Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Running ratio is 18-1 though so hopefully we can beef up the invt and throw back a little more precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Running ratio is 18-1 though so hopefully we can beef up the invt and throw back a little more precipGlad to see someone else sees what I'm looking at. I offer up science and get called weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Glad to see someone else sees what I'm looking at. I offer up science and get called weenie Forecasting based on ratios 60-72 hours out is not a very good way to operate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Forecasting based on ratios 60-72 hours out is not a very good way to operate...I offered 3 reasons I was basing my thoughts on. All scientific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Forecasting based on ratios 60-72 hours out is not a very good way to operate... Just reporting bufkit output off a MODEL forecast although you have to admit as a trained Meteorologist that with those soundings thats a high ratio profile. Speaking of that what was the w/e yesterday for Boston, ratios seemed very high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I offered 3 reasons I was basing my thoughts on. All scientific Well lets review them: #1..."plenty of forcing and lift even without a coastal"....huh? I see extremely marginal lift/forcing. In fact, the bombing coastal to the east starts robbing us of lift as time goes on. #2..."There's an inverted trough signature"....is much better for SE MA. #3 "18 to 1 or 20 to 1 ratios".....is a big assumption that can easily be wrong at this lead time. "Counting" on 20 to 1 ratios to get you to your forecast at 60 hours out is dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Still a bit of time for changes.... Early call would be probably high end advisory for NE mass Boston providence and southeast 3-6.... With 1-3, 2-4 west of that. The cape actually has the highest chance at something more substantial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Why are we talking about weekend storm in this Why are we talking about weekend storm in this thread? Kevin, start rooting for the weekend storm because this one aint happening. And if it tries, it could wind up screwing up the weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Even with the 12z NAM..if development occurs like 6-8 hours quicker (which is relatively reasonable...probably much more reasonable than 6-8 hours later than what's modeled) that would be a decent difference for at least into eastern CT with getting more solid advisory type snows and perhaps even higher end advisory to low end warning for at leas the Cape. Just have to see how the models handle the PAC ridge and subsequent trough and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yea but the changes need to come quickly starting with gfs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 LOL Kevin. C'mon. It's probably advisory for some..that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Whats interesting is that without a coastal this is a decent windex type Arctic blast, at the very least expect some whiteout squalls everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Even with the 12z NAM..if development occurs like 6-8 hours quicker (which is relatively reasonable...probably much more reasonable than 6-8 hours later than what's modeled) that would be a decent difference for at least into eastern CT with getting more solid advisory type snows and perhaps even higher end advisory to low end warning for at leas the Cape. Just have to see how the models handle the PAC ridge and subsequent trough and go from there. 6 hours sooner and most of SNE would see solid snowfall..like 4"+...but I'm skeptical it happens given the most recent trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Just reporting bufkit output off a MODEL forecast although you have to admit as a trained Meteorologist that with those soundings thats a high ratio profile. Speaking of that what was the w/e yesterday for Boston, ratios seemed very high I agree the ratios could be high...but I just would count on them being high yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I don't really see this system having a tremendous amount of influence on the weekend potential. I think that potential is more aligned with how the PAC ridge continues to develop in the short-term between the end of the week moving into the weekend and that will ultimately affect the heights down stream and determine where exactly the trough axis is located. I guess this system could screw with the heights over the western Atlantic, however, there is plenty of time between this departure and the weekend potential for the pattern across the western Atlantic to "re-configure" with the PAC ridge playing a dominant factor in the overall pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We all got excited with one 18z gfs run, everything else is too far east for something big. If there's going to be any changes west, we need it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 6 hours sooner and most of SNE would see solid snowfall..like 4"+...but I'm skeptical it happens given the most recent trends. Can't disagree there...at this point in time you would like to start seeing some positive trends develop and unfold. I feel like clipper systems in these types of pattern can be very tricky and sometimes models don't get a good handle until we're within 24-hours. One clipper that comes to mind, although I think the pattern may have been different was Dec 31st...2008 maybe? or 2009? But I don't recall that one looked impressive, or that impressive until within the 24-hour mark and RI and portions of MA got hit pretty good. On the other side though, we have seen clippers look good this far out and as we got closer crap out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This one is starting to bore me to tears. Once Steve starts focusing on WINDEX, and Kev goes ratios...it's time to significantly temper enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Lt to mod event possibly for SE areas other then that this looks meh, Just don't see this one cranking up in time to effect the region, 12z GFS looks like it will be east of 06z as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This one is starting to bore me to tears. Once Steve starts focusing on WINDEX, and Kev goes ratios...it's time to significantly temper enthusiasm. I wrote this off yesterday except for the cape but I could see a 2-4 down here and east, I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 When I saw how far off the grid this system was last night still.....and knowing the Euro will be superior in ingest in those situations....my optimism went way down. It's a dead ratter, I buy the NAM this will mostly be a miss and I would be surprised to get more than a few inches down here, and not surprised if it's under an inch. Next. Isn't the system I thought it was. This is the second time on a Thursday this has fooled you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nothing wrong with a refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nothing wrong with a refresher. Nope, Ray thinks 12 inchers will be the norm, I see it in his eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 As long as no one expects more from this then a refresher its fine last i checked a low moving NE over 40/66 is not good for a moderate snow fall anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Stack up some more there Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS is a slight bit east of 06z. Looks like 1-2" for most...maybe advisory far SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS is a slight bit east of 06z. Looks like 1-2" for most...maybe advisory far SE areas. But with ratios it's 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 But with ratios it's 3-5. lol, You forgot the lollis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nope, Ray thinks 12 inchers will be the norm, I see it in his eyes. I just want one of these last two to work out. I think most do, so I'm mot sure why I'm singled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I just want one of these last two to work out. I think most do, so I'm mot sure why I'm singled out. Not for this thread, but Sunday seems like it will be modeled better on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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