Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The potential is Huge with both systems...both are going to blossom into Monster Storms period. It's whether they do it in time for the area, or are OTS to our east. That's the only question here. We may very well miss both of these? I think alot of us(including myself) saw the incredible historic aspect of both of these, in the adding to our snowcover and impact to the area yesterday, but now the look and idea is for more of a glancing blow or miss with these(at least with the latest guidance). Ofcourse this could all change at noon, but that remains to be seen. The odds are tough for these to be a direct hit...which would send the are into the Biblical Realm...needless to say, that doesn't happen often to say the least!! It's certainly within the realm of possibilities that both are misses. Personally, I'm leaning for dat weekly rhythm of weak late week storm, strong early week storm. Just because. I'm drifting back toward weighing the euro as about 65-70 percent of a "consensus" for these next two chances. Thursday looks to be a grazer, but 12z could tic in either direction and sway that. Still snowing as I type this. Going to have to have Martha put more coals on the fire. Good winter. Many berries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 With the way the ridge is, I would be very surprised if both whiffed, That would take some bad luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 yes I agree. But high high potentials sometimes yield zero results, we've seen this many times here in N.E. But I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 With the way the ridge is, I would be very surprised if both whiffed, That would take some bad luck Well, the areas standing to gain the most have had extraordinary GOOD luck the last three weeks, so one would have to temper expectations with a little bit of that possibility. Both whiffing seems unlikely at this point as Thursday seems to at LEAST clip the cape up to BOS-PVD with something that may sniff plowable. If either is a full on hit, that remains to be seen. I lean Sunday. I'm biased. Woke up like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 With the way the ridge is, I would be very surprised if both whiffed, That would take some bad luck Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I don't care about verbatim solutions this far out, just the signals. Keep preaching brother, keep preaching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Thursday doesn't really have enough room to get downstream ridging optimal for a huge hit...I think the Euro probably sniffed this one out yesterday at 12z when all the others were showing double digit snowfall. I haven't seen anything since then to convince me otherwise. The spacing was always a bit problematic for this one, but not impossible. This is probably a 1-3/2-4 type event with perhaps a bit higher in far SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Just about what the 12z Nam has for totals with the bulk of the precip to the east, not that it means a whole heck of a lot but it tracks the low at the surface pretty far to the east and pretty much only gets the Cape with .25" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 sounds good if we can get the sunday system to work out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Ratios and fluff argue for regionwide 3-6. If there's one time to not focus on qpf it's this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Ratios and fluff argue for regionwide 3-6. If there's one time to not focus on qpf it's this Please stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Please stop. Can't stop! Won't stop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Can't stop! Won't stop! As you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If we can keep trending this weaker, I like our chances with sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Please stop.im dead serious. This looks like a 3-6 event. Similar to what we had last Thursday. You stick to snow growth and let me stick with met and amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 im dead serious. This looks like a 3-6 event. Similar to what we had last Thursday. You stick to snow growth and let me stick with met and amounts If the coastal doesn't come close enough, then what will give you 3-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 im dead serious. This looks like a 3-6 event. Similar to what we had last Thursday. You stick to snow growth and let me stick with met and amounts I don't really see a "fluff factor" of note for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yea, not feeling it When I saw how far off the grid this system was last night still.....and knowing the Euro will be superior in ingest in those situations....my optimism went way down. It's a dead ratter, I buy the NAM this will mostly be a miss and I would be surprised to get more than a few inches down here, and not surprised if it's under an inch. Next. Isn't the system I thought it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 im dead serious. This looks like a 3-6 event. Similar to what we had last Thursday. You stick to snow growth and let me stick with met and amounts What meteorology would argue for 3-6 right now? Last week we had that nice little fronto band to the northwest and seperate from the coastal system. We don't have that this time. You are just spouting weenie comments to get more snow. It's possible we get 3-6" but I wouldn't forecast that right now given the available information. You need the system more amplified than is currently shown to get 3-6"...at least there. The Cape is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 im dead serious. This looks like a 3-6 event. Similar to what we had last Thursday. You stick to snow growth and let me stick with met and amounts I honestly don't even know what to say to this. You just make stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 3-6'' region wide is probably stretching it. 3-6'' amounts probably more likely to be confined to perhaps RI and eastern MA...perhaps back to extreme eastern CT but that's just an if. Further west probably more along the lines of 2-4'' potential unless we see much quicker development. Just speaking in terms of potential though...not basing this as forecast amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If the coastal doesn't come close enough, then what will give you 3-6?#1 Theres plenty of forcing and lift even without a coastal.#2 There's an inverted trough signature ( not relying on that obviously) #3 looking at 18:1-20:1 ratios so even if it's .20 its 3-6 with 6 inch amounts most likely as you work east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I also don't believe there is any correlation between one being big one being small, they could both miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I've learned to accept the fact that Kevin will take the highest amount projected by any model and then beef it up a notch, sometimes it works out for him but a lot of times you have to bring it back down when you take that approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I also don't believe there is any correlation between one being big one being small, they could both miss. I think there is some correlation (i.e not 0)...but I also agree that both can definitely miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think there is some correlation (i.e not 0)...but I also agree that both can definitely miss. The interesting thing is that I see no one calling for BOTH to be big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Why are we talking about weekend storm in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nam Bufkit is 2-3.5 with GON the winner, IJD 1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I also don't believe there is any correlation between one being big one being small, they could both miss. I think there is, but they both deff can miss, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Why are we talking about weekend storm in this thread? You're right boss, my bad I started it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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