N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Natural Gas sure did tank in last 3 days, A 10% fall from Friday is just crazy. Hopefully this isn't the rare time the LR euro actually guesses right I think Scott instead of playing psychologist to the weenies, just acknowledge the concerns, ya things took a turn for the worse this weekend in a ugly way, we don't know if it will stick but the trend sucked w a capital S. That doesn't mean winter is over, and the LR is a roll of dice anyway, but again 99% know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 lol, Well i will pretty much have bare ground after grinch day so that 25" is not doing me much good, I would rather see a cold period before anymore frozen precip but will deal with the hand we get dealt Man, ever since about 11/25, when sne was modeled to see a pretty significant early season snow event @ about 48 hours lead, everything...and I do mean everything, has trended as $hitty as possible. Makes me long for the days of whacking it to SAI graphs. Things were so simple then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Natural Gas sure did tank in last 3 days, A 10% fall from Friday is just crazy. Hopefully this isn't the rare time the LR euro actually guesses right None of which will be translated into lower gas prices for consumers in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 If we finish December with less than 4-5 inches in Boston seasonally theough 1/10 we're ratting. Yea, I said that last night...if we mince through the first week of January with blue ballz in tact, things need to be reevaluated. I'm not sure about a ratter because the backend can be bountiful in el Ninos, but I think we will definitvely know that 1977, 1978, or 2005 are not walking through that door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Not sure if to this is a bad sign but the birds were chirping like it was a mid April morning when I left for work today. There were chirps from species I normally don't hear from until spring. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Not sure if to this is a bad sign but the birds were chirping like it was a mid April morning when I left for work today. There were chirps from species I normally don't hear from until spring. Odd. I heard that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 I had some good laughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Natural Gas sure did tank in last 3 days, A 10% fall from Friday is just crazy. Hopefully this isn't the rare time the LR euro actually guesses right I think Scott instead of playing psychologist to the weenies, just acknowledge the concerns, ya things took a turn for the worse this weekend in a ugly way, we don't know if it will stick but the trend sucked w a capital S. That doesn't mean winter is over, and the LR is a roll of dice anyway, but again 99% know this. I thought I did around 7 this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 lol, SAD for short. Good weenie acronym. You've heard of seasonal affective disorder before, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 My fault, we bought a new loader this past spring., sitting in the shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I heard that. i put it on the same level as fat squirrels, plentiful acorns, and the stripes on those brown and black caterpillars. but i heard it too this morning and admit it was depressing after reviewing the overnight runs. either way, still not worried about the weeks/months ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Natural Gas sure did tank in last 3 days, A 10% fall from Friday is just crazy. Hopefully this isn't the rare time the LR euro actually guesses right I think Scott instead of playing psychologist to the weenies, just acknowledge the concerns, ya things took a turn for the worse this weekend in a ugly way, we don't know if it will stick but the trend sucked w a capital S. That doesn't mean winter is over, and the LR is a roll of dice anyway, but again 99% know this. Well its kind of hard to express concern when every single time we do it, peopel start having meltdowns and misinterprete the information. Why is it so difficult to convey uncertainty to the masses? The reason is because nobody wants probabilistic forecasts...weenies want deterministic forecasts...and their mood changes with every deterministic outcome from run to run. It's not really discussing science at that point, it's discussing deterministic outcomes that don't have a lot of meaning when they are 13 days out...even an ensemble mean. If you cannot successfully illustrate the uncertainty in even the enesemble mean, they are just like deterministic OP solutions to the masses. I think this is a quick cliff notes version of affairs this morning are: 1. The pattern is still going to change after 12/25 2. The period between 12/30 - 1/4 still looks pretty favorable for some snow chances 3. The period beyond 1/4 looks less cold today than it did yesterday or the day before 4. The period beyond 1/4 is very uncertain due to some conflicting signals in the MJO 5. The period beyond 1/4 may look colder again over the next couple runs...the uncertainty is high 6. This tells us nothing about what a period like 1/10-1/20 might bring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Meanwhile, the GFS isn't half bad through 204 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 My fault, we bought a new loader this past spring., sitting in the shop. I fixed my snow blower...my fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Pretty much, Will. I will also add there seems to be an odd lack of question asking and more interpretation of what mets said. Why not ask questions directly? Hey Will, do you think January will be mild? Hey Scooter, so what does that mean after the 5th? Sometimes we can't communicate every detail given time constraints, so by all means ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well its kind of hard to express