Jan 3-4 Storm Threat

[Damage In Tolland]

Probably 40s at some point given how warm it gets aloft. Whether it's 39 or 45 is silly to speculate.

Well if you're correct on this forecast.. This so much reminds me of all those years in the 1980's.. Where we'd get a couple inches of snow and by the time the storm ended even the plow piles had melted and then the bitter cold rushed right back in as soon as the last vestiges of snow melted .i have terrible memories of those years.

[CoastalWx]

Amazing how the lack of a -NAO allows these storms an almost guarantee to cut to our west. Sunday jumps to near 50F for a few hours sandwiched between significant cold. I remember years like this in the past. Are we actually getting close to the lock in point for Sunday's storm or should we expect further swings to west/east, etc.

 

Well any wiggle west or east means a lot, so I'd say the goal posts are narrowed, but the track TBD and more importantly strength of primary. We've had plenty of storms track west of us before and dump warning snowfall as the secondary moves over SE MA. 

[CoastalWx]

Well if you're correct on this forecast.. This so much reminds me of all those years in the 1980's.. Where we'd get a couple inches of snow and by the time the storm ended even the plow piles had melted and then the bitter cold rushed right back in as soon as the last vestiges of snow melted .i have terrible memories of those years.

 

Dude, who knows, maybe it's stuck in the U30s or something. You are going to have a stroke. It's really mind numbing to talk temps over 4 days out. You clearly forget what happened several years ago.

[ORH_wxman]

Don't worry about such specific details this far out.

If triple point develops then sfc temps will spend most of the storm near or below freezing over interior. You might mix out to 38 during FROPA. It also could be much less defined triple point and we all spike to 48-50.

We will know more in another couple model cycles.

[moneypitmike]

2-5", followed by a period of sleet and rain..done 

 

Even if we can manage the low-end of that, it will be better than the bupkis we've had for the past month.

[CoastalWx]

You'll be in the 30s for most of the event anyways. This is more after the event. Again, real early to say.

[Damage In Tolland]

Don't worry about such specific details this far out.

If triple point develops then sfc temps will spend most of the storm near or below freezing over interior. You might mix out to 38 during FROPA. It also could be much less defined triple point and we all spike to 48-50.

We will know more in another couple model cycles.

Thanks. Just me and my compulsive disorder worrying about things

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Jesus, a few hours in the low 40's will not erase a dense snow/sleet pack. There will be white ground for many come Monday morning.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thanks. Just me and my compulsive disorder worrying about things

I am not sure how quickly precip shuts off when it turns to rain down here. Really don't want a prolonged rain event. Wouldn't mind 1-2" snow then a few hours of sleet.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Jesus, a few hours in the low 40's will not erase a dense snow/sleet pack. There will be white ground for many come Monday morning.

We worry. It's Jan, time to make moves on winter. Each event becomes more precious.

[ORH_wxman]

Worrying about very little shift in models or every op solution right now will drive you insane. If you feel the need to vent your angst, I'd suggest the banter thread.

All anyone can tell you in this thread is that we need to wait another couple model cycles before getting a bit more specific.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Worrying about very little shift in models or every op solution right now will drive you insane. If you feel the need to vent your angst, I'd suggest the banter thread.

All anyone can tell you in this thread is that we need to wait another couple model cycles before getting a bit more specific.

It would be nice to see 12z euro come in colder with the high in better position. I think if we are making moves it starts today.

[mahk_webstah]

It would seem this event will have a cap on it, due to it's nature.  The winner somewhere in upper CNE and NNE will get close to a foot, but most of those with mostly snow will be in the 6-8 range I'd bet.  These are nice, generally dependable CNE NNE events, ones that build the snowpack.  Less risk than the coastals, but less upside potential.

[N. OF PIKE]

Reading the Caribou maine discussion and the fact that are talking about mixing issues and even mention change to rain when they reference the Euro, should send the message home that the warm air could get pretty far north in this set up, obviously depending on track and phasing w northern jet and lack of block/ high pressure trends.

[weathafella]

Amazing how the lack of a -NAO allows these storms an almost guarantee to cut to our west. Sunday jumps to near 50F for a few hours sandwiched between significant cold. I remember years like this in the past. Are we actually getting close to the lock in point for Sunday's storm or should we expect further swings to west/east, etc.

Don't kid yourself. It's not that simple. Last winter has a positive NAO and many storms went under us in fact too much so. We also had plenty of cutters.

