Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Noise from 0z mostly.. low passes south of DC at 72.. SW of Fredericksburg .. 850 0c near MD/PA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 compared to the runs of the NAM and GFS, that's probably a good (better) thing Don't quite understand this. The Euro was craptastic for us at 00Z, so if it's almost the same now at 12Z, I don't see how it's necessarily a good or better thing. Given the NAM's 12Z solution, just about anything might look relatively "better". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 you can see from the snow map where it's going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nothing too exciting.. but either the same or slightly better for most I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not looking at any models and just looking at the influence that the Highs dropping out of Alaska /western Canada have had on this system so far in the last 24 hours and their affect on the track of the water 24 hour water vapor loop I like our chances for still getting nailed by this storm. Especially given the fact that the models have been "off track" lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 H66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 you can see from the snow map where it's going yea, maybe post the last snow map, but none others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nothing too exciting.. but either the same or slightly better for most I think. A hair colder and a bit more in the way of front-end snow, you mean? Or you referring to the low track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 H72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm done, this just makes me sad. H78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A hair colder and a bit more in the way of front-end snow, you mean? Or you referring to the low track? Hard to say for sure on first maps but looks like the low is a bit south of last night's Euro (NW of RIC to Salisbury or so?).. so that's one of the best tracks we have there at this point. Verbatim not a ton on front end south of Md/Pa.. tries to get us a little to close. Not a bad run if you want to keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 H72 This looks GFS-like no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Heh. 6" line 15 miles to my north. 1" line 20 miles to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hard to say for sure on first maps but looks like the low is a bit south of last night's Euro (NW of RIC to Salisbury or so?).. so that's one of the best tracks we have there at this point. Verbatim not a ton on front end south of Md/Pa.. tries to get us a little to close. Not a bad run if you want to keep watching. The overhead lp pass is becoming relatively locked in. It wasn't an inspiring run imo. I didn't see much beyond noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Heh. 6" line 15 miles to my north. 1" line 20 miles to my south. IMO its still close enough to get something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hard to say for sure on first maps but looks like the low is a bit south of last night's Euro (NW of RIC to Salisbury or so?).. so that's one of the best tracks we have there at this point. Verbatim not a ton on front end south of Md/Pa.. tries to get us a little to close. Not a bad run if you want to keep watching. marginally better...probably gets me and you 1", maybe more.....Hopefully it moves south and/or moistens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There's actually some decent back-end snow, .15-.25" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The overhead lp pass is becoming relatively locked in. It wasn't an inspiring run imo. I didn't see much beyond noise. Pretty much. We're grasping at straws if we're looking for every 5 mile shift in the low center or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks almost identical to last years Superbowl storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Certainly a better run. Especially those baltimore and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There's actually a bit of good news here: while the s/w did trend a little deeper, it also got more of a nudge. The heights across Manitoba/Ontario came in lower. It's possible this begins a slight nudging. At the very least, it will prevent an UKMET solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sad 18 hours of model runs man. The Euro trys to drop 2.5 out here. I would take it in a heartbeat with the model trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 marginally better...probably gets me and you 1", maybe more.....Hopefully it moves south and/or moistens...We have a way to go but if you're near the border certainly keeps things interesting. It would almost be nicer to just say it's over around here but it's pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Certainly a better run. Especially those baltimore and north.This. It gives me around 2" on the front end and 2-3" on the back end. I would take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 More Baja involvement, more northern stream involvement, less confluence now in Canada...this can get ugly quickly. The idea was a simple s/w with some Baja moisture running into Arctic Air yesterday. Now, we are making a solid cyclone with a lot more interaction of features in the Plains. I hate these kind of -NAO blocks. Thumb ridge/transient spokes into 50-50 position attached to the MAIN PV west is a recipe for quick removal. Uuuugh They're totally bootleg...we see them every +NAO winter and they are near useless....we are much better off getting a faux western block like the one you championed before 2/12/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Guys, just be thankfull for what you got its a madhouse in the SE fourm....lol Seems like you guys have a good group here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Candian ens mean is pretty decent all thing considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yesterday on Twitter, I noticed the 850mb low track was odd but it worked on the snowier solutions. On the cold solutions, the 850mb low tracked from Ohio/WV into VA and then to the coast. Now, it is moving due east across PA. This lack of E-SE motion from more s/w amplification is basically the problem. The hope now is watching to see if the progressive flow (next wave, interaction with Baja etc.) can prevent the current deeper solutions. A slightly less amplified s/w will not resist the Canadian flow, and the mid level circulations will move along with the ride, i.e. ESE instead of E. Also, I think the cold high has slowed. Today was supposed to be low to mid 30's and dropping by noon, instead it is 40ish and temperatures beginning to drop just in last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Also, I think the cold high has slowed. Today was supposed to be low to mid 30's and dropping by noon, instead it is 40ish and temperatures beginning to drop just in last hour. Got well into the 30's even up here today. Some locations got to 38. Just dropped below freezing in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Also, I think the cold high has slowed. Today was supposed to be low to mid 30's and dropping by noon, instead it is 40ish and temperatures beginning to drop just in last hour. 36 up here in the coal region of east central PA at the present time, so the cold is even late here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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