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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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Is Mike Wankum dumbing it down or is he dumb? Is he talking about the dry air? New GFS from 18z? What Mike... What

The new and improved GFS want to drive warmer air father inland. Reducing totals near the coast. #wcvb

He must have his reasons, and thoughts.

 

...Plus, don't believe everything you see on twitter.

:)

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I'm a long-time lurker/occasional poster, but having actually experienced '78 on the North Shore I might actually be able to contribute. We were out of school for five days. Snow was ridiculous, and it was on top of a pretty significant storm a couple weeks prior. Will attempt to compare, please excuse model run glitches due to, Um, senior moments...

We lost 2 weeks plus in Foxboro. School roof caved in...best winter ever

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Couple questions I have.  

 

Obviously this system should have quite the deformation band associated with it, however, (and this isn't a main concern but more curious I guess) is it possible the deformation band has trouble staying in tact and exceptionally strong for a long period of time?  The system which will stall for a time (or move very slowly) is going to become occluded and that will eventually cut off the warm/moist flow into the system and the 700mb low seems to become a bit more disorganized after a few hours in which models show a very tight closed off circulation...is it possible we see a very healthy looking deformation band just off to our west but sort of "fizzling" as it would move east?

That is more of a risk from far ne MA points ne...certainly not for you.

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Jay with Astro tides at 10 flooding will be reduced, currently surge values are 3 ft for the worst tide with 2 for the 2nd. Seas are expected 25-35 feet. Will be some modest flooding and severe erosion but not nearly as bad if tides were Astro high

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map&region=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=&stn=

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You are right on. Harvey called it ahead of time and the morning of the storm all the local stations were calling for 1 to 2 feet the way I remember it. The problem was the snow didn't start as early as planned. Most people went off to work. It was a different time. There wasn't the option to work at home for so many. There was no internet but there was Shelby Scott!. I was in high school at the time. I lived in Dedham (jackpot zone Southwest of the city). I'll never forget the wind that morning even before the snow began. The destruction on the coastline was just incredible. 

I was on my way to work in Needham when Don Kent came on the radio just before noon concerned that if the storm didn't start soon, he thought the phase might not take place.  In a little over an hour a wall of snow hit blowing sideways.  Left work within 15 minutes of the start, and took 3 hours to get home to Randolph taking the back roads, normally a 30 minute drive.  If I had gone 128, I probably would have been stranded up by Dedham, Canton.

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16/7 here high clouds starting to obscure the stars. Nice to finally have a system this year that has close to zero chance of tainting out here.

Radar and water vapor images look like precip moves into New England a little ahead of schedule?

 

It's going to be a cold system for sure.  Forecast temps for GC:

 

Tonight:  4

Monday:  19

M-nite:     13

Tues:       17

T-night     9

 

 

As far as timing---I think it's going to be a virga city for a bit to moisten the atmosphere.

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That is more of a risk from far ne MA points ne...certainly not for you.

 

yeah I agree...probably not much of a concern down this way.  for much of CT I went 18-24'' to start (but mentioned 24-36'' is possible) but before going ahead and going with those much higher totals 1) want to try and get an idea of where the heaviest banding traverses and 2) how does the banding act over time?  Also before going much higher want to really get a handle on the exact track and positioning of the 700/850 lows and how they mature over time.  

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I wish coastal flooding people would weigh in because I have no idea comparatively to some other storm related stuff. I'm within sight of Boston Harbor from the parents... but that kind of stuff doesn't affect us. We are sheltered.

From what i have gathered there will be moderate flooding. I live in hull on the ocean and am going to Scituate for the night. (better chance of not flooding/keeping power)

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