mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 lol...am I in the right dimension this morning? I never used "epic"...but you just did to me. Anyways...I feel confident up here wrt snow going forward. Even an early Dec pattern repeat gets me some decent chances with climo norms continuing to drop. That is my gut too...fortunately we just need some cold in Canada and shortwaves from either stream up here. It will snow. Hoping to get some before or during NYE ( my birthday). CAD ftw tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I would like to get the -NAO at some point. I still believe that is very important in an El Niño. The base pattern has been low heights over the Davis straight. But even an east based -NAO is quite useful if we have a decent PAC. That was essentially the pattern in Feb 2003. It helps lock the cold in SE canada more versus further northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's funny how happy people would be if they saw the Feb 2010 500mb pattern. And look what that did. Just too many nuances to determine snowfall so far out. All you can do is comment on the hemispheric pattern which for the most part can shed light on the potential...but the final outcome can be quite different than what you first thought.I was thinking back about your post yesterday regarding all of the indices. The atmosphere likes to serve up some BB humble pie from time to time. Everything lined up for cold and snowy. Maybe the 2nd half still will, but I think some of those LR guys are beginning to sweat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 What a **** show...had to slap myself a few times to make sure I was a wake when i saw the end of the 11-15 day yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's funny how happy people would be if they saw the Feb 2010 500mb pattern. And look what that did. Just too many nuances to determine snowfall so far out. All you can do is comment on the hemispheric pattern which for the most part can shed light on the potential...but the final outcome can be quite different than what you first thought. There is some good work on how our brains create expectations which then alter our perceptions. A lot of that goes on on this board partcicularly among some non-mets (like me). We have been focuses on this period of Dec 21-25 for like 10 days already so it feel endless. I think things will very different along about Thursday eve/Friday morning, when I expect to see at least one realistic moderate snow for most of New England in the <4 day realm, and a decent set up for another in the <7 day realm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 I would like to get the -NAO at some point. I still believe that is very important in an El Niño. The base pattern has been low heights over the Davis straight. But even an east based -NAO is quite useful if we have a decent PAC. That was essentially the pattern in Feb 2003. It helps lock the cold in SE canada more versus further northeast. Agree 100%. Too bad the Santa bomb is more like a Santa bottle rocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 You aren't adding anything of substance with posts like these. You honestly have no idea what the rest of winter will bring. If you have some actual meteorological insight as to why it will suck other than "too many things should have happened by now that didn't", then bring it on. Otherwise we should avoid filling this thread with emotional hyperbole about a crappy 3 weeks in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 BTW... I am just kidding when I reference 2006-2007. I'm just hoping for similar results as far as back end of winter snows. Of course, earlier would be better, and a good March. I can barely forecast what will happen in 2 days, never mind 2 weeks or 2 months out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Agree 100%. Too bad the Santa bomb is more like a Santa bottle rocket. Didn't you tell me you didn't think it really mattered for us, but may make it more hostile for the ma? I knew that bomb being a dud would have dire consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I would like to get the -NAO at some point. I still believe that is very important in an El Niño. The base pattern has been low heights over the Davis straight. But even an east based -NAO is quite useful if we have a decent PAC. That was essentially the pattern in Feb 2003. It helps lock the cold in SE canada more versus further northeast. So if the EPO ridge sets up a bit west that still provides cold but increases the risk of cutters, yes? A little -NAO, just a little, would be enough to shove the storm track a bit south so that all of New England gets good snow chances, is that right? Is there any other mechanism besides the NAO that stops the cutters? I know we don't need too much of that up here but I am concerned about my buddies in SNE and NMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Didn't you tell me you didn't think it really mattered for us, but may make it more hostile for the ma? I knew that bomb being a dud would have dire consequences. At the time it seemed that the weaker solutions were still giving out a weaker -NAO. This was in combo with signs of a weak SE ridge, so yeah I didn't it would matter. But it's pretty much a +NAO now. Different than even 4 days ago. The one good thing is that it's a +NAO that resides partially over Quebec so the cold is nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Do we even have a chance for a nice cold shot in the LR, so it at least feels like deep winter? I'm going to be in a deep bout of Seasonal Depression Disorder after Christmas . All my winter activity gear is starting to gather a heavy coating of dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 That was in response to our NASCAR buddy Jeff. Usually I have to post a pic of him crashing, but he had a good post that all of the weenies should abide to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Agree 100%. Too bad the Santa bomb is more like a Santa bottle rocket.I copyrighted #santabum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 At the time it seemed that the weaker solutions were still giving out a weaker -NAO. This was in combo with signs of a weak SE ridge, so yeah I didn't it would matter. But it's pretty much a +NAO now. Different than even 4 days ago. The one good thing is that it's a +NAO that resides partially over Quebec so the cold is nearby. I understand. I just had that sinking feeling then that bomb depiction waned into an unceremonious frontal passage. The pattern, on paper, is no longer epic, but who knows.....2005 wasn't epic on paper until March. I think the healthiest course of action would be to lower expectations a bit, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Do we even have a chance for a nice cold shot in the LR, so it at least feels like deep winter? I'm going to be in a deep bout of Seasonal Depression Disorder after Christmas . All my winter activity gear is starting to gather a heavy coating of dustwow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I understand. I just had that sinking feeling then that bomb depiction waned into an unceremonious frontal passage. The pattern, on paper, is no longer epic, but who knows.....2005 wasn't epic on paper until March. I think the healthiest course of action would be to lower expectations a bit, though. one day at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's Seasonal Affective Disorder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's Seasonal Affective Disorder Snow Affective Disorder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 honestly just a few days ago people were worried about cold highs and suppression so yes a lot can change quickly in the weather department. I'm really not crazy about the latest MJO signal if the other teleconnections don't line up better but there is still a lot of disagreement going on within the model camps. Certainly the European model teleconnections forecast was a cause for concern but the European has been dreadful at times in the long term. I think we need to take a deep breath here before rushing to too quick of a judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 wow May have to close the tobin, Its not like nobody knew the dec looked like crap and outside of getting lucky on some of these there was not going to be much frozen precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 honestly just a few days ago people were worried about cold highs and suppression so yes a lot can change quickly in the weather department. I'm really not crazy about the latest MJO signal if the other teleconnections don't line up better but there is still a lot of disagreement going on within the model camps. Certainly the European model teleconnections forecast was a cause for concern but the European has been dreadful at times in the long term. I think we need to take a deep breath here before rushing to too quick of a judgement. LOL, there might have been one or two people. I know myself and other said that is the least of the concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 LOL, there might have been one or two people. I know myself and other said that is the least of the concerns. yes you have been very steady and consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 May have to close the tobin, Its not like nobody knew the dec looked like crap and outside of getting lucky on some of these there was not going to be much frozen precip The anxst has nothing to do with December, but with the ramifications that the Grinch morphing into Grinchette has on the NAO and January. It's also a little easier to be calm when you have 25" of snow on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 honestly just a few days ago people were worried about cold highs and suppression so yes a lot can change quickly in the weather department. I'm really not crazy about the latest MJO signal if the other teleconnections don't line up better but there is still a lot of disagreement going on within the model camps. Certainly the European model teleconnections forecast was a cause for concern but the European has been dreadful at times in the long term. I think we need to take a deep breath here before rushing to too quick of a judgement. Up thru yesterday the NP was out of phase with the MJO, and that was offering some hope for the beleaguered winter zealots whose bravery in patience could not be more underscored... The reason why? Because Phase 3-early 6 MJO wave spaces = find other hobby ... particularly when the NP is IN phase with it. It has to do with constructive -vs- deconstructive wave interference. Constructive is when that the MJO is in sync, and the two then become very predominate in dictating the character of the circulation medium ... pretty much all over this half of the Northern Hemisphere. Deconstructive is when the MJO is not in sync, and the two can tend to mute the other's factorization in guiding the character of the circulation medium ... pretty much all over this half of the Northern Hemisphere. Up thru yesterday, the WPO was slipping negative, and the EPO was very negative entering the middle and extended ranges, according to the GEFs derived index values. That was a deconstructive interference pattern wrt to the MJO, and would argue that the MJO would be less effectual in modulating the flow given to deconstruction muting it's influence. As of last night, however, things violently changed... I am actually at a loss as to how/why that is the case, but the CDC WPO is now positive throughout, and the EPO has only a fainted blip/semblance of the negative signal in maintained for days -- quickly recovering positive out in time. It's like all 20 members (or whatever number of them there are) of the GEFs just up and abruptly broke continuity, in a large way at that. Challenging the veracity of that aside ... if so, the MJO is then more of a constructive interference, and the two may herald a period of warmth S of the 50th parallel across N/A. I was toying with a supposition ... perhaps the MJO is very strong, and is actually overpowering the NP - not impossible. Typically, ..abrupt continuity shifts in any single member or operational guidance type warrants a degree of incredulity, pending some further runs continue to support said change. ...Don't know about that, though, when EVERY member does it unilaterally like that... Huh. In any event, for winter weather enthusiasm ... things do appear a bit more dire over the next two weeks then they did prior to last night's runs. The operation runs/dailies still are attempting to load cold into the Canadian Shield, ...at least for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 yes you have been very steady and consistent. Well I don't mean that...I don't think many were worried about suppression despite a few jokes here and there about the 18z GFS or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The anxst has nothing to do with December, but with the ramifications that the Grinch morphing into Grinchette has on the NAO and January. It's also a little easier to be calm when you have 25" of snow on the season. lol, Well i will pretty much have bare ground after grinch day so that 25" is not doing me much good, I would rather see a cold period before anymore frozen precip but will deal with the hand we get dealt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Snow Affective Disorder. lol, SAD for short. Good weenie acronym. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 If we finish December with less than 4-5 inches in Boston seasonally theough 1/10 we're ratting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It looks like Tip is saying that the pattern change doesn't look so good with the new models. Do the other mets agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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