Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I always thought and will until my dieing day, and proved over and over again, last winter, 2013, 2011, that MJO and tropical forcing is the most overrated misused trendy term being used. Of course it has value but I have witnessed more fails by the brethren who swear by it than successes. It remains very much a difficult forecastable feature. I always take it with a grain of salt when it is brought into the convo especially at low amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Isn't there a different standard for the MJO and positive ENSO. For example the phase 7 this month during a warm ENSO yields a mild pattern versus the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Great graphic by Ant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Just purchased the statospheric warmer app off of play store for my Android, and am now running it. We should be all set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 00z Euro should ease the meltdown the sheep had yesterday. Follow your shepard ski sheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 6z GFS long run looks fantastic for SNE and the mid-Atlantic. That's a trough axis that wouldn't let stuff amplify up to this latitude but would give coastal sections plenty of chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The 00z EURO looks great at hour 240, awesome shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 00z Euro should ease the meltdown the sheep had yesterday. Follow your shepard ski sheep Tell me more you tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Still got to watch the ridge in AK that might retro in early January. This also opens up the door for a major storm. I still think any retro may be replaced by higher heights near the west coast after that towards mid month. You want storms, then you want the battle zone nearby. It also appears we go back to a +NAO, but one like last year that drives cold well into southern Canada. The EC now splits the 50mb vortex over the North Pole keeping a lobe down into Hudson Bay which will probably keep the cold into southern Canada at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Still got to watch the ridge in AK that might retro in early January. This also opens up the door for a major storm. I still think any retro may be replaced by higher heights near the west coast after that towards mid month. You want storms, then you want the battle zone nearby. It also appears we go back to a +NAO, but one like last year that drives cold well into southern Canada. The EC now splits the 50mb vortex over the North Pole keeping a lobe down into Hudson Bay which will probably keep the cold into southern Canada at the very least. The se ridge is on both ensemble guidance now...by day 15 the cold to start the month looks pretty traisent....and like you said the -nao is not there for long...that blocking is really not ideal south of Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 The se ridge is on both ensemble guidance now...by day 15 the cold to start the month looks pretty traisent....and like you said the -nao is not there for long...that blocking is really not ideal south of Greenland I'm not too worried up here about it. I don't think it will be a huge deal temp wise overall to New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Still got to watch the ridge in AK that might retro in early January. This also opens up the door for a major storm. I still think any retro may be replaced by higher heights near the west coast after that towards mid month. You want storms, then you want the battle zone nearby. It also appears we go back to a +NAO, but one like last year that drives cold well into southern Canada. The EC now splits the 50mb vortex over the North Pole keeping a lobe down into Hudson Bay which will probably keep the cold into southern Canada at the very least. kind of a funky pattern by the end of the ensembles. actually resembles the weeklies with that growing positive height anomaly east of us. the position of the vortex over Hudson Bay is going to be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Great graphic by Ant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The 00z EURO looks great at hour 240, awesome shortwave. lol. Of course it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Great graphic by Ant The graphic is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 End of January early February is too far out to worry about. If the pattern change is really upon us (and our professionals seem to agree on it), then things will at least be more interesting over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The graphic is bad.splain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 splain Snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Snowfall.ok what's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 ok what's wrong I'm guessing snowfall totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 ok what's wrong Look for yourself. The totals seem off. 70" in 2007-2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Plus the little picture of the cloud with snow falling grossly oversimplifies the meteorological processes involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Also, the graph doesn't match up with the totals on the bottom, totals on the graph are consistently higher than the numbers in the table(Which I think are correct, making the graph too high). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Plus the little picture of the cloud with snow falling grossly oversimplifies the meteorological processes involved. Hahaha this comment cracked me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Ah I see the problem now, phone screen FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Out of curiosity, how did the GFS op and GEFS look? Out with the masses Christmas shopping FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Out of curiosity, how did the GFS op and GEFS look? Out with the masses Christmas shopping FTL Haven't had the chance to look closely, but both like the idea of a system around the 12/30-31 timeframe which looks like it could be wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Haven't had the chance to look closely, but both like the idea of a system around the 12/30-31 timeframe which looks like it could be wintry. Yeah I was surprised the GEFS had this decent a signal so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Out of curiosity, how did the GFS op and GEFS look? Out with the masses Christmas shopping FTL They look good...Hudson Bay PV and AK ridge...pretty active pattern it looks like too and plenty of cold. Looks like somewhat of an east-based -NAO late in the period...which would be good with the way the PAC is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 They look good...Hudson Bay PV and AK ridge...pretty active pattern it looks like too and plenty of cold. Looks like somewhat of an east-based -NAO late in the period...which would be good with the way the PAC is. Sounds good. Seems like a nice recipe for branching Scooter HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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