moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The HWO from BOX is enough to raise spirits a little bit. 16.2/4 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...MAINLY AWAYFROM THE COAST...SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A MIX WITH SLEET AND/ORFREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN DURING SUNDAY MORNING.THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT WINTER WEATHERHEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF BLUSTERY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDGUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ON MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 GYX afternoon discussion was bullish on this event, considering the issues and its being barely inside 100 hr. Hope they're on target. Excerpt: This storm is still several days away but confidence it increasing that much of the area could receive 6" or more of snow through the weekend along with spotty ice accretions. I read the same thing happily. I went from this thread of deflated expectations, thinking I had to adjust my thinking from 6-10 to 3-6. Now I am at 4-8, happily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12/8. Cold Looking at the next few days this will not be a "stale" cold air mass heading into "go time" with this system. Based on past experience for this area the CAD won't scour out quickly unless the models really swing toward a wound up Low cutting W with that E Canada high on an express train out. N of RT 2 still looks decent front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Frontal wave behind the initial wave of precip on the models, too bad it doesn't cool down fast enough to turn that rain into snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Sorry guys. Out of town and short on time. How did 18z gfs look for the storm? North of 12z? I'm interested in the sensible water for Warren Vt. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Kind of pumped at this storm, even if I only get like an inch followed by a wave a warm rain It feels like winter. This storm should quiet any type of anxiety of winter not arriving. You got cold weather, you will get some snow... You got winter. Good jobs to the mets on the board who sniffed this out days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 00z NAM smacks of 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I read the same thing happily. I went from this thread of deflated expectations, thinking I had to adjust my thinking from 6-10 to 3-6. Now I am at 4-8, happily 4-8" is probably a good place to sit right now. A little warmer and it could be near 4", a little colder and it could be near 8". These storms move quickly though, so there is an upper limit, and that likely will be reached somewhere a little further north and east where they can hang onto the cold longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 As we slip inside of 4 days there is still plenty of time for details, but we're starting to come into range of some higher resolution guidance. For instance, NAM profiles on Bufkit are picking up the storm at the tail end of it's range. You can see how it handles the low levels, versus the GFS. The GFS profiles warm in one big chunk to above freezing below 700 mb early Sunday, even this far north. The NAM warms quickly too, but only in the 800-700 mb layer, while the surface (and especially 925 mb) stays cold. Even though it is the NAM near 84 hours, I will still be blending in some of its lower level guidance in my forecast later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Also interesting to note the profiles (NAM and GFS) right around onset of precipitation. Especially across the interior you have like a 300 mb deep layer within a degree or two of ideal dendritic growth. If you factor in our marine environment tends to raise the temperatures necessary for dendritic growth slightly, that could mean a several hour period of excellent snow growth early on. As we know, these SWFE tend to come in as a wall, and this would certainly support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Sounds nice. I wish I was up in Mt. Vernon in northern Kennebec county where we vacation in the summer for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Also interesting to note the profiles (NAM and GFS) right around onset of precipitation. Especially across the interior you have like a 300 mb deep layer within a degree or two of ideal dendritic growth. If you factor in our marine environment tends to raise the temperatures necessary for dendritic growth slightly, that could mean a several hour period of excellent snow growth early on. As we know, these SWFE tend to come in as a wall, and this would certainly support that. Yeah a lot of deep layer lift. You'll probably have a nice classic CF too enhancing the snow before it torches aloft, esp up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah a lot of deep layer lift. You'll probably have a nice classic CF too enhancing the snow before it torches aloft, esp up there. Yeah initially I can see Cape Elizabeth above freezing, while parts of Portland near the turnpike will be in the mid 20s. Even at 84 hours I like that the NAM has GYX rotting at 33 F overnight Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Nammy being Nammy with the QPF. Almost 1" liquid here before mixing. I haven't looked closely, but maybe it's a little more potent with the isentropic upglide with the deeper low-level cold dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Nammy being Nammy with the QPF. Almost 1" liquid here before mixing. I haven't looked closely, but maybe it's a little more potent with the isentropic upglide with the deeper low-level cold dome. I would say so. Ripping 65 knots up the 290 K surface, about 150 mb lift traveling from LI to your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I can't tell that we'll on 24hr intervals but euro looks a bit cooler, nothing drastic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 There's definitely some indication that there could be a several hour icing event over the interior after the initial snow thump...and we'll have to watch that snow thump. Some guidance has it pretty good for about 3-4 hours on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I hate ice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I hate ice.... They'll be some, esp the typical areas in nrn ORH/Monads it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 as long as it's not a power disruption, I'm fine. Not having power for 6 days doesn't get me the least bit excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS really warms up the mid levels this run. Are we mixing that warm air to the ground? It would be nice to go on a nice warm run Sunday after the past two weeks of food and drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 as long as it's not a power disruption, I'm fine. Not having power for 6 days doesn't get me the least bit excited.You'll roar well into the 40's Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 You'll roar well into the 40's Sunday But weren't you saying yesterday that it would be tough to scour out the cold???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This is an unusual cold relative to the big picture (synopsis). You don't typically see any negative departures when the 500mb flow is SW, and there is a 594dm closed height contour over the Bahamas. ..But if it were not for the antecedent -EPO and the completely random, lucky timing of nuance confluence N providing a back-up polar high pressure to offer the lower troposphere/boundary layer inhibition, we'd be talking an entirely different picture with this thing. It's pretty lucky that there is any talk of any snow ...let alone ice, when looking at that 500mb surface in the above attachment. 594dm in December?! I mean, THAT is the interesting Meteorology. I find this arrangement with a lucky high against all ... as being sort of masking the already troubled status this winter is fast becoming. It's kind of a like a PR campaign in the aftermath of some sort of political scandal - ha. I was looking at the Euro freeby charts from the 00z run, and that just hands down looks like a warm fropa there... All the way to upper CNE. You got the entire region south of there, and east of central New York, in the triangular barotropic, isobaric layout. It looks like this ... To me, the interesting aspect about the Friday through Monday period of time isn't the fragile moments of snow and ice (yeah, or few hours, whatever) that will in the end prove gossamer and gone, it's the geopotential anomaly off the SE U.S. coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 But weren't you saying yesterday that it would be tough to scour out the cold???? Earlier in the week when it looked like we'd 2ndary and the high would hold.. But that started changing on guidance the last 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Earlier in the week when it looked like we'd 2ndary and the high would hold.. But that started changing on guidance the last 2 days. Yeah it looks like we warm for a day and then colder weather sets in. Can we at least get some snow to go with it...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah it looks like we warm for a day and then colder weather sets in. Can we at least get some snow to go with it......Well you def will get 3-4 inches. And maybe keep some of it.. That's still debatable. But down here it's an hour or 2 of snow and sleet then quick torch and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Well you def will get 3-4 inches. And maybe keep some of it.. That's still debatable. But down here it's an hour or 2 of snow and sleet then quick torch and rain That will be fun to see (and as I called it a few days ago). Rain this time of year is always pretty to see. Is nice to see the trend continuing as we head into the 2nd month of met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Well you def will get 3-4 inches. And maybe keep some of it.. That's still debatable. But down here it's an hour or 2 of snow and sleet then quick torch and rain I'm waiting to set up my Davis Vantage Pro 2, but now that the ground has refrozen, it looks like I might have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 4 to 6 inches here then ice. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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