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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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The board has been struggling so I played with myself and decided we should have a new thread rather than contribute to letting the forum bog down with the 00z models.

 

Kevin...I stole and split a post from the other thread so that you could still have credit for it.

I'm not sure how that helped. :axe:

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So I tried to post but couldn't.  

 

So I'll try again.

 

The impact of 78 was largely due to a skeptical public refusing to believe the forecasts.  Then when the start of the snow was delayed, they figured it wasn't happening.   So lots of folks got caught on the roads.  I can't ever see that happening today.

 

Two weeks earlier that season on January 19th-20th, there was a big one ... I think that one was forecast as a rain/mix pellet fest and turned out to set Boston's 24 -hour snow record for the time.  

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Couple questions I have.  

 

Obviously this system should have quite the deformation band associated with it, however, (and this isn't a main concern but more curious I guess) is it possible the deformation band has trouble staying in tact and exceptionally strong for a long period of time?  The system which will stall for a time (or move very slowly) is going to become occluded and that will eventually cut off the warm/moist flow into the system and the 700mb low seems to become a bit more disorganized after a few hours in which models show a very tight closed off circulation...is it possible we see a very healthy looking deformation band just off to our west but sort of "fizzling" as it would move east?

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Actually NWS and some TV mets forecasted it quite well but some prominent OCMs pooh poohed it.

 

You are right on. Harvey called it ahead of time and the morning of the storm all the local stations were calling for 1 to 2 feet the way I remember it. The problem was the snow didn't start as early as planned. Most people went off to work. It was a different time. There wasn't the option to work at home for so many. There was no internet but there was Shelby Scott!. I was in high school at the time. I lived in Dedham (jackpot zone Southwest of the city). I'll never forget the wind that morning even before the snow began. The destruction on the coastline was just incredible. 

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I'm a long-time lurker/occasional poster, but having actually experienced '78 on the North Shore I might actually be able to contribute. We were out of school for five days. Snow was ridiculous, and it was on top of a pretty significant storm a couple weeks prior. Will attempt to compare, please excuse model run glitches due to, Um, senior moments...

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I am actually surprised that BOX has my low total for this storm 21" and the high total noted as 33". It just seems like some very large numbers to throw out there.

edit: earlier in the day the forecast totals were quite a bit lower.

Euro within 48 hours...hard to bet against.
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