40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The pattern hasn't even flipped yet, we have two more cutters to go, but the end is in sight. Pissah. The $hit period lasted just over a month. "Good" period, what, 10 days?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think people need to get away from the forum until the smoke clears. There are some bad signs this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 My god that blows to hell. It doesn't look as bad or what we had in December, but it's not epic. Under the umbrella of an overall pattern, the little nuances of whether or not a pattern is snowy, simply can't be determined this far out. We still have the time time before NY and into the first half of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 2006-2007 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 C'mon guys. Ease off the nooses. Nobody is calling for anything close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The difference in January is sne could be like NNE in December and pick up a decent amount of snow in the relaxation period with the gradient, the end of the euro ensembles showed how that could be done with some gradient and most of on the right side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The pattern hasn't even flipped yet, we have two more cutters to go, but the end is in sight. Pissah. The $hit period lasted just over a month. "Good" period, what, 10 days?? Always bad when you start talking relaxation in the pattern and a decent one hasn't even started. Some stats Bluewave was throwing out was not good for nyc...best was 04-05... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 We'll have an interesting discussion tonight. My fears of a ratter are getting a little stronger. I'd still be on record of a decent winter but it's just starting to get that smell. I think we'll know by 1/10. Embrace the rat. It's the only rat we've got. 28.4/27, sn- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 2006-2007 redux No way. That was an unmitigated torch. The saving grace is that a less than optimal pattern can be far more prolific in January, than December. More margin for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 The difference in January is sne could be like NNE in December and pick up a decent amount of snow in the relaxation period with the gradient, the end of the euro ensembles showed how that could be done with some gradient and most of on the right side of it. Yeah like I said...you can't determine the nuances and timing of things, only the overall look. It's not terrible, but it looks like models are really all over the place in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 No way. That was an unmitigated torch. The saving grace is that a less than optimal pattern can be far more prolific in January, than December. More margin for error. Yeah... the temps that December were terrible. Big flip mid Jan though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 IF we get to about Jan 9 or 10 without a decent snowstorm we are probably in some trouble but I wouldn't jump off the bridge yet It's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Always bad when you start talking relaxation in the pattern and a decent one hasn't even started. Some stats Bluewave was throwing out was not good for nyc...best was 04-05... We just have to wait and see. 2004-'05 was my second bes season on record and if you had showed me the seasonal H5 composite, I would have guessed it was a decent season. No way was that an optimal set up. Link his post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 IF we get to about Jan 9 or 10 without a decent snowstorm we are probably in some trouble but I wouldn't jump off the bridge yet It's still early. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah... the temps that December were terrible. Big flip mid Jan though That season featured the vortex of death over AK, too. Different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 oy! if we keep canada cold enough we will get snow i would think...at least up here. But how distressing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 We just have to wait and see. 2004-'05 was my second bes season on record and if you had showed me the seasonal H5 composite, I would have guessed it was a decent season. No way was that an optimal set up. Link his post? I'm on my phone not sure how to share link, here is the post. Per bluewave, obv those stats might be better for sne El Nino Decembers since 1980 when there was no strong -AO December signal and the NYC seasonal snowfall. 82-83.........27.2 86-87.........23.1 87-88.........19.1 91-92.........12.6 94-95..........11.8 97-98..........5.5 04-05..........41.0 06-07..........12.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm on my phone not sure how to share link, here is the post. Per bluewave, obv those stats might be better for sne El Nino Decembers since 1980 when there was no strong -AO December signal and the NYC seasonal snowfall. 