Amped Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I would consider it a sothwesterly flow event not a hecs. We had something similar January 22 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We know the risks. There are plenty. But the 12z suite trended away from a rain event (except for the GGEM) and towards a light snow event. Now 12 hours later the first global of the suite says maybe. 12z jma might score the coup. haha I guess it could cut but in the pattern advertised I kind of doubt it. But the GFS is probably fairly close to a top end scenario unless we dive wischasty. It's not perfect but it's a really good pattern. My "pessimism" earlier was more if we didn't score in this period.. we could certainly score in this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I am all in a bit further north of you guys but you look good too.....need an entire mid-atlantic widespread 12+ event this year, the ocean temps says it can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I would consider it a sothwesterly flow event not a hecs. We had something similar January 22 last year. nobody is calling it a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM is running..juicy in the SW @ hr54. Appears as if I'm hooked, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I guess it could cut but in the pattern advertised I kind of doubt it. But the GFS is probably fairly close to a top end scenario unless we dive wischasty. It's not perfect but it's a really good pattern. My "pessimism" earlier was more if we didn't score in this period.. we could certainly score in this period. I thought it had a good overrunning look with the 12z suite. It's a ns vort mostly but absconds some ss energy. GFS was a perfect scenario and we know how that goes @ 90+ hours. I said earlier that it could easily be a 2-4" overrunning scenario. I'll stick with that but there's some upside if things play out right. Sure looks like we get "some" snow. I'd be a little surprised at a complete shutout at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Been a while since we had a nice SB snow storm. 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I thought it had a good overrunning look with the 12z suite. It's a ns vort mostly but absconds some ss energy. GFS was a perfect scenario and we know how that goes @ 90+ hours. I said earlier that it could easily be a 2-4" overrunning scenario. I'll stick with that but there's some upside if things play out right. Sure looks like we get "some" snow. I'd be a little surprised at a complete shutout at this point. Like you said earlier. More worried about it getting squashed than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Nice subzero temps Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks like the GGEM is trying to force an early phase..can it hold off a bit longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I guess it could cut but in the pattern advertised I kind of doubt it. But the GFS is probably fairly close to a top end scenario unless we dive wischasty. It's not perfect but it's a really good pattern. My "pessimism" earlier was more if we didn't score in this period.. we could certainly score in this period. Scoring in our best Modeled period would do well for sanity sake around here....with that modeled look, a cut West seems like the least likely outcome (though definitely possible) I'd worry more about a track overhead and a flip in precip type, or a sheard out POS that misses South. Reasonable expectations need to be kept throughout this subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks like the GGEM is depicting a solid CAD event, before bombing it out along the apps. Definitely preferable to a strung out mess..solid thump followed by a dryslot and good winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I want to be able to tell people by Saturday afternoon that their super bowl parties will be ruined Outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM is fine...4"+ and then we flip....but the front end thump is super legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I don't want to dash anyone's hopes but it is 4 days away. Lots can and will happen in the models between now and then. I'm excited but as NY and NJ it all looked great then came the shift. Hope to see all the guidance come on board before I start alerting officials of something significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You guys have GGEM beyond 72 hours? @ 72 hours I could tell it wasn't going to be as amped as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You guys have GGEM beyond 72 hours? @ 72 hours I could tell it wasn't going to be as amped as 12z. yes....it is way way better than 12z....instead of a 992mb low over Cleveland it passes over us.....we get thumped good...probably 4-6" before the flip, but huge trend toward the southern solutions.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You guys have GGEM beyond 72 hours? @ 72 hours I could tell it wasn't going to be as amped as 12z. AmWx model site uploads it pretty fast with a modern-day color scheme. It's a good run..would be a decent CAD set-up with re high to the N and the NE surface winds during the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 And just like clockwork the GFS returns to it's epic snowstorm that it saw 384 hours out now that it's getting into the shorter range. Got a little help by the ridge out west and got a slightly sharper trof. Wish we could lock this solution up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Nice subzero temps Monday night Yesterday it was crazy good, then bad, now great. The great is fun but there will be some more bad. The high(s) will not give up. Moonlite, snow covered and 24. Pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This is one of the most absurd things I've ever seen on a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This is one of the most absurd things I've ever seen on a model. All time record for EFZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This is one of the most absurd things I've ever seen on a model. Need to toss this run, it has the Hot Tub DCA at -7. This would be bizarro world....EZF at -16....it is a pretty spectacular map to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This is one of the most absurd things I've ever seen on a model. The entire run is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 AmWx model site uploads it pretty fast with a modern-day color scheme. It's a good run..would be a decent CAD set-up with re high to the N and the NE surface winds during the transfer. Its also a bit slower than the GFS it would appear and we go from thump to heavy wet snow at 114... its barely a snow sounding at 114, but its a pasting 108-114 Its a 6-10 for N VA and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 nice runs. Come on Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 For the next month you need to become snow. again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Canadian closes off H7, 90% chance of a warm layer above 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z euro ensemble mslp track looked a lot like the 0z gfs op. Unfortunately this one is another small margin of error event. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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