Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I certainly don't like the way our Western ridge starts flattening out post hr 96 .....by 114 it's flat as a Tim Wakefield FastballWhy are you commenting on hours after the storm has passed our latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Why are you commenting on hours after the storm has passed our latitude?he was responding to my post about glancing blow then big dog Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 he was responding to my post about glancing blow then big dog Monday oh, well try and keep this about thur/ fri. Plenty of time to dissect that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Bottom line is nis' is right....we're 12 or 18 hours away from better sampling of that s/w. It's pretty far off the grid right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Cmc about the same as gfs tonight. Low end warning event for many. Quick mover. I still think this hits hard. Watch the euro destroy us tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GGEM, definitely a bit east of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Cmc about the same as gfs tonight. Low end warning event for many. Quick mover. I still think this hits hard. Watch the euro destroy us tonight.I don't think this is going to be solved until Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Man, I don't know....don't see a complete whiff, but I think this one may be more moderate impacter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Man, I don't know....don't see a complete whiff, but I think this one may be more moderate impacter. Fine by me, as long as it translates to allowing the follow-up shortwave more room to amplify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Another thought about possible determining factors... and we've alluded to this in terms of having enough spacing Comparing 0z vs. 18z GFS, the lead shortwave may be influencing how progressive our storm will be. At 0z, lead shortwave remains closed for longer at H5, and this may be dampening ability of our trough to swing more negative. At 18z, the lead shortwave opens faster and our trough has more ability to pinch and close off sooner. The lead shortwave is also a little farther east at 18z than at 0z. Subtle but 0z is not far from a bigger solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 4-8" right on the coast and the cape maybe 5-10", lock it up. Looking at it more tonight it's clear that as models sniff better sampling they're agreeing on a quick hitter. Nice system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 4-8" right on the coast and the cape maybe 5-10", lock it up. Looking at it more tonight it's clear that as models sniff better sampling they're agreeing on a quick hitter. Nice system Are you looking at the 0z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 through 42h that lead interfering shortwave is more potent, closer to coast... one thing that screws the pooch on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The vortmax looks better on this...stronger and it's rounding the base a bit tighter than 12z....still prob not quite enough but I'd expect it to be an advisory event or something on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Precip. is Meehhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Are you looking at the 0z Euro? Nope,interested in hearing what it's doing but seems like there was good consensus at 0z already with the nam/ gem/ nav/ gfs all painting a similar picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looks like a 2-4/3-5 event for BOS-PVD and southeast on the Euro...maybe 4-6" for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 actually ticked a little northwest now has advisory snows into southeast MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The vortmax looks better on this...stronger and it's rounding the base a bit tighter than 12z....still prob not quite enough but I'd expect it to be an advisory event or something on this run Expect and you shall receive. Looks like a general 2-3 spot 4" for most of SNE with higher totals out on the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 sounds like were out of luck back here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looks like a 2-4/3-5 event for BOS-PVD and southeast on the Euro...maybe 4-6" for the Cape. Consensus is there now. Maybe some shift tomorrow and tomorrow njght as the systems get near Canadian ua stations but it's a nice topper. Not a blizzard, but will make another mess of things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Overall has a progressive feel, but could see that changing with a significantly more potent shortwave Man is this close As we've all echoed... gonna have to wait for 12z suite tomorrow at least to get a better sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 sounds like were out of luck back here Everyone gets something on this run...general 1-2" elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The euro and gfs both look like they have a bit of an inverted trough over much of southern New England, especially as the system works to amplify to our south. As the 850 develops enough moisture should get thrown back to where even back across CT at least a good 2-4'' type deal would be possible, especially from 91 on east. Definitely can't rule out some sort of earlier development with this...looks like as the initial low associated with the s/w moves overhead from Canada it's energy becomes transferred and we see new low development occur south of CT/RI...there is plenty of room for this to occur and happen earlier than what is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 That Euro run def dug farther south and was sharper. i don't think this is determined quite yet. One more move at 12z and it's big. As of now you'd go 3-6 for most folks.. Big fluff factor with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 How were the GEFS and EPS look? I'm envious of the eastern folks!! On the plus side, the winter has risen to a C+/B- out here after the 14" yesterday. 17.5/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm guessing from the lack of postings, the 6z GFS is similar to the 0z. Don't have the ability to look right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The ensembles of both suites were sim to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 That Euro run def dug farther south and was sharper. i don't think this is determined quite yet. One more move at 12z and it's big. As of now you'd go 3-6 for most folks.. Big fluff factor with this oneBox agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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