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Damage In Tolland

Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler

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Matt Noyes' 2 areas of maxima has pretty good model support. #1 Kevin - ORH (deformation band), #2 southeast MA and possibly Boston metro / North shore (coastal front + ocean enhancement). Let's hope the areas of subsidence are not as dramatic as on the RGEM.

Hope the 0z suite starts to hone in, but we all know these dynamic beasts always have some surprises. Anyone remember if the Feb 2013 death band over CT was forecast correctly by any models?

Agree that 2-3 feet NYC is a ballsy call... it's Euro or bust.

No it was supposed to be farther west

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Borrowed from the other thread, ... with Feb 1978 being in the top 5 analogs, I thought it fitting to start this one off with an homage to a legend:

 

fixedw_large_4x.jpg

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The state of the art of "storm management" from a Civil Engineering perspective is a bit more sophisticated compared to 1978. Also, there are in-home and in-office amenities that make living easier in general, so that sort of a storm can't really carry the same impact. Relative to times, we'd need yet a more severe storm than 1978 was, in order to compare/off-set these advantages of more modern, and ever improving capacities to deal with calamities of such ilk.

 

Secondly, 1978 was ...for lack of better word, perfection. There's this storm in lore from 20 someodd years go called the "Perfect Storm"; truth be told, there are probably a handful of storms dating back 200 to 300 years that could be indistinguishable from 'pefection', in the sense that the parametric design going into them are so exceedingly rare. They transcend the regular pedestrian weather affair that designs the winter-time seasonal norm in our neck of the woods. So having said that, making this storm both comparable (relative to era) to 1978, and ... having it verify as having such distinctive physical components in it's evolution, are very tall orders, and a betting man would be wise to say no - it won't. That being said, at some point in time, ... comets collide with planets. Stars go supernovae. So we can't remove the probability of a dystopic outcome altogether... Best thing to do is heed warnings by reputable media outlets, and for those that understand the esoteric nature of the langue, monitor the modeling, data, and AFDs. 

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Here is the 78 snowfall map for comparative purposes

 

 

The impact beyond the numbers was legendary, those amounts don't do the storm justice even that high lol

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Look at this spin evidenced by radar !!

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

 

That's gotta explode when that torgue moves out over the boundary between this artic air invading the NE and near-by coastal waters, and that of the thermally charged west Atlantic/Gulf Stream.  

 

That's sick... Shrink that thing up a bit and it would almost look like one of those book-end vortices off an MCS.  Usually you see cyclonic structure evident than the actual rotation.. But here we see both!

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Any thoughts on how much damage this storm may actually do (if much at all)?

I wish coastal flooding people would weigh in because I have no idea comparatively to some other storm related stuff. I'm within sight of Boston Harbor from the parents... but that kind of stuff doesn't affect us. We are sheltered.

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Not really ... honestly, these system get fickle the higher up the ladder they get... You got to kind of expect the unexpected... No one thought 110mph wind burst from tropospheric fold would take place in December 2005 for example.

 

There's that... but this is multi faceted...  Tides are a concern.  Major flooding at shore district is being warned...  There could be wind gust power outages in powder snow ... I mean, the envelope is full, and specifics of that order take place or don't.

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I wish coastal flooding people would weigh in because I have no idea comparatively to some other storm related stuff. I'm within sight of Boston Harbor from the parents... but that kind of stuff doesn't affect us. We are sheltered.

Yea, that is a gap in my met knowledge, too.

I think Steve is well versed in that.

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The board has been struggling so I convened with myself and decided we should have a new thread rather than contribute to letting the forum bog down with the 00z models.

 

Kevin...I stole and split a post from the other thread so that you could still have credit for it.

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So I tried to post but couldn't.  

 

So I'll try again.

 

The impact of 78 was largely due to a skeptical public refusing to believe the forecasts.  Then when the start of the snow was delayed, they figured it wasn't happening.   So lots of folks got caught on the roads.  I can't ever see that happening today.

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My mom always told me that showers were forecast and they got feet. 

 

So I tried to post but couldn't.  

 

So I'll try again.

 

The impact of 78 was largely due to a skeptical public refusing to believe the forecasts.  Then when the start of the snow was delayed, they figured it wasn't happening.   So lots of folks got caught on the roads.  I can't ever see that happening today.

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Just hoping I dont end up in a screwzone. Other than that, not to much else to worry about.

It will be nearly impossible to pin down exact bands and things of that nature until very close in.

Hopefully everyone can get home within a timely fashion tomorrow night. I plan on being off the road at 6 pm the latest

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What was the N extent on that, Jerry?

 

 

Looks like from about Newburyport then following roughly 495 down to just west of PVD.

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My mom always told me that showers were forecast and they got feet. 

 

 

Actually NWS and some TV mets forecasted it quite well but some prominent OCMs pooh poohed it.

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Maybe CT mets did less good? She was living in New Haven or North Haven at the time. 

 

 

Not sure.  I missed it as I moved to LA about 15 months earlier.  I will go to my grave with the disappointment of missing that storm so hopefully this one is a decent match.

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lol no just voicing an opinion/standing up for another member. Hope you get hit hard Jerry! Epic storm.

 

I doubt people off the cape get under 18 inches.  Writing is on the wall for this big boy.

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Jerry, Dec 2007 gridlock,storm? Plenty of notice, people were still dumb. I know there were other factors.

And the road thing was just a tiny piece of that storm. The coastal impacts were the biggest IMHO. 40+" of snow, hurricane winds well inland, collapse of power grid! many structural failures also an issue. Lots of people dying from trying to shovel too

But you know all this. I just get wound up.

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