even for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We'll keep it to ourselves James. Unfortunately there's 1800 of us and 1 of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not sure what they are seeing??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not sure what they are seeing??? yesterday's guidance also this one is not in the books yet, despite 12z trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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