weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 jeebus...relaxation of a pattern that hasn't even gotten here yet . It's happening but like others have said it may or may not be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 and there's always the 18z gfsComical, but nevertheless possible. Feet and feet of meltdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Lol....18z gfs tells me to go fuk myself...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Gfs says pattern change complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Comical, but nevertheless possible. Feet and feet of meltdowns. Did you look at it? It's epically wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Comical, but nevertheless possible. Feet and feet of meltdowns. Are you high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 WTH. I am so confused, I am mobile so maybe something weird is up. Tropicaltidbits looked epic...for the mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Did you look at it? It's epically wintry. Are you high? I think you two are smoking something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I think you two are smoking something. Look at the 500 mb pattern and Canadian temperatures. Good enough for me. I could give a crap if there is no qpf north of nc on an op gfs run. The point is it was the anti pattern relaxation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Look at the 500 mb pattern and Canadian temperatures. Good enough for me. I could give a crap if there is no qpf north of nc on an op gfs run. The point is it was the anti pattern relaxation.Yup, but it also shows it can be an awesome pattern and still easily flop on its face.Hence the feet and feet of meltdowns with each storm in a train of storms that miss in every way imaginable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Screw the surface details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Where I live relaxation is fine, in fact good. Mostly true for you too. We just need normal winter at coldest time of year It's happening but like others have said it may or may not be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 GOA ridge along with -NAO (East based) is prevalent at theend of the run....swweeet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Where I live relaxation is fine, in fact good. Mostly true for you too. We just need normal winter at coldest time of year There are some flags though...at least to me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 I wouldn't worry about suppression at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I wouldn't worry about suppression at the moment.I would worry about cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I would worry about cutterswut? Not with that LR 5h pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 wut? Not with that LR 5h pattern I think he has a point. But if we're lucky they'll be cold swfe if they happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 wut? Not with that LR 5h pattern W/o any upstream blocking any s/w coming out of the plains will amplify enough to at least allow storms to track up the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 W/o any upstream blocking any s/w coming out of the plains will amplify enough to at least allow storms to track up the apps Unless we time them with frigid highs north of us. Very possible with Canada being cold as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 So the GFS op was suppressed and people are worried about cutters. I wish I could see this for myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 So the GFS op was suppressed and people are worried about cutters. I wish I could see this for myself. 18Z GEFS are similar to eps. But the higher heights remove n of ak and a neg EPO stays so I think we can work with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 So the GFS op was suppressed and people are worried about cutters. I wish I could see this for myself.baffled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 A lot of early holiday drinking going on tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Well, the 12z run showed our -NAO vanishing as fast as it came,so the cutter idea isn't totally off the table, although not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 The EC ensembles didn't look too concerning to me anyways. I do see where it could relax briefly. I mean, I did mention a few times that we could have overrunning events which introdce ptype issue. That was the SE ridge thinking popping into my head. But, that's some serious cold in Canada so hopefully we can utilize that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 There is definitely some struggling with the blocking. I took a look athr 300 on the 00z EC ensembles vs hr 288 on the 12z and the 12z was stronger with the EPO, better -NAO too and colder across the conus. Granted that could change, but that was a nice look at that time. The ensemble clusters also are in a bit of a disagreement regarding the SE ridge. But I guess overall I don't see the -EPO breaking down which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 There is definitely some struggling with the blocking. I took a look athr 300 on the 00z EC ensembles vs hr 288 on the 12z and the 12z was stronger with the EPO, better -NAO too and colder across the conus. Granted that could change, but that was a nice look at that time. The ensemble clusters also are in a bit of a disagreement regarding the SE ridge. But I guess overall I don't see the -EPO breaking down which is good.Yea I didn't see what Phil saw at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yea I didn't see what Phil saw at all. I do see what he sees. I don't think he said it was bad, he mentioned how it could work against us and I don't disagree. It looks like almost some sort of a SWFE at the end and then more cold perhaps after it leaves. All I am saying is that it looks decent to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I do see what he sees. I don't think he said it was bad, he mentioned how it could work against us and I don't disagree. It looks like almost some sort of a SWFE at the end and then more cold perhaps after it leaves. All I am saying is that it looks decent to me.I didn't see limited blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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