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Feb 1/2 Obs


nj2va

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Dca is .35 over 30 hours. Not good for rates

At least it's below freezing and likely won't happen like that. It will end up being a slug and not drawn out. This doesnt look like a long duration event. Heck, who knows how it will go down. Gfs/ggen/euro all give us 3"+. Hardly a bad spot to be in. Just root for the gfs.

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Looking at 96-102 it has that overunning feel. 2-4/3-5 without freeking out over development and track. Just a slug moving over top with cold air in place. I'm kinda feelin it. We haven't seen it for years but this could be one of those events we just watch radar and wait for the goods. No mountain larceny or ptype issues.

I like the overrunning set up. A good slug of moisture coming into a strong high could really work out. Even though the qpf is light on this run keep in mind that when moisture attacks this kind of air mass it often produces good rates. Plus 850's are right around JB's magical -8.

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Right when I really wanted mild weather, Larry Cosgrove forecasts dual blocking into March.

 

Reverse psychology really works. I REALLY wanted mild weather, and now the dual blocking is going to set up.

 

I think I'll keep wishing for 80s and we will get a Little Ice Age.

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06 GFS backs off some on the totals but still wants to give me 5" which is too much for me in Arlington VA.

 

However, the time to start panicking will be Saturday.

 

Hmm... given that recent blown NWS forecast this week, there may still be hope for me even if the Saturday models want to dump on me.

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06 GFS backs off some on the totals but still wants to give me 5" which is too much for me in Arlington VA.

 

However, the time to start panicking will be Saturday.

 

Hmm... given that recent blown NWS forecast this week, there may still be hope for me even if the Saturday models want to dump on me.

went from .78 to .63" at BWI

I'll take that with those ratios   prob 8"+  on 6Z

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For Snow Lovers - Snow Chances increase Monday though there is still uncertainty in Models.

 

Chances of DCA seeing >1 inch 40%

Chances of DCA seeing >4 inches 10%

 

The NAO is predicted to go negative early next week.  Along with it there is a chance that southern stream energy ejecting out of the SW will combine with a northern stream feature diving south from British Columbia to spread moisture over our area..  

 

Bottom Line - Chances of seeing at least a few flakes Monday are better than average.  There is a lot less confidence in intensity duration and exact track.  One thing we can be confident of is that following this event, the area will likely see some of the coldest air of the season.  

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I think this is the first time all winter that two consecutive runs of a model have been fairly consistent. Persistent ridging out west and a mildly negative nao makes for a happy algorithm?

I was just thinking that with regards to the 00z and 6z GFS. It's been a rare occurrence this winter for snowy scenarios.

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GFS Cobb output for DCA

 

00z

.97 qpf or 13.2" snow (9:1 - 14:1 ratios)

06z

.59 qpf or 5.8" snow (12:1 to 15:1 ratios)

 

for IAD

 

00z

.89 qpf or 14.2" snow (10:1 to 17:1 ratios)

06z

.47 qpf or 5.3" snow (11:1 to 14:1 ratios)

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Thanks.

 

I am guessing if this comes together the ratios should be pretty good, as it should be plenty cold.

 

Fingers crossed.

 

MTN (since its closer to you than BWI)

 

00z

.7 qpf, 9.3" snow (13:1 to 14:1 ratios)

 

06z

.56 qpf or 5.1" snow (8:1 to 9:1 ratios)

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