Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 NAM Bufkit around KRUM, +7 warm nose but -4 at the surface.4 snow .37 frzrn .33 sleet. 1.17 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 It's so close, razor's edge really. I expect it to be rain, but it won't be very far inland where we could have trouble. PWM is like +1 at the surface. I haven't looked hard up there, but just a cursory glance looked like a lot of sleet. That cold shot tonight sets the stage of those temps below 950 not wanting to warm much. maybe even 900 for a time. But, if the NAM is too warm, all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The 13km GFS looks snowy for ctrl NH too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I haven't looked hard up there, but just a cursory glance looked like a lot of sleet. That cold shot tonight sets the stage of those temps below 950 not wanting to warm much. maybe even 900 for a time. But, if the NAM is too warm, all bets are off. Some pretty large inversions showing up in the soundings I'm checking out. Just a little concerning to see so many hovering around 32 at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I would take sleet over freezing rain anytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 NAM Bufkit around KRUM, +7 warm nose but -4 at the surface. Did KRUM used to have an ASOS or an observer at one point? It's one of those stations you can get data for on a model run, but it doesn't have obs, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 All the models keying in on White Mts Western Maine JP now, Wildcat area looks prime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Some pretty large inversions showing up in the soundings I'm checking out. Just a little concerning to see so many hovering around 32 at the surface. The meso models like Will mentioned are developing a little meso low too. That's sort of an eyebrow raiser since that could pull low level cold back south to cstl NH and ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Did KRUM used to have an ASOS or an observer at one point? It's one of those stations you can get data for on a model run, but it doesn't have obs, lol. I think we used to have an AWOS there. It still has a synoptic code ID and everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I think we used to have an AWOS there. It still has a synoptic code ID and everything. It was a manned site. I think they went defunct when we switched over from SA to METAR obs on 7/1/96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Down here, it looks like ti could rip sleet for a couple hours before going to ZR...the sounding is pretty cold in the lower levels even after that for a few hours longer, but I've noticed (and this is also in some old antiquated techniques) once the max temp in the warm layer gets above roughly 3-4C, then sleet is very difficult to produce, even with a really cold lower 100mb. I'm guessing the water droplets warm up enough to the point where they are difficult to refreeze into ice pellets...probably once they completely lose any remnant frozen core, it gets much tougher. Thanks for that because it is very informative for a weather weenie trying to learn the dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I would take sleet over freezing rain anytime Torn really, sleet will ensure a net gain but freezing rain is one of my favorite weather events despite the potential damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Weenie Ray has left the building Fact: Mike was not complaining in that earlier post Not opinion Yea, Mike doesn't complain. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Water Vapor looks fairly robust right now. I still think we get a good front end thump, timing of mid-level warmth surge will be a nowcast and make or break snow forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Congrats mpm on the warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Looks like a quick changeover from snow to rain here on the coast. Winds might be a factor, but my guess is on a SSW wind any southerly winds likely brings an inversion with it. So maybe gusts to 50mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm thinking minimal snow really anywhere along and south of the pike. That mid level warmth surges in quick and It will be tough the further southwest you are. I think N ORH county, berks, ne ma have the best shot at 2-3" before a changeover. Going to be a lot of pelting for some as others have mentioned. Low level cold will try to hang on but the mid levels will not be denied. Maybe an inch in Boston if were lucky I'm thinking. Some of those elevated interior areas I mentioned earlier might not even achieve as much as they think. Could be some toasters if people don't prepare themselves. Going to be a lot like the other sloppy events we have had this winter involving the kitchen sink. 850T might look to be subzero with qpf falling but there may be sneaky warm layers at other levels that arrive early with a bad attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Looks like about 2 inches of quick thump here..then hours and hours of sleet..a little zr then washed away . Better to have had and lost than to never have had at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Looks like about 2 inches of quick thump here..then hours and hours of sleet..a little zr then washed away . Better to have had and lost than to never have had at all.I'll take the under.. it will be close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 NAM brings the torch well inland tomorrow. Mid-50s right up to I-84. Still looks like some fun tonight before though. I'll go with 1.5" SN/IP for Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Congrats mpm on the warning Curious that they have it up for 3-5 and what looks like up to .3 of ice if both p-types were to play out. Isn't warning criteria for ice .5"? Hopefully, we'll have the ground covered after the warmth and rain on Sunday. Pretty confident that will be the case in Hampshire Hamden and much of ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yea, Mike doesn't complain. Gotcha. You won't let it goSticking with 2-3 here of snow/sleet combo Swiss cheese will be left Enjoy your crappy system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'll take the under.. it will be close! Precip coming in so fast atmosphere doesn't have time to warm enough aloft. Snow will be in here 2-3:00 today..If it held off till after dark I'd go under 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Curious that they have it up for 3-5 and what looks like up to .3 of ice if both p-types were to play out. Isn't warning criteria for ice .5"? Hopefully, we'll have the ground covered after the warmth and rain on Sunday. Pretty confident that will be the case in Hampshire Hamden and much of ORH county. Look at it this way: If you get 3" of snow, that's 50% of warning criteria. If you get 0.25" of ice, that's also 50% of warning criteria. Add the two together and that's 100%, and you can call the entire event a "winter storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Look at it this way: If you get 3" of snow, that's 50% of warning criteria. If you get 0.25" of ice, that's also 50% of warning criteria. Add the two together and that's 100%, and you can call the entire event a "winter storm." Gotcha--I didn't realize it was calculated that way. 17.8/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 WSW for all of Franklin Co. We'll take. 18/16. Decent cold air drain overnight considering it was 28F at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Look at it this way: If you get 3" of snow, that's 50% of warning criteria. If you get 0.25" of ice, that's also 50% of warning criteria. Add the two together and that's 100%, and you can call the entire event a "winter storm." 3" of snow plus .25" ice is fairly high impact in terms of secondary roads and snow removal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 3" of snow plus .25" ice is fairly high impact in terms of secondary roads and snow removal. Could also play the card that there hasn't been too much winter weather the past three weeks, so the public is sort of out of the loop as far as winter driving and preparedness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Tip was forecasting the rain to change back to snow tomorrow night..Any shot that actually happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Dang cold out there this morning. 12.0F attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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