butterfish55 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Haha time to take a break MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Man that's a weird interference pattern... Just take this 18z oper. GFS run: out there around 120 to 144 hours, it has established a rather classic looking 50/50 blocking low, and associated general train-wreck appeal extending from central to eastern Canada, yet .. still manages to take an important mid level impulse WEST ?! oh k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The GFS has had a system though around the 31st the past few days...some runs it's looked warmer than others. 12z GFS took it over New York State.After the Grinch storm. If new Years is another cutter, going to be a lot of salty people in here, and I dont really blame them.Hopefully we score something between now and when I head back to work on the 5th. Even last night and today was meh. Didn't even come close to getting an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 After the Grinch storm. If new Years is another cutter, going to be a lot of salty people in here, and I dont really blame them. Hopefully we score something between now and when I head back to work on the 5th. Even last night and today was meh. Didn't even come close to getting an inch I hope people can be mature enough not to be controlled by the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I hope people can be mature enough not to be controlled by the weather. Probably not. I'll be honest...if I make it through the first week of January without a plowable event, I'm probably going to come unhinged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I hope people can be mature enough not to be controlled by the weather.I dont think anyone really is, but frustration that 2 major winter holidays feature warm rains and December didnt feature a plowable event, that may cause a bit of aggravation* if it plays out like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Ray smash!!! It's just depressing on here sometimes. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 18z GFS has days and days of frigid bone locking cold with no snow seemingly forever. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 No joke, from about D5 to D15, ...10 straight days of at or below freezing and no precipitation. Cold desert. Actually kind of hard to do that at this particular lat/lon... I'd like to see that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 No joke, from about D5 to D15, ...10 straight days of at or below freezing and no precipitation. Cold desert. Actually kind of hard to do that at this particular lat/lon... I'd like to see that happen. Welcome to last January up here LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Welcome to last January up here LOL. Right - zactly! ...although...I didn't think the winter was all that eventful for anyone east of the App at that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 pants tent for James? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Welcome to last January up here LOL. We had plenty of precip, just in the form of rain. Between the rainers was bone chilling and dry, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Probably not. I'll be honest...if I make it through the first week of January without a plowable event, I'm probably going to come unhinged. 18z GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 It's now official, Winter has begun! Legit griping can now commence. I do believe there is a storm out there that's not modelled yet between now and spring. Relax, accentuate the positive and keep the negative to self... or at least try to keep it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yup, at 6:03pm the sun hit it's southern most point and now the sun angle starts it's March upward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 I like Ray and Kevin meltdowns. They make cutters so much more enjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I don't melt anymore. Really kept all emotions in check. I like this cutter from the wind damage aspect and no snowpack to lose. Timing sucks on xmas eve though. But I also know at this time next week we are in middle if a snowstorm.. So it makes it ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I don't melt anymore. Really kept all emotions in check. I like this cutter from the wind damage aspect and no snowpack to lose. Timing sucks on xmas eve though. But I also know at this time next week we are in middle if a snowstorm.. So it makes it okOh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 CarverWx melted in the pre grinch thread. I'm keeping score. Decent look overall. Should be a fun gtg tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I have faith in the SAI and OPI. Correlations to teleconnectors are strong enough that I'm not worried any this winter being cold and hopefully snowy. It's going to snow a lot this winter. I promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 I have faith in the SAI and OPI. Correlations to teleconnectors are strong enough that I'm not worried any this winter being cold and hopefully snowy. It's going to snow a lot this winter. I promise. It's a correction that has to do with the AO, not how snowy our winters are. The biggest correlation of all states it is very difficult to get another 60"+ winter for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hey scott do you think the ensembles are too quick in breaking down the -EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I have faith in the SAI and OPI. Correlations to teleconnectors are strong enough that I'm not worried any this winter being cold and hopefully snowy. It's going to snow a lot this winter. I promise. I think the solar activity, QBO, and La Niña lag are causing more problems than anyone ever anticipated. This is similar to 2010-11 so far in that despite being in one phase of an ENSO the entire atmosphere and pattern seems to be behaving like the one we just came out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 About to enter a phenomenal next 60 days of winter and folks still trying to find ways why it's going to bust warm with little snow. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think the solar activity, QBO, and La Niña lag are causing more problems than anyone ever anticipated. This is similar to 2010-11 so far in that despite being in one phase of an ENSO the entire atmosphere and pattern seems to be behaving like the one we just came out of. It just goes to show you that there are a lot of variables in weather. The pattern driving snow cover is just a piece of the puzzle. In a way this is good because we as humans get too cocky thinking we can treat everything as an index. It's nice when Mother Nature gives us a good fook you to some conventional thinking. I do think a strat warming event may occur in February, but it's not a lock right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hey scott do you think the ensembles are too quick in breaking down the -EPO? They probably are to a point, but that said..I don't see a complete breakdown right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 About to enter a phenomenal next 60 days of winter and folks still trying to find ways why it's going to bust warm with little snow. Ugh We can't know that and we won't til about January 15th, even our worst winters tend to have a flip cold somewhere between 12/20 and 1/15 it's just that the bad ones generally warm back up after 2 weeks and the good ones don't. If the pattern reverses again in 2-3 weeks I think it's safe to say this one is toast, usually you can safely grab the dominant pattern warm or cold through 1/20 and run with it the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 We can't know that and we won't til about January 15th, even our worst winters tend to have a flip cold somewhere between 12/20 and 1/15 it's just that the bad ones generally warm back up after 2 weeks and the good ones don't. If the pattern reverses again in 2-3 weeks I think it's safe to say this one is toast, usually you can safely grab the dominant pattern warm or cold through 1/20 and run with it the rest of the way. It can reverse and still produce garbage like Jan 2013 did. Snow is a whole other ball game when it comes to patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It can reverse and still produce garbage like Jan 2013 did. Snow is a whole other ball game when it comes to patterns. I'm not sure I would call that a reversal, January 97 was a reversal that did nothing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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