We've had plenty of cutters with a NAO and plenty of big Coastal KUs without one. If the high moves east, you're toast and sometimes confluence in a positive NAO can get storms going under you. I urge you to purchase the Kocin-Ucellini book to see specific examples.

In general, you want NAO but we've been skunked with and rewarded without in numerous examples.

[dryslot]

Reading the Caribou maine discussion and the fact that are talking about mixing issues and even mention change to rain when they reference the Euro, should send the message home that the warm air could get pretty far north in this set up, obviously depending on track and phasing w northern jet and lack of block/ high pressure trends.

 

Keep in mind, They also have the downeast coast as one of there zones, So they did mention south, Right now its unlikely Northern Maine sees much if any warming

[Damage In Tolland]

Torch any snow away then. On to the clipper

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah not a good run this time...still some frozen on the front end, but this is a faster flip.

Maybe more like 1-3". 

Oh well....should be the last $hitty event for awhile.

[jamesnichols89]

I've been on the clipper since Monday.

[Damage In Tolland]

Kudos to Ryan yesterday on no snow pike south with this one.

[CoastalWx]

I don't think he said no snow, I think he said something about it being inconsequential. They'll be some snow, but this never was much south of the pike. 

[ORH_wxman]

Maybe more like 1-3". 

Oh well....should be the last $hitty event for awhile.

 

Yeah I like the clipper look right now...hopefully it gets better as we get closer.

 

This event could still produce a nice little burst on the front end...esp N of the pike. It's a pretty good slug of moisture running into that arctic airmass initially. I would prefer to see the trend of the stronger primary ease back toward the triple point more though.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't think he said no snow, I think he said something about it being inconsequential. They'll be some snow, but this never was much south of the pike.

Most were saying 1-3 south . Now that shifts north with everyone getting near 50 with rain. Telling you.. This whole setup is so 1980's

[J Paul Gordon]

Don't kid yourself. It's not that simple. Last winter has a positive NAO and many storms went under us in fact too much so. We also had plenty of cutters.

We've had plenty of cutters with a NAO and plenty of big Coastal KUs without one. If the high moves east, you're toast and sometimes confluence in a positive NAO can get storms going under you. I urge you to purchase the Kocin-Ucellini book to see specific examples.

In general, you want NAO but we've been skunked with and rewarded without in numerous examples.

Thanks for the insight. I'm still not clear enough in my understanding of these things. What is moving this particular storm to our west? Is it that the cold HP is being pushed out? What is the likelihood for the storm moving south of us or redeveloping as a coastal moving to our east?

 

I'm not looking for a fantasy situation but one based on meteorology. I'm at an age where I can deal with weather being weather--whatever my own preferences. But I would like to understand better how it happens.

[CoastalWx]

Most were saying 1-3 south . Now that shifts north with everyone getting near 50 with rain. Telling you.. This whole setup is so 1980's

 

So you get 1 or 2". Seems ok.  You are acting like this would turn into 6-10. 

[Damage In Tolland]

So you get 1 or 2". Seems ok. You are acting like this would turn into 6-10.

Right now I wouldn't get any. Who cares I guess. I'm expecting a start as sleet which quickly goes to rain . ORH gets an inch , Hunch 2 and SNH 3-4

[moneypitmike]

That's a torch of a run for the upcoming system.

[mahk_webstah]

Up here I prefer an NAO that is changing from positive to negative and back throughout a winter because sometimes we get storms in the transition period.  Too much -NAO not so great.

[weathafella]

Thanks for the insight. I'm still not clear enough in my understanding of these things. What is moving this particular storm to our west? Is it that the cold HP is being pushed out? What is the likelihood for the storm moving south of us or redeveloping as a coastal moving to our east?

 

I'm not looking for a fantasy situation but one based on meteorology. I'm at an age where I can deal with weather being weather--whatever my own preferences. But I would like to understand better how it happens.

The wave is ejecting a bit too late after the high moves off. Had NAO been in place, the high may well have held. But also the lack of NAO allows the SE ridge to flex much more steering storms west of it. Remember, if SE ridge is totally gone we can often lose storms to our south. So it's unfortunately not a simple explanation.

[weathafella]

Up here I prefer an NAO that is changing from positive to negative and back throughout a winter because sometimes we get storms in the transition period.  Too much -NAO not so great.

You're just scarred by 2009-10 as we all were but I would root on NAO before not. Yes, changing states bring the storms often. Positive can keep you very warm without EPO help and even then it may not be enough. You'd have to move 200 miles further north.