Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yea, we'll grab 2-3", endure a period of sleet, then over to the coldest rain imaginable before continuing to warm.lol 32.01 rain Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 4-6" looks good here with some PL and then changeover to DZ, There won't be very much ZR with this storm down in the lower elevations anyways, In the foothills and mountains, A different story GYX talks about a cold layer between 1K and 2K. 675 here. It seems to have sped up to a chance of snow in the afternoon here and then snow in the evening. Wouldn't mind it speeding up some more...horrible to miss a burst of heavy snow during the overnight, that has changed over by the time you wake up. We can probably start to use the NAM and mesos now. Hope we see good trends in the 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GYX talks about a cold layer between 1K and 2K. 675 here. It seems to have sped up to a chance of snow in the afternoon here and then snow in the evening. Wouldn't mind it speeding up some more...horrible to miss a burst of heavy snow during the overnight, that has changed over by the time you wake up. We can probably start to use the NAM and mesos now. Hope we see good trends in the 12Z runs. These tend to come in faster then modeled typically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I would be excited about this if it wasn't for the changeover portion, but hopefully the mountains here see net gain (which they very well may). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 These tend to come in faster then modeled typically ...and leave faster. Unfortunately the mid-level warmth often seems to move in more quickly than modeled but that just might be my jaded, biased opinion. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 ...and leave faster. Unfortunately the mid-level warmth often seems to move in more quickly than modeled but that just might be my jaded, biased opinion. lol All of the above, We shall see how it goes but a net gain looks in order either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 NAM is still pretty impressive with that initial WAA fronto-band. Pretty fast transition though between the CT/MA border at 00z and up near Ray's area and LWM by 03z...and that is when the precip is heaviest. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a raging pellet storm for about 2-3 hours too just after the initial snow burst flips over. Still really cold at 900-950mb level for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Will this be a wet heavy snow or more powder? The first .5" of snow will be powdery. The second .5" of snow will be less so. GYX talks about a cold layer between 1K and 2K. 675 here. It seems to have sped up to a chance of snow in the afternoon here and then snow in the evening. Wouldn't mind it speeding up some more...horrible to miss a burst of heavy snow during the overnight, that has changed over by the time you wake up. We can probably start to use the NAM and mesos now. Hope we see good trends in the 12Z runs. Agreed--let's be able to enjoy the short-lived wintry stuff while we can. ...and leave faster. Unfortunately the mid-level warmth often seems to move in more quickly than modeled but that just might be my jaded, biased opinion. lol And the lower-level warmth slower. What's the take on how much of the qpf is snow vs. ip vs. zr vs. rn? 30.8/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 WS watch from GYX has 4-8" for the foothills. Seems reasonable, given qpf and timing of warming. If we can reach the midpoint of that range, this month will have had more snow than either Jan 2013 or Jan 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 ...and leave faster. Unfortunately the mid-level warmth often seems to move in more quickly than modeled but that just might be my jaded, biased opinion. lol I totally agree with this. Especially with SWFE type things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 So with the timing shifting earlier, does that imply everything moving earlier? Specifically, does is that reflective of the high retreating earlier or does it suggest more resistance to the warm rush could be at play? Inquiring melters want to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I totally agree with this. Especially with SWFE type things GYX says as much. But you know.... It's all about da burst bout da burst no fizzle Its pretty clear it can dump on you if it want to it got da boom boom at the front end that all the weenies chases it got some heavy dumping hopefully at the right places I see the warm aloft on the models We hope that **** ain't real Come on now make it stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z RGEM is also pretty impressive with the intial burst. That would be advisory snows for a good chunk of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z RGEM is also pretty impressive with the intial burst. That would be advisory snows for a good chunk of MA. Yeah i noticed the high held on longer up here on this run, Looks like 12z GFS is a shade colder then 06z as well, Even buying another hour or two will make a big difference on totals for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah i noticed the high held on longer up here on this run, Looks like 12z GFS is a shade colder then 06z as well, Even buying another hour or two will make a big difference on totals for some An extra hour or two of good rates can make the difference between 'yeah' and 'meh'. Congrats 290 corridor on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 An extra hour or two of good rates can make the difference between 'yeah' and 'meh'. Congrats 290 corridor on the RGEM. Could be another 2" or so at 1"/hr rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS is still pretty weak though with the initial WAA fronto-band for SNE...its slightly better than the last couple runs, but still far weaker than the NAM/RGEM. It wouldn't produce much more than an inch or so of snow. I'd lean toward the others right now, but wouldn't place 100% weight on them. So I think 2-4 is a decent call for pike region northward near NH border...higher amounts of that range the further north you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Rgem is 2-3 here . Better than nothing . Hopefully we see that trend of colder and stronger high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS is still pretty weak though with the initial WAA fronto-band for SNE...its slightly better than the last couple runs, but still far weaker than the NAM/RGEM. It wouldn't produce much more than an inch or so of snow. I'd lean toward the others right now, but wouldn't place 100% weight on them. So I think 2-4 is a decent call for pike region northward near NH border...higher amounts of that range the further north you are. Yeah--the GFS does not build excitement for a wintry outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 An extra hour or two of good rates can make the difference between 'yeah' and 'meh'. Congrats 290 corridor on the RGEM. I think you mean 190? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I think you mean 190? You would be correct. Cut me some slack--it's been 12 years since I lived in Wormtown. 31.0/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's weak sauce but there nonetheless... The NAM picks it up more depicted in the QPF, but the mid level does offer a nod to its solution. It's regarding about a 4 hour ANA window, just post fropa. I'd watch for some crashing thickness/flashiness with light rain over to light snow later Sunday evening. The NAMs had this every cycle -- don't have a lot of on-going faith in that guidance source at this time, but most guidance has a 500mb jet streak riding up west of the baroclinic axis Sunday night, and it "could" expand some lagging. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFs totally lost that 1040 high...i'm therefore revising my area to 1-2 inches of garbage then the launch begins. Net gain of a coating to maybe 1/2 an inch. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFs totally lost that 1040 high...i'm therefore revising my area to 1-2 inches of garbage then the launch begins. Net gain of a coating to maybe 1/2 an inch. Better than nothing. not sure there will be a "net gain" of anything, but that would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Lack of any commentary after the brief GFS feedback is a little disconcerting. Any thoughts based on GGEM/EC for this system before the blowtorch that comes through on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 That was my original call, but it looked pretty bleak yesteray.the euro wxbell weenie snow maps had 6" at lwm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 not sure there will be a "net gain" of anything, but that would be nice Some of the contents of any snowplowed piles may survive the torch, but even that is at risk now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Lack of any commentary after the brief GFS feedback is a little disconcerting. Any thoughts based on GGEM/EC for this system before the blowtorch that comes through on Sunday? Euro looked decent, probably closer to the NAM/RGEM than the GFS for the front end snows. I'm not sure even the interior can avoid a 6 hour torch though on SW winds after FROPA. We don't really advect the good cold in until Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Euro looked decent, probably closer to the NAM/RGEM than the GFS for the front end snows. I'm not sure even the interior can avoid a 6 hour torch though on SW winds after FROPA. We don't really advect the good cold in until Sunday night. Thanks--hopefully we'll get enough front end that we're not staring at brown grass when all is said and done. But, rain and six hours of 55* will certainly damage the wintry appeal. 29.7/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z Nam is a little colder this run, Pretty good front end thump and a prolonged frozen look definitely up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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