concern when every single time we do it, peopel start having meltdowns and misinterprete the information. Why is it so difficult to convey uncertainty to the masses? The reason is because nobody wants probabilistic forecasts...weenies want deterministic forecasts...and their mood changes with every deterministic outcome from run to run. It's not really discussing science at that point, it's discussing deterministic outcomes that don't have a lot of meaning when they are 13 days out...even an ensemble mean. If you cannot successfully illustrate the uncertainty in even the enesemble mean, they are just like deterministic OP solutions to the masses. I think this is a quick cliff notes version of affairs this morning are: 1. The pattern is still going to change after 12/25 2. The period between 12/30 - 1/4 still looks pretty favorable for some snow chances 3. The period beyond 1/4 looks less cold today than it did yesterday or the day before 4. The period beyond 1/4 is very uncertain due to some conflicting signals in the MJO 5. The period beyond 1/4 may look colder again over the next couple runs...the uncertainty is high 6. This tells us nothing about what a period like 1/10-1/20 might bring Thanks for the distinction between probabilistic and deterministic. The constant demand for the latter is exhausting and confusing. What seems clear is that we are going into January in a way that is quite different from the way we are ending December (and for that matter, the entire month). Chances for snow are pretty good. "less cold" is not the same as raging warm. Lets take it from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's Seasonal Affective Disorder I think he did it intentionally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 OK, question: Why does the period from 12/30 look good for snow? What does "less cold" after 1/4 actually mean in probable sensory temps? Are there any (somewhat) reliable analogs to what we are seeing this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well this deterministic run of the GFS is optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 And there's always today's op GFS to ease long range fears or at least not add to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 OK, question: Why does the period from 12/30 look good for snow? What does "less cold" after 1/4 actually mean in probable sensory temps? Are there any (somewhat) reliable analogs to what we are seeing this year? 1) The period around 12/30 should have sufficient cold in place. It looks like a pretty deep trough carves out over the SW US and a s/w ejects from it as it rides along the gulf coast and moves northeast. 2) Well less cold probably means both longevity and the intensity of it. However, I'm not sure how one is rating that or comparing it to. Also, it still could be pretty chilly relative to avg regardless of what happens. 3) Personally I am not aware of any real comparable analogs. Some other might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 1) The period around 12/30 should have sufficient cold in place. It looks like a pretty deep trough carves out over the SW US and a s/w ejects from it as it rides along the gulf coast and moves northeast. 2) Well less cold probably means both longevity and the intensity of it. However, I'm not sure how one is rating that or comparing it to. Also, it still could be pretty chilly relative to avg regardless of what happens. 3) Personally I am not aware of any real comparable analogs. Some other might. The GFS certainly looks like maybe there's good cold beyond 1/04/15 in its latest OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Geezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 If we finish December with less than 4-5 inches in Boston seasonally theough 1/10 we're ratting. Man oh man, something about that phrase makes me chuckle. I think it reminds me of 2006-7 (my last winter in Boston) when we kissed 70 in January ... you were tossing that term around left and right, and I would occasionally see a dead rat behind my building and think, "Jerry warned me about this" (people say NYC has it bad, but certain pockets in Boston were some of the rattiest I've seen). Of course, that winter turned on a dime WRT cold but never delivered in the snow department in E Ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Unhealthy and unreadable . Poor mets . Give them a break guys. Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Unhealthy and unreadable . Poor mets . Give them a break guys. Please Days and days of infighting... if you want a break, head over to the NYC forum. It's all roses up in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Thinking I will end up with under 25% of possible sunshine for month of December. Gray and boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Man oh man, something about that phrase makes me chuckle. I think it reminds me of 2006-7 (my last winter in Boston) when we kissed 70 in January ... you were tossing that term around left and right, and I would occasionally see a dead rat behind my building and think, "Jerry warned me about this" (people say NYC has it bad, but certain pockets in Boston were some of the rattiest I've seen). Of course, that winter turned on a dime WRT cold but never delivered in the snow department in E Ma. There were certainly worse winters, though when all was said and done. That winter was not a 2011-'12, for instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 The GFS certainly looks like maybe there's good cold beyond 1/04/15 in its latest OP run. What it did was just continuously build the EPO ridge in AK in a prime spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 There were certainly worse winters, though when all was said and done. That winter was not a 2011-'12, for instance. For me, 11-12 was absolute rock bottom. Biggest snowfall =3.9" that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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