January 26-28 Blizzard Observations/Nowcast

[butterfish55]

Looks like NYC may do OK.  Heavy bands closing in.

 

RAD_KDIX_N0R_ANI.gif

 

When that band gets to the city, CNN's Blizzardmobile may finally have something to film

 

 

Absolutely hollowing outside now.  Pretty impossible to measure the snow, but eyeballing 5"

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6.5"+ maybe closer to 6"+ .... Really hard to tell

33 to go according to the euro.

[Bryan]

This is beautiful, snow ripping, wind blinding everything, been missing this all winter!

[Jenkins]

Which side of the CF is the more advantageous side in a setup like this and if anyone would care to explain why?

[HullMA]

Blowing 35+ constant. Gusts up to 50. I think we may hit 70mph winds on the south shore. Not just the cape.

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMAHULL9

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMACOHAS2

[ROOSTA]

For the love if God I don't get why some people are micro-managing every nuance. I would be on cloud 9, walking (if I could) or at-least be glued to a window soaking as much beauty of which this storm truly is. 12-18hrs to go...Whoa! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15.0/12

S-

2"

 

Starting to intensify a bit...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Which side of the CF is the more advantageous side in a setup like this and if anyone would care to explain why?

The nw side.....combo of cold and lift owed to convergence of milder marine air, and polar air.

[N. OF PIKE]

Looks like NYC may do OK.  Heavy bands closing in.

 

RAD_KDIX_N0R_ANI.gif

It will be Very close for them, looks like that N-S band is starting to pivot E of C NJ and then the band will  slow /stop westward progress and sorta sink SSW/S probably in next few frames. I hope they get it

[DomNH]

Probably about 1'' here near LWM. Don't see any reason to waver up this way.

[BRSno]

Awesome stuff here in eastie

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Based on 00z raobs, GFS looks to be verifying the best at 500 mb with the trailing shortwave. The Euro may be a hair better at 850 mb with the low center's heights.

 

See below

 

I should say that the Euro was too deep with the trailing shortwave versus the GFS.

 

Great stuff thanks.  No doubt partially explains how it got a little further out there before the eventual capture. 

 

DId you have a chance to look at the old/new RGEM vs those obs?  I'm really hoping it's off base on the earlier exit tomorrow.

[Whineminster]

1" maybe 1.5" down so far. Certainly looking like the 24"-30" totals in Berks will not come to fruition at this juncture.

I think it's going to disappoint for everyone west of a Nashua to Tolland line , when I left Boston at 9 PM it was howling with already a few inches on the ground.....out here it's bare roads with a only heavy dusting OTG and pixie dust falling

[Jenkins]

The nw side.....combo of cold and lift owed to convergence of milder marine air, and polar air.

Thanks!

[OceanStWx]

Which side of the CF is the more advantageous side in a setup like this and if anyone would care to explain why?

 

Immediate cold side. Easterly flow hits the front and is lifted up and over, placing heaviest precip just on the cold side.

 

[donsutherland1]

For those who are interested, the biggest January 15-February 15 snowstorm for Boston when the AO was positive was the 2/2-5/1961 storm. In that storm 14.4" snow fell. Boston should eclipse that figure in this storm.

[JC-CT]

Winds definitely starting to pick up

[Whineminster]

I just re-read my post and that was actually my worst post of the day lol , it came out  alarmist, much more so  than I intended originally

 

I don't see Euro making a big shift. I think it will cut NW edge of QPF decently thou for sure.

 

I am def. not bullish on the NYC situation. Weenies there are down to less than one hand counting METS who have not thrown in the towel.....Joe B just did ....so they apparently have 2 mets left lol

How far west is this "northwest edge" everyone referring to? Albany? KORE?

[walthsnow]

Considering how this winter had been progressing up until this past weekend I'm going to happily chill with whatever falls. Radar looks nice. Wind is howling. Snow blowing sideways. I'll take it.

[OceanStWx]

See below

 

 

Great stuff thanks.  No doubt partially explains how it got a little further out there before the eventual capture. 

 

DId you have a chance to look at the old/new RGEM vs those obs?  I'm really hoping it's off base on the earlier exit tomorrow.

 

Not surprisingly, the RGEM is lock step with the GFS at 500 mb valid 3 hours ago.

 

Makes total sense though, a deeper 500 mb wave would tug the Euro back west farther than the weaker models.

 

[Jenkins]

Band coming onto southern ri coast looks it means business.

[WeatherWilly]

Wakefield 7.0

Portsmouth 5.2

Fairhaven 5

Cranston 5

Westerly 5

 

I have about 5.5 here.

[New England Storm]

snow is ripping outside, wind is starting to howl and radar looks good. A big area of heavy snow looks to be heading for East Falmouth.

[TalcottWx]

It's been whiteout for awhile here now.

[WeatherWilly]

Block Island basically doesn't exist at the moment...........heaviest band yet approaching rhode island and conn coast.

[JC-CT]

You can already see a megaband forming south of Long Island. RGEM never had it get past the eastern third of CT for its most western progress. It looks like it will get a bit farther west than that, but we will see.

 

That heavier band on the far western edge of the storm is just a surprise win I think.

[andyhb]

Latest MCD is a doozy from Dr. Marsh...

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND
MASSACHUSETTS

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 270432Z - 270900Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC...EXTENDING EASTWARD
OVER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ARCTIC
HIGH...A LOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 STATUTE MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEW YORK CITY WAS RAPIDLY DEEPENING /AS EVIDENCED BY 03 UTC 2-HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 7MB AT BUOY NUMBER 44008 SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET/. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WILL ONLY INTENSIFY AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS /WITH GUSTS NEARING 50
KNOTS ALONG THE COAST/ WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC THETA-E ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE INCREASING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENESIS...BANDING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BROADER SNOW AREA WILL
PROMOTE SNOW RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...LOCALLY
APPROACHING 4 INCHES PER HOUR...OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING SNOW RATES WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PROLONGED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND NORTHWARD INTO
THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

..MARSH.. 01/27/2015

[NorEastermass128]

That band entering NYC looks like it means business. 

 

Probably a couple inches here so far.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Harv took the 24+ out of ORH CO

[JC-CT]

Latest MCD is a doozy from Dr. Marsh...

 

I just got excited again