82-83.........27.2 86-87.........23.1 87-88.........19.1 91-92.........12.6 94-95..........11.8 97-98..........5.5 04-05..........41.0 06-07..........12.4 The '86-87 and '87-'88 winters were good in SNE...and '97-'98 wasn't nearly as bad up here as in the M.A....but those early 90s winters were awful. Don't see a similar N PAC pattern to those winters though, so I'm not thinking we get that type of repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The '86-87 and '87-'88 winters were good in SNE...and '97-'98 wasn't nearly as bad up here as in the M.A....but those early 90s winters were awful. Don't see a similar N PAC pattern to those winters though, so I'm not thinking we get that type of repeat. it would be nice not to see a repeat of that, although 04-05 was terrific down here. I just hope to keep the cold air in Canada...losing that at the start of December really set us back a bit. Along with other stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 What are mets thoughts on the snow event Sunday/Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 What are mets thoughts on the snow event Sunday/Monday? Meh...anafrontal event without much cold air. I'm not high on it. IF I was up in NNE, I'd be more optimistic. I've liked the one behind it better for a while...this 12/28 event kind of just appeared a day or two ago and it's before we get a good airmass in here. But can't rule out something from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Meh...anafrontal event without much cold air. I'm not high on it. IF I was up in NNE, I'd be more optimistic. I've liked the one behind it better for a while...this 12/28 event kind of just appeared a day or two ago and it's before we get a good airmass in here. But can't rule out something from it. So the dates might be 30-31? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I may be able to get some major yardwork in Fri/Sat. There's branches and twigs everywhere from Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I may be able to get some major yardwork in Fri/Sat. There's branches and twigs everywhere from Thanksgiving. If it's in the low 50's you may even be able to catch some sun on the neck and face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 So the dates might be 30-31? Yeah I'd be more optimistic about the event near 12/31. But honestly, I feel pretty silly talking about events 9 days away. Impatience is really building in here and folks just need to understand that snow doesn't come immediately all the time in the pattern flip. I'm sure we'll have plenty of chances in January too. The relaxing PAC (which looks more like a transient reshuffle) doesn't really bother me as much as some others on here...our climo is getting pretty cold by then and as long as it isn't an all-out death vortex up there, we can get some snow events. That's kind of what happened in the first half of Jan 2005...we never really flipped the pattern that winter until around 1/15...but we got some snow events before that in an active (but not too cold) pattern...and it actually looks colder than that couple weeks even with the "relaxation". In addition, the relaxation has been really volatile on the model guidance, so take it all with a grain of salt anyway beyond about D10-11 on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm on my phone not sure how to share link, here is the post. Per bluewave, obv those stats might be better for sne El Nino Decembers since 1980 when there was no strong -AO December signal and the NYC seasonal snowfall. 82-83.........27.2 86-87.........23.1 87-88.........19.1 91-92.........12.6 94-95..........11.8 97-98..........5.5 04-05..........41.0 06-07..........12.4 I found that. Funny he mentioned 1986-'87 because I mentioned to the sne contigent that I was really taking to a couple of new analogs after seeing how December had evolved....the two were 1986-'87 and I think the other was 1965-'66, but I don't have the data in front of me. Will would know....huge January for snowfall. This was part of my rationale for going really big on January with my seasonal update yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks great for winter to start the New Year. Looks below normal for a while. LR MJO is voodoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The '86-87 and '87-'88 winters were good in SNE...and '97-'98 wasn't nearly as bad up here as in the M.A....but those early 90s winters were awful. Don't see a similar N PAC pattern to those winters though, so I'm not thinking we get that type of repeat. You can disregard '91 '94 and '06.....the Pacific is much different. 1982 featured the strongest Nino on record and 1997 the strongest. I think what we are left with is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 I found that. Funny he mentioned 1986-'87 because I mentioned to the sne contigent that I was really taking to a couple of new analogs after seeing how December had evolved....the two were 1986-'87 and I think the other was 1965-'66, but I don't have the data in front of me. Will would know....huge January for snowfall. This was part of my rationale for going really big on January with my seasonal update yesterday. Jan '87 had some great coastal storms. I remember those as a kid. One cut right through the barrier island off of Chatham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks great for winter to start the New Year. Looks below normal for a while. LR MJO is voodoo. It's not voodoo, it drove December's mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.